Phil Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 00z/06z models improved in the medium-long range. Can 12z continue that trend? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, Phil said: 00z/06z models improved in the medium-long range. Can 12z continue that trend? I honestly have no idea what this means, because “improved” rests so subjectively on the sort of weather you are now personally desiring to see. (Part of it is that I have not been following the conversation here very closely.) More rain? More sun? Less heat and humidity in the swamp in which you live? Something else? 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 Sorry for OT ramblings but man, this is an incredible display by Mother Nature. Today we can hear the cicada chorus even in the basement. Ear splitting. Gets disorientating if you’re outside for too long. Craziest thing is, every now and then all of the cicadas on one tree will fly up like a thick cloud then dart over to a neighboring tree. Can’t go 10 seconds without one landing on your head or torso. Estimating a 50% increase in numbers (locally) compared to 2004. Probably (in part) related to the fact conditions in 2004 were extremely favorable for cicadas to reproduce. Also the fact we’re surrounded by protected forestland that hasn’t been touched in over a century. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 59/49 spread here yesterday with .35" rainfall. .10" so far today, good to see but we could use a lot more. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: I honestly have no idea what this means, because “improved” rests so subjectively on the sort of weather you are now personally desiring to see. (Part of it is that I have not been following the conversation here very closely.) More rain? More sun? Less heat and humidity in the swamp in which you live? Something else? Probably means it's looking nice. Some good weather ahead. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 10 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: I honestly have no idea what this means, because “improved” rests so subjectively on the sort of weather you are now personally desiring to see. (Part of it is that I have not been following the conversation here very closely.) More rain? More sun? Less heat and humidity in the swamp in which you live? Something else? Euro/EPS and the 06z GFS are hinting at a +EPO/jet pattern as westerly momentum increases. Also trending weaker with the WPAC MJO transit. Maybe the hot pattern will be short lived and followed by a crash. 2 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 Some heavy showers out there this morning. Might double our monthly rainfall! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 Ended up with 0.64" yesterday and another 0.27" so far today. Now the grass is back to growing quickly. Perfect timing for a good soaking before the holiday weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 Pretty incredible downpour yesterday in Salmon Creek, looks like about 1.47" fell in under an hour from 6pm-7pm https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAVANCO486/table/2021-05-24/2021-05-24/daily 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 12z GFS is less enthused..but then again it has been over-bullish on western ridging all year. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 Close to getting a t'storm yesterday evening... According to NWS, 4 lightning strikes were recorded in Klamath County. Today is another slight possibility, so let's make it count. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 Today 9 years ago I woke up to 1/2" of snow. That was my latest measurable snowfall I've observed, and it occurred after our first 80+ degree weather of the year. 2 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted May 25, 2021 Author Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 0.26" system total, which has exceeded my very low expectations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 39 minutes ago, Phil said: 12z GFS is less enthused..but then again it has been over-bullish on western ridging all year. Ummmm...well, it certainly was warm here in DJF as all 3 of those months were above normal but I'm not sure models were advertising constant warmth in this part of the region in that time period. It shifted things north and made things less-impressive, and ultimately the ridging was closer to us. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted May 25, 2021 Author Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/05/a-wet-week-plus-full-reservoirs-should.html I guess Oregon is not in the PNW according to Cliff Mass 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 I’ve been in a pretty good spot for downpours in the last 48 hours. About .65 of rain so far from them. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 1 hour ago, BLI snowman said: Pretty incredible downpour yesterday in Salmon Creek, looks like about 1.47" fell in under an hour from 6pm-7pm https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAVANCO486/table/2021-05-24/2021-05-24/daily I was about a mile east of there and the parking lot of the sports complex was floody. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 27 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/05/a-wet-week-plus-full-reservoirs-should.html I guess Oregon is not in the PNW according to Cliff Mass I mean, Eugene and south basically isn't anymore. This past winter hammered that home. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 Came across this on The Facebook last night from the beach. Two things struck me: 1. The attendees probably had NO idea that atmospheric indices were flashing RED at the time for the upcoming winter, despite the warning to “WATCH FOR SIGNS” 2. People celebrated weird sh*t back then. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 A good bit of rain in the last 24 hours for SW Washington and a lot of the Willamette Valley. I'm the 0.91" in Clark County. 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Came across this on The Facebook last night from the beach. Two things struck me: 1. The attendees probably had NO idea that atmospheric indices were flashing RED at the time for the upcoming winter, despite the warning to “WATCH FOR SIGNS” 2. People celebrated weird . Just checked local records and June 12, 1949 was a 72/35 day in the Snoqualmie Valley... so I assume it was sunny here and down there. But that is an unheard of spread for June in our current climate regime. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted May 25, 2021 Author Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 31 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: I mean, Eugene and south basically isn't anymore. This past winter hammered that home. You could make a legitimate argument that the "PNW" ends as far north as the 44th parallel, just south of Eugene and Bend. The coast range starts to transition into the Siskiyous, increasing in elevation and preventing marine layers from reaching inland (summer in southern OR is nearly constant sunshine without marine layers). The number of rain days per year starts to fall going southwards from 44N and really declines rapidly south of 43N. As such, the California floristic province begins to take hold and species like canyon live oak, black oak, and sugar pine become much more common south of 44N - these are both drought-resistant and grow in higher elevations. The northern edge of the Great Basin also runs pretty close to 44N in central to eastern Oregon. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Just checked local records and June 12, 1949 was a 72/35 day in the Snoqualmie Valley... so I assume it was sunny here and down there. But that is an unheard of spread for June in our current climate regime. Warrenton is on the coast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Warrenton is on the coast. Yeah... but with that kind of spread here the air mass must have been very dry. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Yeah... but with that kind of spread here the air mass must have been very dry. 66/39 at Astoria that day. Likely some fog at Columbia Beach Rodeo Grounds for the latter part of the event. Even rained substantially a few days later 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 Nice to see lots of spots down in Oregon got some nice rain totals. Not enough to reverse the past couple dry months but much better than nothing. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 55 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: You could make a legitimate argument that the "PNW" ends as far north as the 44th parallel, just south of Eugene and Bend. The coast range starts to transition into the Siskiyous, increasing in elevation and preventing marine layers from reaching inland (summer in southern OR is nearly constant sunshine without marine layers). The number of rain days per year starts to fall going southwards from 44N and really declines rapidly south of 43N. As such, the California floristic province begins to take hold and species like canyon live oak, black oak, and sugar pine become much more common south of 44N - these are both drought-resistant and grow in higher elevations. The northern edge of the Great Basin also runs pretty close to 44N in central to eastern Oregon. Indeed. I'm something of a botany geek, and the flora to use in Southern Oregon is the Jepson Manual (i.e. the key to the plants of California). Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: I mean, Eugene and south basically isn't anymore. This past winter hammered that home. You’ve had a string of disappointing winters, but that doesn’t mean you are not part of the PNW. Vancouver, BC (the City of Vancouver proper, outlying areas have fared significantly better) has had a string of such winters as well (and there was plenty of whining about it in the Canadian forum last winter). Granted, it’s not been the snow shut-out Eugene has had, but the annual snow totals tend to be higher up this way, so the end result is still anomalously low. And it’s not been that long since Eugene had some truly epic winter storms (of the sort points north missed out of). Your turn will happen again. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 Everyone knows the PNW ends at the Enchanted Forest. 1 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 12Z EPS shows the break down later next week... but it does not go into full troughing mode. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 Some accidental sunshine here... nature screwed up. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: You’ve had a string of disappointing winters, but that doesn’t mean you are not part of the PNW. Vancouver, BC (the City of Vancouver proper, outlying areas have fared significantly better) has had a string of such winters as well (and there was plenty of whining about it in the Canadian forum last winter). Granted, it’s not been the snow shut-out Eugene has had, but the annual snow totals tend to be higher up this way, so the end result is still anomalously low. And it’s not been that long since Eugene had some truly epic winter storms (of the sort points north missed out of). Your turn will happen again. I'm moreso speaking about the lack of cold anomalies. We had a legendary snow event in Feb, 2019 so that's not the issue at all. Has anywhere else in the PNW gone almost 1600 days since their last sub-freezing high? Also, when people called this past winter's event up your way a "regional event" I was like...okay so what region are we in? Since we're clearly not part of the PNW according to that logic. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS shows the break down later next week... but it does not go into full troughing mode. Whatever happens I’m certain it’ll result in a blowtorch here. Never fails. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 62 and partly sunny here nice day. Cool and breezy. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 New EPS weeklies suggest a nice bout of IO/E-Hem forcing begins around the summer solstice. Would fit the idea of a more sustained cool period later in June and into July. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 11 minutes ago, Phil said: New EPS weeklies suggest a nice bout of IO/E-Hem forcing begins around the summer solstice. Would fit the idea of a more sustained cool period later in June and into July. Will be booking a 4th of July trip accordingly! Of course that usually makes it end up being very nice here though. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Will be booking a 4th of July trip accordingly! Of course that usually makes it end up being very nice here though. Individual days can buck the average. Wouldn’t plan anything until 7-10 in advance, personally. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 Picked up a decent amount of rain over the past few days it appears. 3.90" on the month, we should hit average. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 25, 2021 Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 25 minutes ago, Phil said: Individual days can buck the average. Wouldn’t plan anything until 7-10 in advance, personally. Exactly... which is why we always book with free cancellation up to the day before. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted May 25, 2021 Author Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 Our central OR trip for the week of the Fourth was booked well in advance! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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