TacomaWaWx Posted May 21, 2021 Report Share Posted May 21, 2021 26 minutes ago, Phil said: I’m growing into believing pattern recognition and intuition is an important element in long range forecasting. So don’t sell yourself short. You never really know how things are gonna wind up here. Spring/summer 2019 was a great example. Spring was super dry and seemed like we were destined for another warm dry summer IMO but we ended up being decently wet throughout the summer. In other good news though...Looks like this might be the first May since 2013 without any +80 high temps. Still a decent amount of uncertainty on where this month will end up in terms of average temps but a good shot at it being the coolest may since 2012. Not too hard to pull off considering how torchy the month has been recently but even a +1.0 May would be the coldest since 2012. Good shot we end up average or +1.0. Maybe we will get to average or above average rainfall too! Still lots of time for things to change though. 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted May 21, 2021 Report Share Posted May 21, 2021 Pretty chilly day so far socked in with clouds and a marine layer. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 21, 2021 Report Share Posted May 21, 2021 12Z ECMWF is warm and pretty wet into the holiday weekend... that would be a new combination that we have not seen much this year. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 21, 2021 Report Share Posted May 21, 2021 I can't remember the last time we saw a broad area of warmer than normal 850mb temps with widespread rain. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 21, 2021 Report Share Posted May 21, 2021 Sun is partially out here... and it's garbage day. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted May 21, 2021 Report Share Posted May 21, 2021 59F and mostly cloudy. Pls rain. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted May 21, 2021 Report Share Posted May 21, 2021 We are doing the final vaccine clinic here in town today at the Heavenly parking lot. We have been under an incredible lake effect snow band for 4 hours now and it is still a total whiteout. Temp is 32F with about 6" so far. 7 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 21, 2021 Report Share Posted May 21, 2021 40 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z ECMWF is warm and pretty wet into the holiday weekend... that would be a new combination that we have not seen much this year. Would be a blessing. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted May 21, 2021 Report Share Posted May 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, AlTahoe said: We are doing the final vaccine clinic here in town today at the Heavenly parking lot. We have been under an incredible lake effect snow band for 4 hours now and it is still a total whiteout. Temp is 32F with about 6" so far. Looks like heaven. I remember that stuff from Feb 2019. Approaching the longest amount of time I've ever gone without experiencing snow in some way. I've never gone 3 straight winters without at least seeing snow falling somewhere. 1 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted May 21, 2021 Report Share Posted May 21, 2021 44 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Looks like heaven. I remember that stuff from Feb 2019. Approaching the longest amount of time I've ever gone without experiencing snow in some way. I've never gone 3 straight winters without at least seeing snow falling somewhere. Up to like 8" now and a total whiteout still. 7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted May 21, 2021 Report Share Posted May 21, 2021 It would be nice to have a double Juneuary as January is always as warm as June anymore down this way. Then again, this past Feb was also above normal here too so really the entire winter was devoid of anything notable. Easily the worst one since...last winter. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted May 21, 2021 Report Share Posted May 21, 2021 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: I can't remember the last time we saw a broad area of warmer than normal 850mb temps with widespread rain. Gonna feel tropical and moonsoony Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted May 21, 2021 Report Share Posted May 21, 2021 15 minutes ago, AlTahoe said: Up to like 8" now and a total whiteout still. I think I should move to Tahoe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted May 21, 2021 Report Share Posted May 21, 2021 Still snowing here and 29 degrees as we approach 3pm...on May 21st. Just starting to realize the historical nature of this airmass. Latest high at or below freezing was set on May 1st 1954 at BZN and May 12th 1953 at Bozeman MSU. Airport is currently sitting right at 32F as is MSU. Would be really incredible to break that record by three weeks! 8 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 21, 2021 Report Share Posted May 21, 2021 FWIW... the 12Z EPS is wall to wall warmth for the 8-15 day period. 5 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Link Posted May 21, 2021 Report Share Posted May 21, 2021 2 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Looks like heaven. I remember that stuff from Feb 2019. Approaching the longest amount of time I've ever gone without experiencing snow in some way. I've never gone 3 straight winters without at least seeing snow falling somewhere. But global warming is a right wing conspiracy theory and we are heading into an ice age! You must retract your statement or be censored by Lord Breitbart! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted May 22, 2021 Report Share Posted May 22, 2021 Nice day. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2021 Report Share Posted May 22, 2021 27 minutes ago, MossMan said: Nice day. Beautiful... it was sunny here for probably 75% of the day. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted May 22, 2021 Report Share Posted May 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Beautiful... it was sunny here for probably 75% of the day. We just had dinner outside and it was a tad chilly but otherwise lovely. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 22, 2021 Report Share Posted May 22, 2021 61/43 day here. Dry but at least the high underachieved by several degrees. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 22, 2021 Report Share Posted May 22, 2021 4 hours ago, Kayla said: Still snowing here and 29 degrees as we approach 3pm...on May 21st. Just starting to realize the historical nature of this airmass. Latest high at or below freezing was set on May 1st 1954 at BZN and May 12th 1953 at Bozeman MSU. Airport is currently sitting right at 32F as is MSU. Would be really incredible to break that record by three weeks! Analog(s)?!? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 22, 2021 Report Share Posted May 22, 2021 Hints of a jet on the EPS. Need to extend it further, though. 1 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted May 22, 2021 Report Share Posted May 22, 2021 21 minutes ago, Phil said: Analog(s)?!? Really ugly (dry) years for here so I hope not! Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted May 22, 2021 Report Share Posted May 22, 2021 The 32 degree high did indeed hold up at BZN. Breaks today's record low high by a whopping 13 degrees and will now go into the books as the latest freezing high on record (records go back to 1935). @BLI snowman Mark another historically cold airmass up! 5 1 2 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted May 22, 2021 Report Share Posted May 22, 2021 15 minutes ago, Kayla said: The 32 degree did indeed hold up at BZN. Breaks today's record low high by a whopping 13 degrees and will now go into the books as the latest freezing high on record (records go back to 1935). @BLI snowman Mark another historically cold airmass up! So refreshing to see some kind of impressive cold record again, in May no less. 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 22, 2021 Report Share Posted May 22, 2021 Massive emergence tonight. Easily a full order of magnitude higher than previous nights. Went inside and realized there were two nymphs and one mature cicada riding me. IMG_0571.mov 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 22, 2021 Report Share Posted May 22, 2021 62/43 today. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 22, 2021 Report Share Posted May 22, 2021 14 minutes ago, Phil said: Massive emergence tonight. Easily a full order of magnitude higher than previous nights. Went inside and realized there were two nymphs and one mature cicada riding me. IMG_0571.mov You really should only be riding mature nymphs. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 22, 2021 Report Share Posted May 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: You really should only be riding mature nymphs. I was the victim bruh. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted May 22, 2021 Report Share Posted May 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Kayla said: The 32 degree high did indeed hold up at BZN. Breaks today's record low high by a whopping 13 degrees and will now go into the books as the latest freezing high on record (records go back to 1935). @BLI snowman Mark another historically cold airmass up! I wonder if we can go a decade without a sub-freezing high here? I don't think that feat has happened since the Medieval Warm Period. Now at like almost 1600 days since our last one. By far the longest stretch on record...fuckking depressing and I want to move my family so bad. 1 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2021 Report Share Posted May 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said: So refreshing to see some kind of impressive cold record again, in May no less. There have been numerous record cold air masses in North America throughout the last decade. They have never gone away. But the climate is still warming. Both can exist. In fact... one such record cold air mass last September kicked off the firestorm in Oregon. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted May 22, 2021 Report Share Posted May 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said: So refreshing to see some kind of impressive cold record again, in May no less. One day I will experience a temp below 12F in my life. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted May 22, 2021 Author Report Share Posted May 22, 2021 3 hours ago, Phil said: Hints of a jet on the EPS. Need to extend it further, though. Which ensemble member is the driest out of the 50? That one should stand the best chance at verifying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted May 22, 2021 Report Share Posted May 22, 2021 2 hours ago, Phil said: Massive emergence tonight. Easily a full order of magnitude higher than previous nights. Went inside and realized there were two nymphs and one mature cicada riding me. IMG_0571.mov That is just insane! YUK! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 22, 2021 Report Share Posted May 22, 2021 Should be a total washout Memorial Day weekend... for the central BC coast. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Link Posted May 22, 2021 Report Share Posted May 22, 2021 3 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: I wonder if we can go a decade without a sub-freezing high here? I don't think that feat has happened since the Medieval Warm Period. Now at like almost 1600 days since our last one. By far the longest stretch on record...fuckking depressing and I want to move my family so bad. Welcome to the club! I'm with ya. I think we are in another Medieval Warm Period in the making. Of course we will still have some 'cooler' periods but more warm with these cooler periods being our old 'average'. We need to get used to this and prepare accordingly or water wars will be our future though WA will somehow be spared until we all move up there and bring our drought with us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 22, 2021 Report Share Posted May 22, 2021 Got down to 46 here this morning. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 22, 2021 Report Share Posted May 22, 2021 13 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Got down to 46 here this morning. Low of 46 here as well. 48 currently with a thicc marine layer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 22, 2021 Report Share Posted May 22, 2021 Finally have some good news on the tropical forcing front. Models have trended much lower in amplitude with the WPAC forcing (on aggregate). So the western ridge might be relatively short lived. We could be back in the “cool” phases 1-4 (for PNW in JJA, specifically) before the summer solstice. And the current (weak) troughy pattern has another week to run. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 22, 2021 Report Share Posted May 22, 2021 Looks like most of the world has seen an uptick in total column water vapor in the period of new climate normals. Of course, the SW US has dried out under the strengthening influence of the Hadley Cell descending branch. Also an interesting anomaly in the SE-Pacific. 2 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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