Phil Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 Can someone put the GFS out of its misery already? Every d*mn run it spits out these phantom ULLs over the NPAC and NATL. Hr165-216 over the NW-Pacific is a special kind of stupid. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, Phil said: Can someone put the GFS out of its misery already? Every d*mn run it spits out these phantom ULLs over the NPAC and NATL. Egregious. No doubt... its been such a wet and cold spring and the GFS keeps saying it won't be that wet or cold. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 Picked up .50 here tonight with some bands of heavy rain... I believe that puts us over 4 inches in the last 11 days. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: No doubt... its been such a wet and cold spring and the GFS keeps saying it won't be that wet or cold. The Euro/EPS has been slaughtering the GFS/GEFS in terms of z500 skill scores. It’s downright embarrassing. Not sure what a wet/cold spring (or lack there-of) has to do with that fact. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 My deck just turned wet. Still 0.00” so far on the day though. 46 degrees. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, Phil said: The Euro/EPS has been slaughtering the GFS/GEFS in terms of z500 skill scores. It’s downright embarrassing. Not sure what a wet/cold spring (or lack there-of) has to do with that fact. Not much... but there have been lots of rug pulls on deep troughs and rain events. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 Just noticed the ECMWF seasonal outlook is generally warm all summer. The next wetter than normal month it shows is October. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Just noticed the ECMWF seasonal outlook is generally warm all summer. The next wetter than normal month it shows is October. Literally every EPS seasonal forecast over the last decade has depicted a western blowtorch for J/J/A. Including 2016, 2019, and 2020, which were far from torches out there (mean ridge position was not over PNW in any of those years). Not sure if it’s some kind of terrain feedback or what. But it’s usually not worth looking at. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 Also... the new ECMWF weeklies update is pretty warm from mid-May through mid-June. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Phil said: Literally every EPS seasonal forecast over the last decade has depicted a western blowtorch for J/J/A. Not sure if it’s some kind of terrain feedback or what. But it’s usually not worth looking at. Summers have been mostly cold in the west for the last decade... so that is surprising. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Summers have been mostly cold in the west for the last decade... so that is surprising. It’s been wrong for 2 consecutive years now. And 3 of the last 5 years. A broken clock is right twice a day. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 EPS weeklies. Large amount of spread this run..can barely pick out any coherent wavetrain from the mean after D20. Until the very end, that is. Which is interesting. But you’re not going to derive much if anything useful from the mean for temp anomalies w/ this. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, Phil said: It’s been wrong for 2 consecutive years now. And 3 of the last 5 years. A broken clock is right twice a day. Sounds like most of the seasonal forecasts on here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Also... the new ECMWF weeklies update is pretty warm from mid-May through mid-June. Good! Taking the first trip over to Lake Entiat in a few weeks, hoping it’s nice and toasty over there! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 Just now, MossMan said: Good! Taking the first trip over to Lake Entiat in a few weeks, hoping it’s nice and toasty over there! I think Phil is hinting at lots of cold troughing. Bring your snow shovel just in case! 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 The only consistent signal on the EPS weeklies is a GOA/Aleutian ridge. But even that is mediocre in coherency. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 Major dumpage now. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I think Phil is hinting at lots of cold troughing. Bring your snow shovel just in case! Phil needs sleep. He’ll continue this discussion sometime tomorrow. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 Buy Doge. Holy crap! Gonna be able to throw all this in my books soon!! To the moon!! And watching the endless n/s precip gradient from way out there. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 Good f*cking lord that was some of the heaviest rain/hail we’ve had here in awhile. Was too loud to sleep through. 1 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow maniac Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 Still only .16 of rainfall in 15 days, sure hope we some real rain soon 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 .80 here now since yesterday afternoon and raining hard. SEA has had nothing though in the rain shadow. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow maniac Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 My location is in a perfect spot we’re I don’t see or see very little precipitation from weather when it comes from the west, Northwest or North. The Olympics rain shadows me well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 55 minutes ago, snow maniac said: Still only .16 of rainfall in 15 days, sure hope we some real rain soon I hear the rain forest is still seeing rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: I hear the rain forest is still seeing rain. Its been very wet here recently... after a record dry March/April. So it has definitely changed. Unfortunately its not coming from large stratiform rain events that spread the wealth. Side note... its been dumping rain for the last 20 minutes and now just about up to an inch with this system so far. This afternoon could interesting as well. Maybe some thunderstorms in the c-zone. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 Looks like we just got into the rain shadow out here now and the rain has stopped... but there is lots of heavy rain north of Seattle that will be slipping south into King County later today. Randy is getting soaked right now! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 Heavy shower moving through. Up to 1.36" on the month. May is already wetter than April was. We will still likely end up below average, but at least we are not headed for a May 2018 like disaster. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 SPC has us under a Marginal chance for severe storms here this afternoon turning to heavy snow tonight. Classic Bozeman spring weather. Likely 1-1.5" of precip coming over the next 24-36 hours which is very welcome. 3 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 31 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Its been very wet here recently... after a record dry March/April. So it has definitely changed. Unfortunately its not coming from large stratiform rain events that spread the wealth. Side note... its been dumping rain for the last 20 minutes and now just about up to an inch with this system so far. This afternoon could interesting as well. Maybe some thunderstorms in the c-zone. Just another 50 inches to go before you hit your average! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Just another 50 inches to go before you hit your average! Still running wetter than normal here for the year out here... well on our way! But there have been so many nice days as well. And this coming week is starting to look really nice too. SEA is at 17.38 inches for the year compared to 17.31 inches normally... so just about perfectly normal there now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 47 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Looks like we just got into the rain shadow out here now and the rain has stopped... but there is lots of heavy rain north of Seattle that will be slipping south into King County later today. Randy is getting soaked right now! Yep! Up to .52” so far on the day, .70” for the month, 23.45” since Jan. 1. 40.8 degrees...Brrrr! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 Pretty impressive for May 7th. 2 1 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted May 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 Hillsboro up to 0.04” MTD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Hillsboro up to 0.04” MTD 1.47” here Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 Got down to 43 here this morning...0.15” since midnight and 0.46” MTD. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 Wouldn’t be surprised if the C-zone and some thunderstorms drifted into pierce county and my area today with NW flow. Some of the models picking up on that idea. Could be an interesting weather day for king and pierce county. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 Raining hard in north Everett currently. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted May 7, 2021 Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 Rain has now stopped in north Everett! Light to the west, dark to the east. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Chewbacca Defense Posted May 7, 2021 Popular Post Report Share Posted May 7, 2021 Here are a couple of pictures of the rainbow last night, credit to Randy Small photography/Whatcom County Weather FB page I am bummed I missed out on it and the sunset, got the second round of the Covid vaccine Wednesday and felt like hell yesterday. 10 1 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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