TigerWoodsLibido Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 We have gotta be enduring our driest 2-year stretch down this way. This is unbelievable for someone that remembers cooler and sometimes some wetter weather than this disaster. -32" for the last 2 years combined...fuckk!!!! 1 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 1 minute ago, BLI snowman said: Feels a bit like June-July 2015 did after the dry pattern started taking hold. Extremely low soil moisture content relative to average likely exacerbated the surface heating with some of those patterns, as it seems to be doing now. Summer 2015 was a little toasty but I liked how frequently we kept getting t'storms that year. One smoky evening would almost instantly vanish within a day or so. It wasn't nearly half as smoky as 2018. Southern Oregon (in spots) had 200-250% normal precipitation in July/Aug that summer. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Jesse said: So we've gone from cool summer talk to merely "preventing a blowtorch" It could still be a cool summer, but probably confined to the west side. The way it would come about is through low level marine influence, thanks to a healthy GOA ridge. But deep troughs and cold upper level air masses seem less likely. But east of the cascades, and across the intermountain west, it looks like a warm summer to me. Large 4CH and a large offshore/GOA ridge will probably battle for control in coastal PNW. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 12z GFS shows much of Eastern Oregon getting more rain than we have seen in the last two months, by next weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: Well, thankfully we’re not heading into a super niño like 2015. So I doubt the J/J/A pattern will look anything like that year. At this point rain and avoiding a costly fire season are the main concerns, even if that means temps staying warm which feels like a given. Fire fuel is a couple months ahead of schedule right now and a dry summer would probably mean doubling our normal amount of fuel. We'd effectively be talking about two summers in one if June/July/August all avoid significant rain. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Phil said: It could still be a cool summer, but probably confined to the west side. The way it would come about is through low level marine influence, thanks to a healthy GOA ridge. But deep troughs and cold upper level air masses seem less likely. But east of the cascades, and across the intermountain west, it looks like a warm summer to me. Large 4CH and a large offshore/GOA ridge will probably battle for control in coastal PNW. A warm summer for the west. Nice change of pace! Does ENSO state even matter anymore? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted May 16, 2021 Author Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 TWC Hillsboro forecast has removed its last rain icon. The beat goes on. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 10 minutes ago, Jesse said: A warm summer for the west. Nice change of pace! Does ENSO state even matter anymore? If by ENSO you mean the stripe of SSTs in the niño 3.4 region, then yeah that’s overrated by itself. What really drives your summers is the state of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool, which often correlates to ENSO, but nonlinearly. Hot, ridgy summers usually occur with an extended warm pool/more WPAC influence relative to IO. Cooler, troughier summers tend to occur with a retracted warm pool/more IO influence relative to WPAC. This year looks kind of in-between on that front. There’s lots of +SSTAs in the IO, probably more so than the WPAC, and that will likely keep the insane heat at bay. But the WPAC is warm too. And there’s a pool of OHC there. But it’s probably far enough west to avoid a 2014/15/17/18 outcome. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 12z GFS took away our cool down. Lovely. 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 Just now, Phil said: 12z GFS took away our cool down. Lovely. Good. It’s a better run for us. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 TWC is saying Cicadas have a delayed arrival. Who to believe, them or Phil? 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Already well into the 60s here and sunny. Getting the boat ready and loaded up and tube blown up for a fun and warm afternoon on the lake. Should be around 80. Enjoy! I’m heading to the lake today as well! Just to mow though. One of these days I will get the boat ready for spring. 2 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, Jesse said: Good. It’s a better run for us. Bruh.. 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: TWC is saying Cicadas have a delayed arrival. Who to believe, them or Phil? Those are some stoopid articles. Basically the media caught onto a few early emergences in urban areas and claimed they were “ahead of schedule”. But these periodical cicadas have rigid internal clocks..they almost always emerge in mid-May. Which they are now doing, en masse. Which is “delayed” based on the faulty timeline from TWC et al. But biologically this is right on time. In 2004 they started emerging here on the 14th. This year, they started emerging on the 15th. DELAYED! 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 We should start a cicada thread. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Jesse said: We should start a cicada thread. My bad lol. I figured you would find them fascinating, tbh. The inner workings of these periodical broods flummox scientists to this day. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted May 16, 2021 Author Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 PDX has received 2.98” of rainfall in the last 3 months. Drought monitor has updated the Willamette Valley to D2, with D3 going up to Tiger’s house: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, Phil said: Those are some stoopid articles. Basically the media caught onto a few early emergences in urban areas and claimed they were “ahead of schedule”. But these periodical cicadas have rigid internal clocks..they almost always emerge in mid-May. Which they are now doing, en masse. Which is “delayed” based on the faulty timeline from TWC et al. But biologically this is right on time. In 2004 they started emerging here on the 14th. This year, they started emerging on the 15th. DELAYED! I start getting a few around the end of May or first few days of June. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said: I start getting a few around the end of May or first few days of June. Interesting! What species do you typically see out there? I know there are a ton of western cicada species (I think there are over 80 different species in CA alone). The annual cicadas here don’t start singing until late in June. Much later than the periodical ones. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 13 minutes ago, Phil said: My bad lol. I figured you would find them fascinating, tbh. The inner workings of these periodical broods flummox scientists to this day. Do what you want. It really gets easier and easier to stay away from this place. Not a lot of great discussion to be had these days. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Phil said: Interesting! What species do you typically see out there? I know there are a ton of western cicada species (I think there are over 80 different species in CA alone). The annual cicadas here don’t start singing until late in June. Much later than the periodical ones. I hardly know anything about them, but we get ones that don't swarm obviously. Typically just a couple of them buzzing at once and they're not loud at all. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 14 minutes ago, Jesse said: We should start a cicada thread. And a death battle thread. Bathroom Centipede versus snack cabinet Wolf Spider! 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, Jesse said: Do what you want. It really gets easier and easier to stay away from this place. Sorry you’re feeling down, man. Weather is a brutal hobby. Fleeting blips of enjoyment in a sea of heartache. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 Freeway medians are as brown as mid July right now. Ironically, this should keep them from burning as vigorously in late summer thanks to the stunted growth. No masks or snow piles here at Costco this morning. Wall to wall sunshine coming up on this sunny Sunday with temps into the low 80’s. Now here’s Led Zepplin with The Rain Song here on KDRT, your cicada station... 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 16 minutes ago, Jesse said: Do what you want. It really gets easier and easier to stay away from this place. Not a lot of great discussion to be had these days. It’s been about as boring and dry as possible for this time of year. Not much to talk about. Really hoping for something interesting in terms of weather soon...and not extreme heat. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 Incidentally, our last significant precipitation here (1/2"+) was February 12. Snow day. Gotta go back another 10 days to find something in liquid form. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: It’s been about as boring and dry as possible for this time of year. Not much to talk about. Really hoping for something interesting in terms of weather soon...and not extreme heat. Been kind of a goldilocks month after the warm April. Just persistently mild so far with little variation. Actually looks like PDX's 82 might hold as their high for the month, which would be the lowest May max there since 2011. Although I probably just jinxed it. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 22 minutes ago, Jesse said: Do what you want. It really gets easier and easier to stay away from this place. Not a lot of great discussion to be had these days. I think you just grew out of the typical springs of old where it was you and Tim going back and forth about six of one/half dozen of another. Phil has picked up that torch. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 This will cheer you up Jesse! Wall to wall sun! (Sorry you are socked in Chris) Phil!! I watered my moss this morning. 1 2 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 Looks like at least half an inch or more out here through Tuesday evening... and more to the north. Sprinklers can be turned off Randy! 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Looks like at least half an inch or more out here through Tuesday evening... and more to the north. Sprinklers can be turned off Randy! When does the rain begin? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 1 minute ago, MossMan said: When does the rain begin? Up there... its already raining by tomorrow morning. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 I went to Sumner and Bonney Lake yesterday. Nice area. 5 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I went to Sumner and Bonney Lake yesterday. Nice area. Lake Tapps is gorgeous. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 10 minutes ago, MossMan said: When does the rain begin? Good news with the faster timing is that Wednesday looks pretty much dry now and fairly sunny. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Up there... its already raining by tomorrow morning. Darn! Was hoping to take a half day off and work on the boat. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: We have gotta be enduring our driest 2-year stretch down this way. This is unbelievable for someone that remembers cooler and sometimes some wetter weather than this disaster. -32" for the last 2 years combined...fuckk!!!! Somebody on another forum south of you (near southern Oregon border) is -51" of precip this season and down 80" from normal the last 2 years combined! Historical for sure. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Lake Tapps is gorgeous. Went through Eatonville, do they get a decent amount of snow being around 800’? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 Mid-week was going to be my next snow (possibly measurable) and t'storms late week. NWS still wants to mention all that but who knows what it will do now. 2 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 16, 2021 Report Share Posted May 16, 2021 14 minutes ago, MossMan said: Darn! Was hoping to take a half day off and work on the boat. You still can. The whole point of a boat is to spend time on the water, and you’re avoiding it because of…water? 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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