May 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs

[The Blob]

Sunday looks like nice weather for being outside

[TT-SEA]

54 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

2 old-growth firs are about toast here in the downtown & Washburne districts of Springfield. These houses are only 160 years old so them being destroyed isn't that big of a deal. I'll make sure to send pictures of the devastation if I survive it.

The houses were built in 1860?   

[TacomaWaWx]

63 and mostly sunny here. Nice comfortable day out there. 

[TacomaWaWx]

This’ll be the second year in a row May outperformed April in terms of rainfall. It’s also looking like we will have less 70+ high temps in May compared to April. We might hit 80 here near the water on Sunday it’ll be close...could still wind up with our first May without an 80+ reading since 2013. It’s already a lock for coolest May since 2012 despite the warm weather coming. Finished the month with about 80% of normal rainfall as well. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Gfs was nice if your hoping for rain in the first week of June. 

[Phil]

22 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

This’ll be the second year in a row May outperformed April in terms of rainfall. It’s also looking like we will have less 70+ high temps in May compared to April. We might hit 80 here near the water on Sunday it’ll be close...could still wind up with our first May without an 80+ reading since 2013. It’s already a lock for coolest May since 2012 despite the warm weather coming. Finished the month with about 80% of normal rainfall as well. 

The convective tendencies and overall circulation(s) in the tropics do increasingly resemble the fabled pre-2013 regime, where -PMM/-PDO dominated.

Never saw this canonical -ENSO IPWP structure in 2016, 2017, or 2020 (all of which were -ENSO summers).

Could be over-thinking things, but I find it interesting.

[Phil]

Dr. Paul Roundy seems to have made a similar observation. I think it ties back to the IPWP being so well established (even have a return to -IOD now).

 

[MossMan]

57 minutes ago, Phil said:

Dr. Paul Roundy seems to have made a similar observation. I think it ties back to the IPWP being so well established (even have a return to -IOD now).

 

 

[T-Town]

Oh Spotify you know me so well. 
 

63 with mostly sunny skies. Kind of surprised to have IPA and Spotify on the deck weather today after yesterday’s storminess. 

[MossMan]

36 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Oh Spotify you know me so well. 
 

63 with mostly sunny skies. Kind of surprised to have IPA and Spotify on the deck weather today after yesterday’s storminess. 

Nice! I’m drinking a Margarita in a can and listening to the Octonauts theme song...

[Deweydog]

Lovely day.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

The houses were built in 1860?   

Yes and they have been upkept since the settlers arrived. Some of the oldest homes in the PNW. They were built before the city was founded.

[TacomaWaWx]

64/48 today. Running -0.8 for May as of today.

[T-Town]

54 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Nice! I’m drinking a Margarita in a can and listening to the Octonauts theme song...

Nice!  We are more in the “maybe the kids should get their own cell phone plans seeing as they are done with grad school and have jobs” phase of our lives. But we have enjoying a drink on the deck in common. And we like snow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Silverton was founded in 1853. Even up here Silver Falls City had a couple hundred people in the 1880s. Some of the early pioneer orchards survive at the park though none of the original structures exist.

The great Silverton Fire of 1865 burned over a million acres along the Cascade foothills and west slopes. I imagine some of the areas that burned in the Beachie Creek and Riverside Fires probably burned then. 

[TT-SEA]

00Z runs are just perpetual deep troughing... I wonder how deep the troughs will be when the troughy period starts in late June?

 

[GHweatherChris]

We will be enjoying the present and not worrying about what late June may or may not bring. 

Nice day today. Even better tomorrow and Sunday and Monday!!

[Phil]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z runs are just perpetual deep troughing... I wonder how deep the troughs will be when the troughy period starts in late June?

 

Models might have overestimated the duration of WPAC influence? There’s also the jet retraction that carries the retrograde to GOA ridge/-PNA.

But the tropics still aren’t fully in support of western troughing until later on. Convection doesn’t fully re-establish in IO/EHEM for a few weeks at least.

[Jesse]

Just imagine for a moment if we were sitting at the end of a record wet spring with a week of rainy weather ahead (including a holiday!!1!) yet complaining about some ridging on the clown range of the GFS.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Just imagine for a moment if we were sitting at the end of a record wet spring with a week of rainy weather ahead (including a holiday!!1!) yet complaining about some ridging on the clown range of the GFS.

Just pointing out that the overall pattern looks to be quite troughy after a break for a few days.   Not quite the first half of June that Phil was describing.  

And you complain about everything.  Your profile pic fits perfectly.  

[Phil]

Then again, how often do ridgy PNW summers occur in the middle of multiyear -ENSO/-PDO regimes? As far as I know, there aren’t any recent examples of such, going back to at least the 1970s.

Pretty much all of the 2013-2020 period had +PMM/+PDO and an extended warm pool during the warm season. So this is the first negative phase since 2012.

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Silverton was founded in 1853. Even up here Silver Falls City had a couple hundred people in the 1880s. Some of the early pioneer orchards survive at the park though none of the original structures exist.

The great Silverton Fire of 1865 burned over a million acres along the Cascade foothills and west slopes. I imagine some of the areas that burned in the Beachie Creek and Riverside Fires probably burned then. 

Very snowy winter followed!

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Then again, how often do ridgy PNW summers occur in the middle of multiyear -ENSO/-PDO regimes?

As far as I know, there aren’t any examples of that, back to at least the 1970s.

How often do record dry springs occur!!??

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Then again, how often do ridgy PNW summers occur in the middle of multiyear -ENSO/-PDO regimes? As far as I know, there aren’t any recent examples of such, going back to at least the 1970s.

Pretty much all of the 2013-2020 period had +PMM/+PDO and an extended warm pool during the warm season. So this is the first negative phase since 2012.

Hope we can pull off a July-Sept 2012 this year.

[TT-SEA]

Along our road this evening... they were just getting their bearings and still have wobbly legs.  

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Hope we can pull off a July-Sept 2012 this year.

Aug/Sep warm risks abound, yes.

There are still ways to avoid the death ridge scenario. But seems ma’ nature always wants to go there if it’s even remotely possible, so...shruggie.

[snow_wizard]

After a -3 departure today and a good shot at a minus tomorrow it appears SEA will average below normal for the month as will many places.  That will make 3 out of the last 4 months below normal.  Right now it looks like a pretty major cool period coming up in June after the brief warm spell as well.

[Tyler Mode]

Brrrr.  Waking up to 38.6 degrees this morning.

[snow maniac]

Cold morning for all those tent campers out there this morning 37 degrees.

I won’t be surprised if I get some checking  out early.

[Farmboy]

Lots of frost here this morning. Here's to hoping we can avoid that extended period of troughing, I think we've had enough rain for awhile...

[MossMan]

39 for a low. 

[ShawniganLake]

26 minutes ago, snow maniac said:

Cold morning for all those tent campers out there this morning 37 degrees.

I won’t be surprised if I get some checking  out early.

Camping 🏕 in the cold is fine as long as it’s dry.  

[TacomaWaWx]

Low of 47 this morning...I see quite a few places dipped in the mid 30s to low 40s though. 

[TacomaWaWx]

8 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

After a -3 departure today and a good shot at a minus tomorrow it appears SEA will average below normal for the month as will many places.  That will make 3 out of the last 4 months below normal.  Right now it looks like a pretty major cool period coming up in June after the brief warm spell as well.

It’s looking like we will finish just slightly below average at this point in Tacoma. 

[Phil]

44 minutes ago, Farmboy said:

Lots of frost here this morning. Here's to hoping we can avoid that extended period of troughing, I think we've had enough rain for awhile...

No.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem is 1.0F above average on the month. Well below normal precip too. At least places with elevation were able to squeeze out more precip this month. 

[Phil]

OT, but…50.8°F and dropping at 1130AM in *late May*. Thick mist and low cloud deck licking the treetops. HEAVEN. 

Outside enjoying every second of it. How anyone could prefer death ridging to this is beyond me. There’s a reason they don’t call it “life ridging”.

[T-Town]

Beautiful morning here. 54 degrees. 

[Phil]

FWIW, interesting almost all of the top-10 record low maxes for the date are La Niña years, and none are from developing niños.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I know right?! Wanting sun and comfortable temps in the 70s? The nerve of some people!

That’s nice too. Was poking fun at Farmboy.