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May 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


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9 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I know right?! Wanting sun and comfortable temps in the 70s? The nerve of some people!

Phil likes to pretend we live in the same climate as him... and we live in constant fear of our usual 95-degree weather with dewpoints in 80s.    But our big "death" ridge this weekend results in temps in the 70s and dewpoints in the 40s.    I know that temps in the 70s usually results in everything dying.   Its tragic.  😁

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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39 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Phil likes to pretend we live in the same climate as him... and we live in constant fear of our usual 95-degree weather with dewpoints in 80s.    But our big "death" ridge this weekend results in temps in the 70s and dewpoints in the 40s.    I know that temps in the 70s usually results in everything dying.   Its tragic.  😁

Tuesday will likely hit 90 in spots.

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15 minutes ago, Phil said:

12z GFS looking more like the ECMWF now, with the slower transition to troughing.

Still way faster and more troughy than the ECMWF.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Tuesday will likely hit 90 in spots.

Some people only like it when it hurts.

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7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Tuesday will likely hit 90 in spots.

Not up here.   DC and Oregon are just foreign lands to us with very different weather. 

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Just now, Phil said:

Some people only like it when it hurts.

Yeah... our low 80s will be sooooooo painful.   We love pain.    We should base our weather preferences on the weather in other places.  That makes sense.  

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5 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Still way faster and more troughy than the ECMWF.

Hopefully it picks up on the faster progression of the ECMWF and EPS.  It was a step in the right direction though.   

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4 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Still way faster and more troughy than the ECMWF.

True. But it also cuts off a lot of energy in the NPAC (like usual) which in this case helps amplify the offshore ridge and dig the trough deeper down the West coast.

Ultimately I suspect the Euro will be closer to reality, though perhaps too flat. Just a guess, though.

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12 minutes ago, Phil said:

True. But it also cuts off a lot of energy in the NPAC (like usual) which in this case helps amplify the offshore ridge and dig the trough deeper down the West coast.

Ultimately I suspect the Euro will be closer to reality, though perhaps too flat. Just a guess, though.

Yeah we'll see. 12z Canadian is onboard for the troughier/faster solution as well.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not up here.   DC and Oregon are just foreign lands to us with very different weather. 

The vast majority of the PNW will be much warmer than your frigid rainforest microclimate. Certainly well above the 71 degree mist or whatever you believe you will see on Tuesday with our fake death ridge.

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The vast majority of the PNW will be much warmer than your frigid rainforest microclimate. Certainly well above the 71 degree mist or whatever you believe you will see on Tuesday with our fake death ridge.

So stupid.    Can't you just let people like what they like without this dripping hyperbole?    Haven't we have been having this discussion for 15+ years.   Do you see me telling people they shouldn't like rain or cold?   Like I am going to change their mind... or that their preferences have an impact on me or the actual weather.   

There are lots of people up here and in Oregon who love sunshine.  And lots of people who love rain in both places.   Who cares? 

Side note... my area will be just as warm as other places around here during this warm spell.   We have lots of nice weather here too.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So stupid.    Can't you just let people like what they like without this dripping hyperbole?    Haven't we have been having this discussion for 15+ years.   Do you see me telling people they shouldn't like rain or cold?   Like I am going to change their mind... or that their preferences have an impact on me or the actual weather.   

There are lots of people up here and in Oregon who love sunshine.  And lots of people who love rain in both places.   Who cares? 

Side note... my area will be just as warm as other places around here during this warm spell.   We have lots of nice weather here too.

Can you think of anything better to do during the summer doldrums? Traditions have purpose. :D

 

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13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

42 with heavy rain here.   Looks like it's warm and sunny all around my area though.   😎   

D**n you have me beat by 10 degrees.

Edit: This is a troll post, isn’t it? 

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

D**n you have me beat by 10 degrees.

Other than that, we have the same weather today. 🥰

Whoops... just popped up to 64 now without a cloud in the sky.    Heading for the low 70s.  😀   

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12Z ECMWF digs the back side of the trough into the PNW next weekend... but that is a fairly dry trajectory.   It's not even that cloudy next weekend on this run... partly sunny and mid 60s.   

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

63 and sunny breezy N winds whipping up white buds everywhere like it’s snowing. 

68 here with just a light breeze... feels warm.  

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Not sure why... but the GFS ensemble output is one of the most accurate for the Seattle area.     

The 12 ECMWF showed at a high of 65 at SEA today... it was 66 already at 1 p.m.    Its just so bad.    The 12Z EPS showed 67 today which is a little better.    But the GFS ensemble shows 71 which is probably within a degree or two of the actual high.   

Here is the 12Z GEFS output for Seattle over the next 2 weeks... looks almost perfect except for those mid-60s right over next weekend.    😃

gfs.png

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The EPS is demonstrably better in the LR than the GEFS pretty much everywhere. The latter seldom gets the pattern correct, so by default its thermals will be off. Not even accounting for the lower resolution and fewer number of ensemble members in the GEFS.

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

The EPS is demonstrably better in the LR than the GEFS pretty much everywhere. The latter seldom gets the pattern correct, so by default its thermals will be off. Not even accounting for the lower resolution and fewer number of ensemble members in the GEFS.

Fair enough... but the EPS is pretty nice as well.   And there is no doubt you have to add 3-4 degrees to all of these high temps due to its cool bias.

It shows 67 for a high today at SEA and its now 69 at 2 p.m.    Its going to be at least 4 or 5 degrees too cold on day 1.    It knows the exact pattern for today and is still going to be way too cold.   😃

So when you adjust for its cool bias... it basically shows the same thing as the GEFS.

 

eps.png

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3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

GFS total cloud fraction was wrong for today. Hoping the same can be said for tomorrow too.

Often both the GFS and ECMWF make even thin wispy high clouds look the same as a solid low cloud deck.    That being said... the ECMWF does show a mid level deck passing through right during the afternoon and peak heating time tomorrow.    That might make it feel pretty cloudy for 2 or 3 hours.

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16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Fair enough... but the EPS is pretty nice as well.   And there is no doubt you have to add 3-4 degrees to all of these high temps due to its cool bias.

It shows 67 for a high today at SEA and its now 69 at 2 p.m.    Its going to be at least 4 or 5 degrees too cold on day 1.    It knows the exact pattern for today and is still going to be way too cold.   😃

So when you adjust for its cool bias... it basically shows the same thing as the GEFS.

 

eps.png

We’ll find out soon enough, I guess.

Pulling for the EPS, personally :unsure:

6A8B1B56-FD01-4F14-B6BB-D9E3A8F0270F.png

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4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

So stupid.    Can't you just let people like what they like without this dripping hyperbole?    Haven't we have been having this discussion for 15+ years.   Do you see me telling people they shouldn't like rain or cold?   Like I am going to change their mind... or that their preferences have an impact on me or the actual weather.   

There are lots of people up here and in Oregon who love sunshine.  And lots of people who love rain in both places.   Who cares? 

Side note... my area will be just as warm as other places around here during this warm spell.   We have lots of nice weather here too.

You  were the one who specifically mentioned 70s for highs there. Pretty clear many places will get much warmer than that on Tuesday. Don't shift the goalposts.

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44 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

You  were the one who specifically mentioned 70s for highs there. Pretty clear many places will get much warmer than that on Tuesday. Don't shift the goalposts.

I said low 80s on Tuesday.   And whatever.   Its an endlessly stupid debate.   People like what they like.   We get plenty of beautiful weather in this area.   Enough to make us love it here.   And we still love the sunny days the most.    It's paradise here on a sunny summer day.   😎

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71 at SEA... and 73 here.    

6 degrees warmer than the ECMWF showed and 4 degrees warmer than the EPS.     Actual high may end up warmer than the 71 that the GEFS showed.  

 

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Every post I have made today has been outside on my phone during breaks in yardwork.    Get the work out of the way so we can play the rest of the weekend.

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Every post I have made today has been outside on my phone during breaks in yardwork.    Get the work out of the way so we can play the rest of the weekend.

Front hedge done here, back hedge still to go. 
 

Pro tip on hedges - don’t ever plant a hedge. 

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Had to pick up my son in Tacoma... car temp (which is really accurate) went from 75 in North Bend to 77 in Covington and Maple Valley and then back down to 73 when I got to I-5.  

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0E83EA25-3AEA-4C3B-B0C4-8A689971EDA0.jpeg.d5703b832d8adcd19a15558a8edcb1d0.jpegEF48930B-A735-48B3-BE4D-60DD40FBC2AA.thumb.jpeg.bececd92438abec18764a26a984833d0.jpeg595934EC-ED32-4D02-BA43-B368890F04EA.thumb.jpeg.786ff9ae42f0ff3be181242cdf0372b6.jpeg

Beautiful day at the Tamanawas Falls trail and through the Hood River Valley today. Extremely blue skies thanks to low RH and rural area / clean air.

Last photo is a Manzanita shrub. Looks like either greenleaf or pinemat manzanita. It grows at elevation throughout the Cascades, Sierra, and many areas in the SW US and is very drought-resistant.

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