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34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF goes way south with the trough next week.   It stays dry through Tuesday... but this run actually shows more rain in OR than in WA through day 7.

Will be interesting whether the EPS follows suit. 

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1.05" of rainfall/hail yesterday afternoon/evening with the strong storms that moved through here before changing to heavy snowfall around midnight. Measured 7" this morning! Pretty incredible for May

3" of snow in 2 hours tonight and still dumping. A very good overperformer 

Clip of the storm from beginning to end.....very 😎 cool!  https://video.nest.com/clip/1fd9d2f06b77452cbc676458b5263e1e.mp4  

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5 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Will be interesting whether the EPS follows suit. 

It does follow suit... big shift south on 12Z EPS.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1468800.png

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39 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF goes way south with the trough next week.   It stays dry through Tuesday... but this run actually shows more rain in OR than in WA through day 7.

Brings plenty of rainfall to wide swaths of the West and even some in the Sierra and far north CA where wildfire risk is looking to be extremely high this summer. Would love to see this run verify.

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Here is the 12Z EPS loop for the next 10 days... really nice run.    Trough digs south and moves across the entire West and then lifts out rather quickly too.   

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1620907200-1620907200-1621771200-10.gif

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Unfortunately... the 12Z EPS is still drier than normal for Oregon.    But its definitely not totally dry and wetter than previous runs.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-qpf_anom_10day-1771200.png

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Hard not to like that euro run...more rain where it’s needed down in Oregon. We will see what it looks like in a couple days though hopefully similar to this run. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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72 here... our newly planted garden is just exploding now.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Enjoying the sun on the deck right now and I have a visitor... 

20210513_143508.jpg

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

It does follow suit... big shift south on 12Z EPS.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1468800.png

Keep that south trend going. SW US needs all the rainfall in the world. And then some.

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Have a -1.5SD cold airmass overhead here and it’s 71 degrees.

Feels like we’re approaching the point of no return. 😢 Climo changing too fast to keep up.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Have a -1.5SD cold airmass overhead here and it’s 71 degrees.

Feels like we’re approaching the point of no return. 😢 Climo changing too fast to keep up.

Cold is a thing of the past.

You basically live in Wilmington, NC now dude.

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Cold is a thing of the past.

You basically live in Wilmington, NC now dude.

F*** that. Yellowstone will save us.

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I think Washington had a great display the otehr day, this was on my way into/and at work.  I had to stop and pull over at the river.  Was only the 2nd time I've seen anything other than a standard halo/sun dogs.  No apologies about the logo haha, and Facebook really crapped on the quality too :0

186496949_245381740557361_1456354079973093526_n.jpg

185560586_245379003890968_2404825360943796683_n.jpg

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40 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Enjoying the sun on the deck right now and I have a visitor... 

20210513_143508.jpg

Had an eagle in the tree across the street yesterday. Had to bring the chihuahua in the house. You think bunnies are tough...

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2 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

I think Washington had a great display the otehr day, this was on my way into/and at work.  I had to stop and pull over at the river.  Was only the 2nd time I've seen anything other than a standard halo/sun dogs.  No apologies about the logo haha, and Facebook really crapped on the quality too :0

186496949_245381740557361_1456354079973093526_n.jpg

185560586_245379003890968_2404825360943796683_n.jpg

Amazing Tyler!

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (1)
05/14, 06/--
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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Up to 70 for the first time in 2 weeks. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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18z is like a miracle. 

 

4DDE5BD2-2B77-44B1-8A55-586D42180DBF.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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10 hours ago, AlTahoe said:

Interesting that they experienced an extreme drought the same time as the west coast. 1975-1977 was considered the all time mega drought for California. But now 2019-2021 has beaten it for a large part of California, with 2013-2015 coming in 2nd or 3rd place depending on the region of California. Is there currently a large drought in Europe? 

Actually there is. They had an historical dry spring last year and I think summer. This spring is also dry but really cold for them with daily night frost till about now. Now they are having mild storms that look to be 'stuck in a rut' pattern.  It appears the UK is in for a 2010 style BBQ washout! 

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45 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z is like a miracle. 

 

4DDE5BD2-2B77-44B1-8A55-586D42180DBF.png

Gfs and the euro are looking pretty good next week. Hopefully it’s a start to a wet pattern sticks around for awhile. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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Glancing at preliminary May weather data, temperatures are around average (+/-0.5F) in Western WA, and slightly above (+0.5 to 1.5) in Western OR. Uniform precip departure west of the cascades , with most areas running around 2/3 of normal. If this upcoming pattern depicted by the models holds, which it might not, a cooler/wetter than normal May could be in store for the lowlands (the cooler emphasized especially for Western WA given the neutral anomalies right now). Reeeeally rooting for this given the drought in place; plus we haven't had a cooler than average May since 2012(!).

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I’ll be gone much of next week, but I will be in Oklahoma where it looks very wet. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z is like a miracle. 

 

4DDE5BD2-2B77-44B1-8A55-586D42180DBF.png

Beautiful 

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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57 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Glancing at preliminary May weather data, temperatures are around average (+/-0.5F) in Western WA, and slightly above (+0.5 to 1.5) in Western OR. Uniform precip departure west of the cascades , with most areas running around 2/3 of normal. If this upcoming pattern depicted by the models holds, which it might not, a cooler/wetter than normal May could be in store for the lowlands (the cooler emphasized especially for Western WA given the neutral anomalies right now). Reeeeally rooting for this given the drought in place; plus we haven't had a cooler than average May since 2012(!).

Even getting a normal May would be a win at this point. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’ll be gone much of next week, but I will be in Oklahoma where it looks very wet. 

Aha! So that's why the pattern is breaking down! The truth comes out. 

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8 minutes ago, Link said:

Aha! So that's why the pattern is breaking down! The truth comes out. 

I love your sense of humor. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Enjoying the sun on the deck right now and I have a visitor... 

20210513_143508.jpg

Got a pretty nice close up glimpse of a bald eagle hunting today at the lake but unfortunately it was a little bit too fast for me to capture on camera. It then flew right over me and a couple of crows chased it away. Quite majestic. 

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81/36. Those north winds really made for a nice day.

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (1)
05/14, 06/--
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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Wow... 00Z GFS ups the ante.   

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-1900800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... 00Z GFS ups the ante.   

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-1900800.png

Wow... That would provide the region with just under May's entire monthly average total over the course of a week.

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... 00Z GFS ups the ante.   

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-1900800.png

Off on its own too. Not seeing the euro, gem, or ensemble support for this much rain or low development after Tuesday night. Really a wild forecast for 995 MB to get to Columbia in May.

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... 00Z GFS ups the ante.   

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-1900800.png

I’ve never seen things this dry this early in the season and not have a substantial wet period before real summer arrives.  The rain is coming. 

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For anyone interested in solar activity, it certainly looks at this point like the sun is having a bit of a hard time getting out of bed after this last minimum. Possibly another 6 months before real activity returning to the disc. Never really seen such a slow start to a maximum before...even the Oulu gamma ray monitor is showing elevated levels and at this point last cycle we were in the negative reading for that.

 

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Low of 51 this morning.

And some good news. The 06z GFS holds up the front and now gives us a much deserved bonus warm and dry day on Tuesday.

Hopefully that eventually extends through the following weekend 😁

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26 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Low of 51 this morning.

And some good news. The 06z GFS holds up the front and now gives us a much deserved bonus warm and dry day on Tuesday.

Hopefully that eventually extends through the following weekend 😁

Definitely weakened the late week storm.

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