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May 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


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22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It is exceedingly rare for the first 3 weeks of June to be warm and dry around here.    Technically that did not even happen in 2015... the first 4 days of June were cool and troughy that month and it rained here each day.   And then not again until the last day of the month.

I just ran through the 500mb map for the summer of 2013... in late June that year we got into a pattern with a trough just offshore.   This ended up being quite warm around here.    Could you be seeing a troughy pattern that ends up like this?   I wonder if there will a large SW ridge this summer due to drought feedback.

compday.Wf2RJ8tIUN.gif

Possibly, yes. That’s a pretty typical WPAC MJO pattern and manifests quite consistently under the phase 6-8 transit at this time of year. Which is precisely what we have upcoming.

I suspect we’ll diverge from 2013 more frequently as time progresses, though. That was a WPAC-centric low pass summer, while 2021 has more of an IO-IPWP low pass (though intraseasonal cycle appears dominant still, so it’s not a strong hold by any means).

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Phase-7 (WPAC) MJO climo for late May.

Unsurprisingly, very similar to the pattern we have coming up.

 

F6271DD7-2C32-449E-9A22-CAED2ABC0123.png

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Phase-7 MJO climo for late May.

Unsurprisingly, very similar to the pattern we have coming up.

 

F6271DD7-2C32-449E-9A22-CAED2ABC0123.png

 

Just checked the MJO forecasts and almost all of the models show it meandering in circles in either phase 6 or 7 for the next 2 weeks at least.     Its definitely not progressing quickly through each phase any longer.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Phase-7 (WPAC) MJO climo for late May.

Unsurprisingly, very similar to the pattern we have coming up.

 

F6271DD7-2C32-449E-9A22-CAED2ABC0123.png

Low and behold, EPS MJO forecast:

 

13F5EC98-665D-4713-876C-3CA7E999AF83.gif

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Just checked the MJO forecasts and almost all of the models show it meandering in circles in either phase 6 or 7 for the next 2 weeks at least.     Its definitely not progressing quickly through each phase any longer.

That’s an artifact of poor model skill and the fact those are unfiltered phase diagrams. Remember when it looked to meander in phase 1-2?

In reality the MJO will continue propagating and we’ll have another phase 8-1-2 transition later in June.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Low and behold, EPS MJO forecast:

 

13F5EC98-665D-4713-876C-3CA7E999AF83.gif

Good illustration... it was cranking through each phase for the last month and now its just a meandering mess.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

Possibly, yes. That’s a pretty typical WPAC MJO pattern and manifests quite consistently under the phase 6-8 transit at this time of year. Which is precisely what we have upcoming.

I suspect we’ll diverge from 2013 more frequently as time progresses, though. That was a WPAC-centric low pass summer, while 2021 has more of an IO-IPWP low pass (though intraseasonal cycle appears dominant still, so it’s not a strong hold by any means).

Does all that help the alarm panel notify you of trouble hot spots and aid you in a lamp test?

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

That’s an artifact of poor model skill and the fact those are unfiltered phase diagrams.

In reality the MJO will continue propagating and we’ll have another phase 8-1-2 transition later in June.


Interesting... I wonder if it will pick up speed then?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Good illustration... it was cranking through each phase for the last month and now its just a meandering mess.

It looks that way on those unfiltered phase diagrams but it won’t get stuck like that in reality. Or at least I don’t think so. Just like it didn’t get stuck in phase 1-2 earlier this month.

Models are notoriously slow/under-amplified with MJO at-range. Add in the fact you have contamination from CCKW + a modest low pass signal, and it turns into an (artificial) meandering mess. :) 

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Just now, Phil said:

It looks that way on those unfiltered phase diagrams but it won’t get stuck like that in reality. Just like it didn’t get stuck in phase 1-2 earlier this month.

Models are notoriously slow/under-amplified with MJO at-range. Add in the fact you have contamination from CCKW + a modest low pass signal, and it turns into an (artificial) meandering mess. :) 

If that is true and we are currently moving from phase 6 to 7 right now... then we should be doing an 8-1-2 transition next week?

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:


Interesting... I wonder if it will pick up speed then?

Probably not much change in speed? Might see a little loop in the IO/IP again like last week since that’s where the warmest waters (and low pass/standing wave) are located. But I don’t know.

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If that is true and we are currently moving from phase 6 to 7 right now... then we should be doing an 8-1-2 transition next week?

To be precise, there are two weak/emergent low pass signals that could serve to constructively interfere and hold MJO “signal” longer, even if the filtered component displays little to no change in speed. These are WPAC (phase 6-7) and IO (phase 2-3). So the RMMs likely will display a loop or slow in those regions.

Should be a rapid propagation (unfiltered for frequency) through phase 8-1 and phase 4-5. I think.

Might see little to no phase 8-1 amplitude with next pass, instead a dive from phase-7 right into phase 2-3. Probably later in June. But I’ve underestimated the speed on these cycles many times in the past.

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

To be precise, there are two weak/emergent low pass signals that could serve to constructively interfere and hold MJO “signal” longer, even if the filtered component displays little to no change in speed. These are WPAC (phase 6-7) and IO (phase 2-3). So the RMMs likely will display a loop or slow in those regions.

Should be a rapid propagation (unfiltered for frequency) through phase 8-1 and phase 4-5. I think.

Not sure what all that means... but we are very close to phase 8 now and if it's progressing then an 8-1-2 transition is going to happen way before the solstice.    But the EPS shows we are basically in the same place we are now as we get into the middle of June. 

When Jim was screaming about the 8-1-2 transition earlier this month... the forecast diagrams were very clear and showed a rapid progression through all 3 phases.   The same diagrams show nothing like that at all right now.   But you are saying it will happen again in late June.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure what all that means... but we are very close to phase 8 now and if it's progressing then an 8-1-2 transition is going to happen way before the solstice.    But the EPS shows we are basically in the same place we are now as we get into the middle of June. 

When Jim was screaming about the 8-1-2 transition earlier this month... the forecast diagrams were very clear and showed a rapid progression through all 3 phases.   The same diagrams show nothing like that at all right now.   But you are saying it will happen again in late June.

Yeah, what those unfiltered RMMs project can be highly state dependent. Hovmoller plots help decode the mess if you can visualize it.

For instance, the EPS VP200 hovmoller projection over the next 6+ weeks. Note the convection centered over the west pacific warm pool (and WHEM in general) into the second week of June, with subsidence over the IO. That’s a warm west signal at this time of year, and it doesn’t change until the second half of June:

1699E555-C2F6-4BF7-B0BC-271BD7FE642B.png

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10 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah, what those unfiltered RMMs project can be highly state dependent. Hovmoller plots help decode the mess if you can visualize it.

For instance, the EPS VP200 hovmoller projection over the next 6+ weeks. Note the convection centered over the west pacific warm pool (and WHEM in general) into the second week of June, with subsidence over the IO. That’s a warm west signal at this time of year, and it doesn’t change until the second half of June:

1699E555-C2F6-4BF7-B0BC-271BD7FE642B.png

I was using the same MJO forecast diagram back when Jim was all over the 8-1-2 transition.     I just typed MJO forecast into Google and that is the first link.   A month ago that same MJO forecast diagram clearly showed a rapid 8-1-2 transition which was in sync with what Jim was saying.   Now it shows a meandering mess stuck in phase 7.   Overall... I understand your point because I don't see the MJO progressing much for the next couple weeks so it might be the second half of June before it happens.   I am just confused why you are saying it will be progressive because if it is progressive then an 8-1-2 transition is coming up much sooner. 

 

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

Getting pretty anxious that we may not see a June 2015 redux this year.

It has nothing to do with that... I was challenging his assertion that its going to be warm and dry for the first 3 weeks of June which would be almost unprecedented and did not even happen in 2015.   I understand what he is seeing though.  Just don't believe it.  I think the 2nd and 3rd weeks of June will be troughy and cool. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I was using the same MJO forecast diagram back when Jim was all over the 8-1-2 transition.     I just typed MJO forecast into Google and that is the first link.   A month ago that same MJO forecast diagram clearly showed a rapid 8-1-2 transition which was in sync with what Jim was saying.   Now it shows a meandering mess stuck in phase 7.   Overall... I understand your point because I don't see the MJO progressing much for the next couple weeks so it might be the second half of June before it happens.   I am just confused why you are saying it will be progressive because if it is progressive then an 8-1-2 transition is coming up much sooner. 

 

 

Because there’s an MJO and a CCKW projected onto those RMM plots (along with a tropical cyclone in the IO in the near term, which should resolve today or tomorrow). I know it’s weird.

As for the PNW pattern, am also taking into account in-situ AAM transfers & wavetrains present. There’s wiggle room outside MJO, especially in phase-8 at this time of year (which has reduced correlations overall, unlike phase-7/WPAC which is a strong warm-west signal the vast majority of time).

Also, if I remember correctly, didn’t you think the MJO signal would die in phase-2 and loop back to phase 8-1? I recall models killing off the signal before phase-3, which turned out to be wrong.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Because there’s an MJO and a CCKW projected onto those RMM plots (along with a tropical cyclone in the IO in the near term, which should resolve today or tomorrow). I know it’s weird.

As for the PNW pattern, am also taking into account in-situ AAM transfers & wavetrains present. There’s wiggle room outside MJO, especially in phase-8 at this time of year (which has reduced correlations overall, unlike phase-7/WPAC which is a strong warm-west signal the vast majority of time).

Also, if I remember correctly, didn’t you think the MJO signal would die in phase-2 and loop back to phase 8-1?

Yeah... the only thing I know about the MJO is what you have told us.    I am clueless.  

Your predictions of upcoming big picture patterns are usually pretty accurate... but I generally assume it will happen faster than what you are predicting.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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59 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It has nothing to do with that... I was challenging his assertion that its going to be warm and dry for the first 3 weeks of June which would be almost unprecedented and did not even happen in 2015.   I understand what he is seeing though.  Just don't believe it.  I think the 2nd and 3rd weeks of June will be troughy and cool. 

Well, to be clear I don’t think the entire first three weeks will be warm and ridgy, as I said yesterday. :)

I think there’ll be a transient cool down during the second week of June followed by another ridge mid-month.

I think a more persistent -PNA/cool west pattern can establish around the equinox. Before then it looks ridgier than it does troughy, to me.

Doesn’t mean I’m correct, though.

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Looks like the rain is wrapping up for a few months now.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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FWIW, I said this back at the end of March. Think my original analog-based forecast was good. But I got cold feet after that and backtracked when I shouldn’t have.

Analogs even picked up this early June ridging (3rd paragraph). Of course nothing is perfect, and this probably won’t be either.

EA6ABC62-809B-402D-ADAC-FB607D899AEB.jpeg

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12 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Where is all of this rain? Currently cloudy/windy and 51. 
.02” so far on the day. 

Ur in the rain shadow it looks like. Down here looks like the rains going to continue on and off for awhile with SW flow. Maybe you’ll get a c-zone later on? 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Ur in the rain shadow it looks like. Down here looks like the rains going to continue on and off for awhile with SW flow. Maybe you’ll get a c-zone later on? 

Randy will get plenty of rain in the post-frontal period later today into tomorrow morning.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-2224800.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

FWIW, I said this back at the end of March. Think my original analog-based forecast was good. But I got cold feet after that and backtracked when I shouldn’t have.

Analogs even picked up this early June ridging (3rd paragraph). Of course nothing is perfect, and this probably won’t be either.

EA6ABC62-809B-402D-ADAC-FB607D899AEB.jpeg

What was the last July with a cool/troughy pattern? Seems the best we can hope for is the lack of a monster desert high.

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Looks like what was forecast to be a pretty good rain event up here won't amount to much. Morning guidance suggests maybe another 0.1-0.2" before the end of the day. Will probably end up with less than 1" of rain total on the month. Definitely breezy outside though currently with some gusts around 30 mph.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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Here we go a nice band of rain coming in. Suns out and it’s pretty breezy here in Tacoma.  Maybe some thunderstorms later today with the added heating?

18AE7FCA-4702-4CF2-87C9-111E2C49573D.jpeg

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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6 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

It’s been pretty breezy here all morning. 

Lots of small branches on the ground here with all the trees having leaves now. Might be an interesting weather day here...that band of rain seems to be intensifying. 

3A2B0EF8-DDD3-4E9C-B19B-E21A1ABA2953.jpeg

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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28 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lots of small branches on the ground here with all the trees having leaves now. Might be an interesting weather day here...that band of rain seems to be intensifying. 

3A2B0EF8-DDD3-4E9C-B19B-E21A1ABA2953.jpeg

I swear to god i always end up in these gaps and its soooo frustratingimage.thumb.png.dc1e6740713650cc9fad45aaef7b204a.png

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3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

I swear to god i always end up in these gaps and its soooo frustratingimage.thumb.png.dc1e6740713650cc9fad45aaef7b204a.png

That’s how I felt a couple weeks ago everyone around me seemed to be getting nailed but not me. I’m right in the bullseye this time though!

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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