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May 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


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60 and partly sunny. NWS AFD made it sound like it’d be cloudy all day but that’s not the case atleast for now. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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6 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

60 and partly sunny. NWS AFD made it sound like it’d be cloudy all day but that’s not the case atleast for now. 

Gorgeous day here... up to 65 now.

20210526_122250.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Here’s a cool fact for you. The founder of great falls Montana...Paris Gibson is actually my great great grandfather. Still have quite a few relatives on my moms side living out in Montana. Haven’t been over there since I was like 7 though need to go back sometime soon. 

Oh that is very cool!

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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71F and absolutely beautiful. Not a cloud in the sky.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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My wife is safe back at home. Had to have emergency surgery last night so think good thoughts.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Update, probably not looking at recent model trends, but we should end up around average for the month which is 4.29”. We needed more this month, but at least it wasn’t a disaster.

That is music to my ears. 😍

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SSTA update... the NE Pacific has warmed considerably over the last week despite the troughy pattern.   

Also... the Indian Ocean has cooled a little while the WPAC has warmed.    I think Phil said we wanted the opposite for a cool, troughy summer?

7-day change on top and current SSTA map on the bottom:

 

 

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1 (4).png

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1 (1).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Can anyone recommend a good weather app other than wundergeound? I love it, but I'm tired of the glitches it's been having for me.

None of them lol.

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 hours ago, Kayla said:

Oh that is very cool!

My grandma has a letter from president Theodore Roosevelt sent to Paris Gibson back in 1906 I think inviting him to the whitehouse. It’s a very cool piece of family history. 

 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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41 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Can anyone recommend a good weather app other than wundergeound? I love it, but I'm tired of the glitches it's been having for me.

For free apps like Wunderground, WeatherBug is decent. Only thing I don’t like about it  is that it’s filled with ads. 
 

But if you’re willing to pay, RadarScope and Dark Sky are very good. I like Dark Sky. 

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9 minutes ago, Cloud said:

For free apps like Wunderground, WeatherBug is decent. Only thing I don’t like about it  is that it’s filled with ads. 
 

But if you’re willing to pay, RadarScope and Dark Sky are very good. I like Dark Sky. 

Thanks, I'll check them out

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1 hour ago, The Blob said:

Can anyone recommend a good weather app other than wundergeound? I love it, but I'm tired of the glitches it's been having for me.

Weathermate is worth the couple bucks. It has a lot of customisation.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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4 hours ago, The Blob said:

Can anyone recommend a good weather app other than wundergeound? I love it, but I'm tired of the glitches it's been having for me.

I use Dark Sky, seems to be decent. 

54F26748-2E9B-4669-98DB-B542F909AEE5.jpeg

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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The calm before the storm... ECMWF shows about 1.5 inches of rain here in the next 36 hours before we finally get a very well-timed break.   

 

nb 50267.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The calm before the storm... ECMWF shows about 1.5 inches of rain here in the next 36 hours before we finally get a very well-timed break.   

 

nb 50267.png

You know we are SO overdue for a long dry period! I can't wait to smell more smoke!!! Neither can my smoke alarms! I am SICK of the green grass. 

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1 minute ago, Link said:

The sky is all hazy and a total white out here.  Started off beautiful.  🤮

🛸

🙃

Its just high clouds moving in ahead of the incoming system.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Link said:

You know we are SO overdue for a long dry period! I can't wait to smell more smoke!!! Neither can my smoke alarms! I am SICK of the green grass. 

You should move up here.   All the rain and green grass you could ever want!    We are actually due for a dry spell after tomorrow.   I am sure we will have 4+ inches of rain in June as well... not a concern.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

High of 68 today. Turned out much nicer than I expected. 

Overall, average temp so far this May is 54.6 which is -3.8 on the month. This weekend should help skew that a little closer to normal but not sure if it will be enough to turn this from being a cooler and wetter than normal month.

There is no way 3 days can skew a -3.8 average for 28 days to normal unless its like 100+ degrees each of those days.

SEA is only -0.7 on the month and I believe that is using the new averages so it eliminates the UHI effect.     To that point... OLM is at -0.6 for the month.    Jared might have lost his big talking point.   😄

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

I think Sea has locked in the coldest May since 2012.  Which to be honest hasn’t felt like it. Must be due to clearer nights and no major heatwaves. 

It has been very pleasant. I am camping in Cle Elum for  the weekend and glad to see the nice weather will hold up. 

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5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

SSTA update... the NE Pacific has warmed considerably over the last week despite the troughy pattern.   

Also... the Indian Ocean has cooled a little while the WPAC has warmed.    I think Phil said we wanted the opposite for a cool, troughy summer?

7-day change on top and current SSTA map on the bottom:

 

 

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1 (4).png

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1 (1).png

Not sure I’m seeing the same thing you are?

Yes, anomalous WPAC warmth/OHC between 160E - Dateline is a strong teleconnection for warm western summers (when active on low/medium pass). However, the warming observed now is centered around the Maritime continent, closer to 120E.

The cooling is observed in W-IO (more -IOD signature) as opposed to E-IO/Maritime Continent. Overall it’s a move towards a more canonical La Niña IPWP structure. Though not necessarily a cool PNW teleconnection, either.

And that’s also a strong -PDO/-PMM signature..very much La Niña esque. Actually, more-so than I was expecting a few months ago. Strengthens my conviction in a return to -ENSO conditions this fall/winter. 

 

 

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5 hours ago, The Blob said:

Can anyone recommend a good weather app other than wundergeound? I love it, but I'm tired of the glitches it's been having for me.

AWeather. Basically a NWS app. Has all AFDs, visible satellite, point and click NWS forecasts, customizable favorite locations which you can assign names to.

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At long last, had a big league storm roar through around sunset. Quick inch of rain with strobe lightning and 60-70mph winds. Ground soaked it right up..barely any runoff.

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

The calm before the storm... ECMWF shows about 1.5 inches of rain here in the next 36 hours before we finally get a very well-timed break.   

 

nb 50267.png

Ugh. Was hoping to get a mow in today but ended up weedeating for hours and then had other commitments. Looks like I will be mowing on Saturday instead. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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24 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Ugh. Was hoping to get a mow in today but ended up weedeating for hours and then had other commitments. Looks like I will be mowing on Saturday instead. 

Friday afternoon looks pretty nice.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Not sure I’m seeing the same thing you are?

Yes, anomalous WPAC warmth/OHC between 160E - Dateline is a strong teleconnection for warm western summers (when active on low/medium pass). However, the warming observed now is centered around the Maritime continent, closer to 120E.

The cooling is observed in W-IO (more -IOD signature) as opposed to E-IO/Maritime Continent. Overall it’s a move towards a more canonical La Niña IPWP structure. Though not necessarily a cool PNW teleconnection, either.

And that’s also a strong -PDO/-PMM signature..very much La Niña esque. Actually, more-so than I was expecting a few months ago. Strengthens my conviction in a return to -ENSO conditions this fall/winter. 

 

 

 

Good information.    I had no idea what a -PMM signature was until you started talking about it in March and April.  

I know you hate these WB maps... but there has not been a -PMM signature like this since 2013.    

Current map on top and map for 5/25/2013 on the bottom:

2021 (10).png

2013 (2).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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44 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Good information.    I had no idea what a -PMM signature was until you started talking about it in March and April.  

I know you hate these WB maps... but there has not been a -PMM signature like this since 2013.    

Current map on top and map for 5/25/2013 on the bottom:

2021 (10).png

2013 (2).png

Yes, though you can see the building +SSTAs across the subtropical N and S Pacific in 2013 (w/ -ENSO signature sandwiched in between). We were trending into +PMM/+PDO that year. 

That trend is also reflected (externally) by the inverted SSTA signatures over the IO and Atlantic compared to 2021 (+IOD/chilly E-IO and Atlantic tripole).

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50 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Good information.    I had no idea what a -PMM signature was until you started talking about it in March and April.  

I know you hate these WB maps... but there has not been a -PMM signature like this since 2013.    

Current map on top and map for 5/25/2013 on the bottom:

2021 (10).png

2013 (2).png

Fun winter followed.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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14 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The 00z GFS is brutal. Hotter and longer-lasting with the high pressure. No relief until day 12. If I was a betting man, I would put money on something similar to this verifying. Endless 80s with a couple of 90s sprinkled in. 

Makes sense to me. Rushing the cool down (which looks transient anyway). Don’t see sustained troughing developing until sometime around the solstice.

14 hours ago, Phil said:

Inflection/bifurcation point in tropical forcing denotes boundary for 1st of 2 western warm periods this month. Peak warmth June 4-7th as WPAC blossoms, then a (transient) cool down second week of June ahead of the next warm up.

 

CDA1E128-6F1E-4A52-BBDD-20075455FF3F.jpeg


Another ridge seems probable for mid-June, just before convection enters the IO/EHEM around the summer solstice, at which point a more consistent troughy pattern can emerge.

 

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48 minutes ago, Phil said:

Makes sense to me. Rushing the cool down (which looks transient anyway). Don’t see sustained troughing developing until sometime around the solstice.

 

It is exceedingly rare for the first 3 weeks of June to be warm and dry around here.    Technically that did not even happen in 2015... the first 4 days of June were cool and troughy that month and it rained here each day.   And then not again until the last day of the month.

I just ran through the 500mb map for the summer of 2013... in late June that year we got into a pattern with a trough just offshore.   This ended up being quite warm around here.    Could you be seeing a troughy pattern that ends up like this?   I wonder if there will a large SW ridge this summer due to drought feedback.

compday.Wf2RJ8tIUN.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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