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May 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


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26 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m growing into believing pattern recognition and intuition is an important element in long range forecasting. So don’t sell yourself short.

You never really know how things are gonna wind up here. Spring/summer 2019 was a great example. Spring was super dry and seemed like we were destined for another warm dry summer IMO but we ended up being decently wet throughout the summer. 
 In other good news though...Looks like this might be the first May since 2013 without any +80 high temps. Still a decent amount of uncertainty on where this month will end up in terms of average temps but a good shot at it being the coolest may since 2012. Not too hard to pull off considering how torchy the month has been recently but even a +1.0 May would be the coldest since 2012. Good shot we end up average or +1.0. Maybe we will get to average or above average rainfall too! Still lots of time for things to change though. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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12Z ECMWF is warm and pretty wet into the holiday weekend... that would be a new combination that we have not seen much this year. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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59F and mostly cloudy. Pls rain.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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40 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is warm and pretty wet into the holiday weekend... that would be a new combination that we have not seen much this year. 

Would be a blessing.

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5 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

We are doing the final vaccine clinic here in town today at the Heavenly parking lot. We have been under an incredible lake effect snow band for 4 hours now and it is still a total whiteout. Temp is 32F with about 6" so far. 

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Looks like heaven. I remember that stuff from Feb 2019.

Approaching the longest amount of time I've ever gone without experiencing snow in some way. I've never gone 3 straight winters without at least seeing snow falling somewhere.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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44 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like heaven. I remember that stuff from Feb 2019.

Approaching the longest amount of time I've ever gone without experiencing snow in some way. I've never gone 3 straight winters without at least seeing snow falling somewhere.

Up to like 8" now and a total whiteout still. 

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It would be nice to have a double Juneuary as January is always as warm as June anymore down this way. Then again, this past Feb was also above normal here too so really the entire winter was devoid of anything notable. Easily the worst one since...last winter.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Still snowing here and 29 degrees as we approach 3pm...on May 21st.

Just starting to realize the historical nature of this airmass. Latest high at or below freezing was set on May 1st 1954 at BZN and May 12th 1953 at Bozeman MSU.

Airport is currently sitting right at 32F as is MSU. Would be really incredible to break that record by three weeks! 

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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2 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like heaven. I remember that stuff from Feb 2019.

Approaching the longest amount of time I've ever gone without experiencing snow in some way. I've never gone 3 straight winters without at least seeing snow falling somewhere.

But global warming is a right wing conspiracy theory and we are heading into an ice age! 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤮🔫  You must retract your statement or be censored by Lord Breitbart!

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Beautiful... it was sunny here for probably 75% of the day.

We just had dinner outside and it was a tad chilly but otherwise lovely. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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4 hours ago, Kayla said:

Still snowing here and 29 degrees as we approach 3pm...on May 21st.

Just starting to realize the historical nature of this airmass. Latest high at or below freezing was set on May 1st 1954 at BZN and May 12th 1953 at Bozeman MSU.

Airport is currently sitting right at 32F as is MSU. Would be really incredible to break that record by three weeks! 

Analog(s)?!?

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21 minutes ago, Phil said:

Analog(s)?!?

Really ugly (dry) years for here so I hope not!

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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The 32 degree high did indeed hold up at BZN. Breaks today's record low high by a whopping 13 degrees and will now go into the books as the latest freezing high on record (records go back to 1935).

@BLI snowman Mark another historically cold airmass up! ;)

701564375_ScreenShot2021-05-21at8_36_44PM.thumb.png.1f9f66d6581a9b132fd9c926c82b7839.png

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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15 minutes ago, Kayla said:

The 32 degree did indeed hold up at BZN. Breaks today's record low high by a whopping 13 degrees and will now go into the books as the latest freezing high on record (records go back to 1935).

@BLI snowman Mark another historically cold airmass up! ;)

701564375_ScreenShot2021-05-21at8_36_44PM.thumb.png.1f9f66d6581a9b132fd9c926c82b7839.png

So refreshing to see some kind of impressive cold record again, in May no less.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Massive emergence tonight. Easily a full order of magnitude higher than previous nights.

Went inside and realized there were two nymphs and one mature cicada riding me. 

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14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Massive emergence tonight. Easily a full order of magnitude higher than previous nights.

Went inside and realized there were two nymphs and one mature cicada riding me. 

You really should only be riding mature nymphs.

image.jpeg.0c86c6d45380983c198e622e0b9ee1a4.jpeg

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 hour ago, Kayla said:

The 32 degree high did indeed hold up at BZN. Breaks today's record low high by a whopping 13 degrees and will now go into the books as the latest freezing high on record (records go back to 1935).

@BLI snowman Mark another historically cold airmass up! ;)

701564375_ScreenShot2021-05-21at8_36_44PM.thumb.png.1f9f66d6581a9b132fd9c926c82b7839.png

I wonder if we can go a decade without a sub-freezing high here? I don't think that feat has happened since the Medieval Warm Period.

Now at like almost 1600 days since our last one. By far the longest stretch on record...fuckking depressing and I want to move my family so bad. 😞

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

So refreshing to see some kind of impressive cold record again, in May no less.

There have been numerous record cold air masses in North America throughout the last decade.   They have never gone away.   But the climate is still warming.   Both can exist.

In fact... one such record cold air mass last September kicked off the firestorm in Oregon.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

So refreshing to see some kind of impressive cold record again, in May no less.

One day I will experience a temp below 12F in my life.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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3 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I wonder if we can go a decade without a sub-freezing high here? I don't think that feat has happened since the Medieval Warm Period.

Now at like almost 1600 days since our last one. By far the longest stretch on record...fuckking depressing and I want to move my family so bad. 😞

Welcome to the club! I'm with ya.  I think we are in another Medieval Warm Period in the making. Of course we will still have some 'cooler' periods but more warm with these cooler periods being our old 'average'.

We need to get used to this and prepare accordingly or water wars will be our future though WA will somehow be spared until we all move up there and bring our drought with us.

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Finally have some good news on the tropical forcing front. Models have trended much lower in amplitude with the WPAC forcing (on aggregate). So the western ridge might be relatively short lived.

We could be back in the “cool” phases 1-4 (for PNW in JJA, specifically) before the summer solstice. And the current (weak) troughy pattern has another week to run.

 

AD806AE3-540E-449E-A5E9-58852CA8FB1D.gif

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Looks like most of the world has seen an uptick in total column water vapor in the period of new climate normals.

Of course, the SW US has dried out under the strengthening influence of the Hadley Cell descending branch. Also an interesting anomaly in the SE-Pacific. 

CDB21EB4-8073-4B3A-9395-4F5AC17A5FDC.jpeg

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