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Euro continues to be wetter over the final 1/3 of the month compared to the gfs. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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1.05" of rainfall/hail yesterday afternoon/evening with the strong storms that moved through here before changing to heavy snowfall around midnight. Measured 7" this morning! Pretty incredible for May

3" of snow in 2 hours tonight and still dumping. A very good overperformer 

Clip of the storm from beginning to end.....very 😎 cool!  https://video.nest.com/clip/1fd9d2f06b77452cbc676458b5263e1e.mp4  

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Euro continues to be wetter over the final 1/3 of the month compared to the gfs. 

Inevitable flip to warmer/drier should happen in one of the next few runs.

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7 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Inevitable flip to warmer/drier should happen in one of the next few runs.

Or maybe we will finally get some decent rain...eventually one of these set ups has gotta go our way. Has been going the other way for awhile now maybe our luck will change. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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40 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

0.79” here so far this month...better than up that way but not by much. 4.63” since March 1st. 

4.12” here during that period

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20 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Or maybe we will finally get some decent rain...eventually one of these set ups has gotta go our way. Has been going the other way for awhile now maybe our luck will change. 

The Euro/EPS have been scoring higher than the GFS/GEFS w/ this pattern so far. Better odds than the alternative, I guess?

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48 minutes ago, Phil said:

The Euro/EPS have been scoring higher than the GFS/GEFS w/ this pattern so far. Better odds than the alternative, I guess?

I think it’s more likely than not we score atleast a decently wet pattern for a few days before summer really starts gearing up. No science behind the guess just a guess. Models look encouraging currently for that to happen before the end of the month. Wouldn’t be surprised if we had another wet pattern set up next month too. Gfs was a step in the right direction this morning last 3 runs have trended wetter for western OR and WA and the latest euro run was also an improvement. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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29 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I think it’s more likely than not we score atleast a decently wet pattern for a few days before summer really starts gearing up. No science behind the guess just a guess. Models look encouraging currently for that to happen before the end of the month. Wouldn’t be surprised if we had another wet pattern set up next month too. Gfs was a step in the right direction this morning last 3 runs have trended wetter for western OR and WA and the latest euro run was also an improvement. 

I’m growing into believing pattern recognition and intuition is an important element in long range forecasting. So don’t sell yourself short.

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5 minutes ago, ttt said:

This is a terhttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

 

 

This is a terrific forecast for the warm weather fans! 

 


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

I’ll believe the wetter than average here when I see it.

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26 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m growing into believing pattern recognition and intuition is an important element in long range forecasting. So don’t sell yourself short.

You never really know how things are gonna wind up here. Spring/summer 2019 was a great example. Spring was super dry and seemed like we were destined for another warm dry summer IMO but we ended up being decently wet throughout the summer. 
 In other good news though...Looks like this might be the first May since 2013 without any +80 high temps. Still a decent amount of uncertainty on where this month will end up in terms of average temps but a good shot at it being the coolest may since 2012. Not too hard to pull off considering how torchy the month has been recently but even a +1.0 May would be the coldest since 2012. Good shot we end up average or +1.0. Maybe we will get to average or above average rainfall too! Still lots of time for things to change though. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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12Z ECMWF is warm and pretty wet into the holiday weekend... that would be a new combination that we have not seen much this year. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I can't remember the last time we saw a broad area of warmer than normal 850mb temps with widespread rain.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-2462400.png

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-precip_6hr_inch-2462400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Sun is partially out here... and it's garbage day.

20210521_122426.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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59F and mostly cloudy. Pls rain.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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We are doing the final vaccine clinic here in town today at the Heavenly parking lot. We have been under an incredible lake effect snow band for 4 hours now and it is still a total whiteout. Temp is 32F with about 6" so far. 

SmartSelect_20210521-093400_MyRadar.jpg

SmartSelect_20210521-111236_MyRadar.jpg

20210521_121412.jpg

20210521_104817.jpg

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40 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is warm and pretty wet into the holiday weekend... that would be a new combination that we have not seen much this year. 

Would be a blessing.

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5 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

We are doing the final vaccine clinic here in town today at the Heavenly parking lot. We have been under an incredible lake effect snow band for 4 hours now and it is still a total whiteout. Temp is 32F with about 6" so far. 

SmartSelect_20210521-093400_MyRadar.jpg

SmartSelect_20210521-111236_MyRadar.jpg

20210521_121412.jpg

20210521_104817.jpg

Looks like heaven. I remember that stuff from Feb 2019.

Approaching the longest amount of time I've ever gone without experiencing snow in some way. I've never gone 3 straight winters without at least seeing snow falling somewhere.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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44 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like heaven. I remember that stuff from Feb 2019.

Approaching the longest amount of time I've ever gone without experiencing snow in some way. I've never gone 3 straight winters without at least seeing snow falling somewhere.

Up to like 8" now and a total whiteout still. 

20210521_131844.jpg

20210521_131349.jpg

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It would be nice to have a double Juneuary as January is always as warm as June anymore down this way. Then again, this past Feb was also above normal here too so really the entire winter was devoid of anything notable. Easily the worst one since...last winter.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I can't remember the last time we saw a broad area of warmer than normal 850mb temps with widespread rain.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-2462400.png

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-precip_6hr_inch-2462400.png

Gonna feel tropical and moonsoony 

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FWIW... the 12Z EPS is wall to wall warmth for the 8-15 day period.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_7day-2894400.png

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2 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like heaven. I remember that stuff from Feb 2019.

Approaching the longest amount of time I've ever gone without experiencing snow in some way. I've never gone 3 straight winters without at least seeing snow falling somewhere.

But global warming is a right wing conspiracy theory and we are heading into an ice age! 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤮🔫  You must retract your statement or be censored by Lord Breitbart!

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27 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Nice day. 

Beautiful... it was sunny here for probably 75% of the day.

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Beautiful... it was sunny here for probably 75% of the day.

We just had dinner outside and it was a tad chilly but otherwise lovely. 

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4 hours ago, Kayla said:

Still snowing here and 29 degrees as we approach 3pm...on May 21st.

Just starting to realize the historical nature of this airmass. Latest high at or below freezing was set on May 1st 1954 at BZN and May 12th 1953 at Bozeman MSU.

Airport is currently sitting right at 32F as is MSU. Would be really incredible to break that record by three weeks! 

Analog(s)?!?

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21 minutes ago, Phil said:

Analog(s)?!?

Really ugly (dry) years for here so I hope not!

Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 140.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 20.0"

Coldest high: -7.0º

Coldest low: -21º

Number of subzero days: 12

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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The 32 degree high did indeed hold up at BZN. Breaks today's record low high by a whopping 13 degrees and will now go into the books as the latest freezing high on record (records go back to 1935).

@BLI snowman Mark another historically cold airmass up! ;)

701564375_ScreenShot2021-05-21at8_36_44PM.thumb.png.1f9f66d6581a9b132fd9c926c82b7839.png

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Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 140.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 20.0"

Coldest high: -7.0º

Coldest low: -21º

Number of subzero days: 12

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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15 minutes ago, Kayla said:

The 32 degree did indeed hold up at BZN. Breaks today's record low high by a whopping 13 degrees and will now go into the books as the latest freezing high on record (records go back to 1935).

@BLI snowman Mark another historically cold airmass up! ;)

701564375_ScreenShot2021-05-21at8_36_44PM.thumb.png.1f9f66d6581a9b132fd9c926c82b7839.png

So refreshing to see some kind of impressive cold record again, in May no less.

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Massive emergence tonight. Easily a full order of magnitude higher than previous nights.

Went inside and realized there were two nymphs and one mature cicada riding me. 

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14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Massive emergence tonight. Easily a full order of magnitude higher than previous nights.

Went inside and realized there were two nymphs and one mature cicada riding me. 

You really should only be riding mature nymphs.

image.jpeg.0c86c6d45380983c198e622e0b9ee1a4.jpeg

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 hour ago, Kayla said:

The 32 degree high did indeed hold up at BZN. Breaks today's record low high by a whopping 13 degrees and will now go into the books as the latest freezing high on record (records go back to 1935).

@BLI snowman Mark another historically cold airmass up! ;)

701564375_ScreenShot2021-05-21at8_36_44PM.thumb.png.1f9f66d6581a9b132fd9c926c82b7839.png

I wonder if we can go a decade without a sub-freezing high here? I don't think that feat has happened since the Medieval Warm Period.

Now at like almost 1600 days since our last one. By far the longest stretch on record...fuckking depressing and I want to move my family so bad. 😞

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

So refreshing to see some kind of impressive cold record again, in May no less.

There have been numerous record cold air masses in North America throughout the last decade.   They have never gone away.   But the climate is still warming.   Both can exist.

In fact... one such record cold air mass last September kicked off the firestorm in Oregon.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

So refreshing to see some kind of impressive cold record again, in May no less.

One day I will experience a temp below 12F in my life.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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3 hours ago, Phil said:

Hints of a jet on the EPS. Need to extend it further, though. 

4B0386FE-C853-4EAF-B508-0A620850FA79.png

Which ensemble member is the driest out of the 50?

That one should stand the best chance at verifying.

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2 hours ago, Phil said:

Massive emergence tonight. Easily a full order of magnitude higher than previous nights.

Went inside and realized there were two nymphs and one mature cicada riding me. 

That is just insane! YUK!

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3 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I wonder if we can go a decade without a sub-freezing high here? I don't think that feat has happened since the Medieval Warm Period.

Now at like almost 1600 days since our last one. By far the longest stretch on record...fuckking depressing and I want to move my family so bad. 😞

Welcome to the club! I'm with ya.  I think we are in another Medieval Warm Period in the making. Of course we will still have some 'cooler' periods but more warm with these cooler periods being our old 'average'.

We need to get used to this and prepare accordingly or water wars will be our future though WA will somehow be spared until we all move up there and bring our drought with us.

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13 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Got down to 46 here this morning. 

Low of 46 here as well. 48 currently with a thicc marine layer. 

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