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May 2021 Pacific Northwest Weather Obs


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We have gotta be enduring our driest 2-year stretch down this way. This is unbelievable for someone that remembers cooler and sometimes some wetter weather than this disaster. -32" for the last 2 years combined...fuckk!!!!

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Feels a bit like June-July 2015 did after the dry pattern started taking hold. Extremely low soil moisture content relative to average likely exacerbated the surface heating with some of those patterns, as it seems to be doing now.

Summer 2015 was a little toasty but I liked how frequently we kept getting t'storms that year. One smoky evening would almost instantly vanish within a day or so. It wasn't nearly half as smoky as 2018.

Southern Oregon (in spots) had 200-250% normal precipitation in July/Aug that summer.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

So we've gone from cool summer talk to merely  "preventing a blowtorch" 😂

It could still be a cool summer, but probably confined to the west side. The way it would come about is through low level marine influence, thanks to a healthy GOA ridge. But deep troughs and cold upper level air masses seem less likely.

But east of the cascades, and across the intermountain west, it looks like a warm summer to me. Large 4CH and a large offshore/GOA ridge will probably battle for control in coastal PNW.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Well, thankfully we’re not heading into a super niño like 2015.

So I doubt the J/J/A pattern will look anything like that year.

At this point rain and avoiding a costly fire season are the main concerns, even if that means temps staying warm which feels like a given. Fire fuel is a couple months ahead of schedule right now and a dry summer would probably mean doubling our normal amount of fuel. We'd effectively be talking about two summers in one if June/July/August all avoid significant rain.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

It could still be a cool summer, but probably confined to the west side. The way it would come about is through low level marine influence, thanks to a healthy GOA ridge. But deep troughs and cold upper level air masses seem less likely.

But east of the cascades, and across the intermountain west, it looks like a warm summer to me. Large 4CH and a large offshore/GOA ridge will probably battle for control in coastal PNW.

A warm summer for the west. Nice change of pace!

Does ENSO state even matter anymore?

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10 minutes ago, Jesse said:

A warm summer for the west. Nice change of pace!

Does ENSO state even matter anymore?

If by ENSO you mean the stripe of SSTs in the niño 3.4 region, then yeah that’s overrated by itself.

What really drives your summers is the state of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool, which often correlates to ENSO, but nonlinearly.

Hot, ridgy summers usually occur with an extended warm pool/more WPAC influence relative to IO. Cooler, troughier summers tend to occur with a retracted warm pool/more IO influence relative to WPAC.

This year looks kind of in-between on that front. There’s lots of +SSTAs in the IO, probably more so than the WPAC, and that will likely keep the insane heat at bay. But the WPAC is warm too. And there’s a pool of OHC there. But it’s probably far enough west to avoid a 2014/15/17/18 outcome.

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TWC is saying Cicadas have a delayed arrival. Who to believe, them or Phil? ;)

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Already well into the 60s here and sunny.   Getting the boat ready and loaded up and tube blown up for a fun and warm afternoon on the lake.  Should be around 80.

Enjoy! I’m heading to the lake today as well! Just to mow though. ☹️ One of these days I will get the boat ready for spring. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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9 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

TWC is saying Cicadas have a delayed arrival. Who to believe, them or Phil? ;)

Those are some stoopid articles. Basically the media caught onto a few early emergences in urban areas and claimed they were “ahead of schedule”.

But these periodical cicadas have rigid internal clocks..they almost always emerge in mid-May. Which they are now doing, en masse. Which is “delayed” based on the faulty timeline from TWC et al.

But biologically this is right on time. In 2004 they started emerging here on the 14th. This year, they started emerging on the 15th. DELAYED!

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

We should start a cicada thread.

My bad lol. I figured you would find them fascinating, tbh. The inner workings of these periodical broods flummox scientists to this day.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Those are some stoopid articles. Basically the media caught onto a few early emergences in urban areas and claimed they were “ahead of schedule”.

But these periodical cicadas have rigid internal clocks..they almost always emerge in mid-May. Which they are now doing, en masse. Which is “delayed” based on the faulty timeline from TWC et al.

But biologically this is right on time. In 2004 they started emerging here on the 14th. This year, they started emerging on the 15th. DELAYED!

I start getting a few around the end of May or first few days of June. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I start getting a few around the end of May or first few days of June. 

Interesting! What species do you typically see out there? I know there are a ton of western cicada species (I think there are over 80 different species in CA alone).

The annual cicadas here don’t start singing until late in June. Much later than the periodical ones.

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

My bad lol. I figured you would find them fascinating, tbh. The inner workings of these periodical broods flummox scientists to this day.

Do what you want. It really gets easier and easier to stay away from this place. Not a lot of great discussion to be had these days.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Interesting! What species do you typically see out there? I know there are a ton of western cicada species (I think there are over 80 different species in CA alone).

The annual cicadas here don’t start singing until late in June. Much later than the periodical ones.

I hardly know anything about them, but we get ones that don't swarm obviously. Typically just a couple of them buzzing at once and they're not loud at all. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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14 minutes ago, Jesse said:

We should start a cicada thread.

And a death battle thread.

Bathroom Centipede versus snack cabinet Wolf Spider!

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Do what you want. It really gets easier and easier to stay away from this place.

Sorry you’re feeling down, man. Weather is a brutal hobby. Fleeting blips of enjoyment in a sea of heartache.

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Freeway medians are as brown as mid July right now. Ironically, this should keep them from burning as vigorously in late summer thanks to the stunted growth.

No masks or snow piles here at Costco this morning.

Wall to wall sunshine coming up on this sunny Sunday with temps into the low 80’s. Now here’s Led Zepplin with The Rain Song here on KDRT, your cicada station...

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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16 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Do what you want. It really gets easier and easier to stay away from this place. Not a lot of great discussion to be had these days.

It’s been about as boring and dry as possible for this time of year. Not much to talk about. Really hoping for something interesting in terms of weather soon...and not extreme heat.

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

It’s been about as boring and dry as possible for this time of year. Not much to talk about. Really hoping for something interesting in terms of weather soon...and not extreme heat.

Been kind of a goldilocks month after the warm April. Just persistently mild so far with little variation.

Actually looks like PDX's 82 might hold as their high for the month, which would be the lowest May max there since 2011. Although I probably just jinxed it.

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22 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Do what you want. It really gets easier and easier to stay away from this place. Not a lot of great discussion to be had these days.

I think you just grew out of the typical springs of old where it was you and Tim going back and forth about six of one/half dozen of another.  Phil has picked up that torch.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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This will cheer you up Jesse! Wall to wall sun! (Sorry you are socked in Chris) 

Phil!! I watered my moss this morning. 

557EBD4D-D084-420C-9500-A51BC274F58B.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Looks like at least half an inch or more out here through Tuesday evening... and more to the north.   Sprinklers can be turned off Randy!

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_24hr_inch-1382400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like at least half an inch or more out here through Tuesday evening... and more to the north.   Sprinklers can be turned off Randy!

When does the rain begin? 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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I went to Sumner and Bonney Lake yesterday. Nice area. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I went to Sumner and Bonney Lake yesterday. Nice area. 

Lake Tapps is gorgeous.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, MossMan said:

When does the rain begin? 

Good news with the faster timing is that Wednesday looks pretty much dry now and fairly sunny.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_1hr_inch-1468800 (1).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Up there... its already raining by tomorrow morning.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_3hr_inch-1270800.png

Darn! Was hoping to take a half day off and work on the boat. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We have gotta be enduring our driest 2-year stretch down this way. This is unbelievable for someone that remembers cooler and sometimes some wetter weather than this disaster. -32" for the last 2 years combined...fuckk!!!!

Somebody on another forum south of you (near southern Oregon border) is -51" of precip this season and down 80" from normal the last 2 years combined! Historical for sure. 

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Lake Tapps is gorgeous.

Went through Eatonville, do they get a decent amount of snow being around 800’?

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Mid-week was going to be my next snow (possibly measurable) and t'storms late week.

NWS still wants to mention all that but who knows what it will do now.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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14 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Darn! Was hoping to take a half day off and work on the boat. 

You still can. The whole point of a boat is to spend time on the water, and you’re avoiding it because of…water? 🤔

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