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5 hours ago, Deweydog said:

My conditions have been different and I hate you for that.

Goes way beyond that. But nice framing. That’ll be $40,000.

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1.05" of rainfall/hail yesterday afternoon/evening with the strong storms that moved through here before changing to heavy snowfall around midnight. Measured 7" this morning! Pretty incredible for May

Here are a couple of pictures of the rainbow last night, credit to Randy Small photography/Whatcom County Weather FB page   I am bummed I missed out on it and the sunset, got the second roun

Watched the whole show!  ☀️🐶 ! 69/41 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Precip departures clearly reveal the effects of the expanding Pacific Hadley Cell on the SW US.

39189DF9-F49A-4DEE-BD6D-9F6C37FFB546.png

Yeah... it also shows the clear effect that has had on western WA where its completely the opposite of the rest of the West Coast and has become even wetter.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Thank you!

Not surprising, but still startling to see PDX now bottoms out for their average high on Christmas and starts to bounce three days later.

The implosion of December here is something to behold. Once upon a time it was one of our snowiest months..now it is surpassed by March in that regard. And by a decent margin.

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Precip departures clearly reveal the effects of the expanding Pacific Hadley Cell on the SW US.

39189DF9-F49A-4DEE-BD6D-9F6C37FFB546.png

I know there’s a danger of playing into someone’s hands here, but that is a ridiculous difference over about 400 miles.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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These new 30 year climate normals seem to indicate that the global climate may indeed be warming. Someone should probably look into this.

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... it also shows the clear effect that has had on western WA where its completely the opposite of the rest of the West Coast and has become even wetter.

Only in the winter though. The entire west coast has trended drier during the summer. Worst case scenario.

Opposite here..winter has trended slightly drier, but summer has become much wetter. Huge increase in June/July precip by almost 15%. Considering it’s a running 30yr mean.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

The implosion of December here is something to behold. Once upon a time it was one of our snowiest months..now it is surpassed by March in that regard. And by a decent margin.

For us it’s just another creep toward a seasonal undulation which coincides almost entirely with inversion-based anomalies. Paints a pretty clear picture about mid and upper level advection prowess.  

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Only in the winter though. The entire west coast has trended drier during the summer. Worst case scenario.

Opposite here..winter has trended slightly drier, but summer has become much wetter. Huge increase in June/July precip by almost 15%.

Yeah, that map only tells part of the story since it doesn’t show the seasonal distribution of precip. My guess is the increases up north are mostly in the November-March period, simply because the mean cold season jet position is farther north.

 

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Only in the winter though. The entire west coast has trended drier during the summer. Worst case scenario.

Opposite here..winter has trended slightly drier, but summer has become much wetter. Huge increase in June/July precip by almost 15%. Considering it’s a running 30yr mean.

True... the increase has been mostly during the rainy season.    But summer has only been slightly drier than average up here in JJA over the last decade.    I did the calculation for SEA and it was just a little drier than normal in total for all the summer months combined since 2010 and there was numerous wetter than normal months in there.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Yeah, that map only tells part of the story since it doesn’t show the seasonal distribution of precip. My guess is the increases up north are mostly in the November-March period, simply because the mean cold season jet position is farther north.

Precisely this.

May - August is an ugly picture. Too graphic to post.

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

True... the increase has been mostly during the rainy season.    But summer has only been slightly drier than average up here in JJA over the last decade.    I did the calculation for SEA and it was just a little drier than normal in total for all the summer months combined since 2010 and there many wetter than normal months in there.

NOAA did that calculation as well. 😉

It’s available in the link posted on prev page. Annual summer precip is down by a whopping 30% in some areas over the last 15 years, and down by up to 15-20% in some areas for the 30yr running mean.

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What is amazing is that we are almost half way through 2021... and so far we have survived the mini ice age that was predicted to start around 2017 or 2018 and last through the first part of the 2020s.   Whew!  

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

What is amazing is that we are almost half way through 2021... and so far we have survived the mini ice age that was predicted to start around 2017 or 2018 and last through the first part of the 2020s.   Whew!  

Nice deflection.

And inaccurate, fwiw.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Precisely this.

May - August is an ugly picture. Too graphic to post.

Good news is we should be turning the corner any....year.....wait for it....just a few more years....ok maybe more like a decade....a few decades?....80 years +\- 1,000 years?....now ;)

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

NOAA did that calculation as well. 😉

It’s available in the link posted on prev page. Annual summer precip is down by a whopping 30% in some areas over the last 15 years, and down by up to 15-20% in some areas for the 30yr running mean.

Average rainfall at SEA for JJA went from 3.15 inches to 3.02 inches.

And ironically... August is actually wetter with the new averages by .09

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

They started emerging in the DC heat island last night. But so far it’s confined to the warmest locations only.

Not nearly as much UHI here so we probably won’t see them until next week. But we’re also surrounded by old woods and protected land, so when they do emerge it’ll be in much larger numbers than downtown DC. In 2004 it was full on bonkers.

I had no idea these critters emerged from the ground like that!!! Glad you posted the video.  It’s been many many years since I first heard the orchestra of cicadas at Canyon Lake just out of San Antonio.  Could not believe the noise they make. Made me really appreciate the PNW quiet nights.  Fascinating stuff 

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26 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

For us it’s just another creep toward a seasonal undulation which coincides almost entirely with inversion-based anomalies. Paints a pretty clear picture about mid and upper level advection prowess.  

The increased frequency in February events doesn't really jive with that, though. 

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18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Average rainfall at SEA for JJA went from 3.15 inches to 3.02 inches.

And ironically... August is actually wetter with the new averages by .09

SEA doesn’t speak for the rest of the region on this one. 

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The summer average at SEA is now indeed warmer... by an average of 1.267 degrees for JJA. 

June  +1.1

July +1.4

August +1.3

Its going to be much harder for SEA to run above normal now because that is about the margin of UHI that Jared always talks about.  

For example... last June was +0.9 and the same June this year would be -0.2

I thought they were already taking into account the 1991-2020 averages this year... but maybe not yet.  

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, James Jones said:

Pretty weird that 84/60 is now normal for late July and early August at PDX. 

Should be a lot easier to rack up cold anomalies though!!!!!

One would imagine...

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20 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

I had no idea these critters emerged from the ground like that!!! Glad you posted the video.  It’s been many many years since I first heard the orchestra of cicadas at Canyon Lake just out of San Antonio.  Could not believe the noise they make. Made me really appreciate the PNW quiet nights.  Fascinating stuff 

Even the annual cicadas are loud af. But these periodal broods are just next level.

This was taken a few miles from here in 2004. I remember it was borderline disorienting.

 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Even the annual cicadas are loud af. But these periodal broods are just next level.

This was taken a few miles from here in 2004. I remember it was borderline disorienting.

 

Yeah... that would suck and be pretty surreal to have that much background noise.

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Precip departures clearly reveal the effects of the expanding Pacific Hadley Cell on the SW US.

39189DF9-F49A-4DEE-BD6D-9F6C37FFB546.png

Persistently wet to the north and east of Seattle!!!

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Benjamin Franklin documented this Brood X emergence in May of 1715 and 1732... but they did not have a name for it back then.   And they did not figure out the recurring 17-year cycle until the 1749 and 1766 events.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

The increased frequency in February events doesn't really jive with that, though. 

Does look like February held serve for the most part, which is a win.  The airport crosses the 50 degree average max threshold only a day earlier. Doesn’t do much to change the mid winter dynamic, however. Moderately strong mid/upper level advection events just don’t carry the same weight in February.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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12 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Persistently wet to the north and east of Seattle!!!

That map has nothing to do with persistence. Just raw annual precip amounts and the positive or negative shift in decadal averages.

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43 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The summer average at SEA is now indeed warmer... by an average of 1.267 degrees for JJA. 

June  +1.1

July +1.4

August +1.3

Its going to be much harder for SEA to run above normal now because that is about the margin of UHI that Jared always talks about.  

For example... last June was +0.9 and the same June this year would be -0.2

I thought they were already taking into account the 1991-2020 averages this year... but maybe not yet.  

 

I don’t think it happens until this summer at some point?

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Up to .50 on the day now... heavy drizzle continuing and quite foggy too.     Its a night made for frogs out there.

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

The 00Z Euro just made me cry.

We are so fuckked down here.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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9 hours ago, Jginmartini said:

No noisy critters emerging from the ground either like back on the East coast 😱

 

 

Looks like a typical West Juneau day!

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.90 here since yesterday afternoon... and still heavy drizzle this morning.  

This little system turned out to be very wet here.  

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Only .28 at SEA... but that is 15% of the normal rainfall for the month.    Not bad for a system that I doubted would even make it inland.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Mostly clear and 51 this morning.

Models have really started to back off from digging the late week trough and now have it scooting through quickly as an open wave. That is cutting precip way back for southern areas. Pretty tough trend to watch.

There have probably been more rain rug pulls in the mid range this spring than snow rug pulls in a typical winter.

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I am openly advocating TIm be banned until we have an above average water year. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I am openly advocating TIm be banned until we have an above average water year. 

😃

I would pay money for Oregon to have a wetter than normal year.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 hours ago, Phil said:

Even the annual cicadas are loud af. But these periodal broods are just next level.

This was taken a few miles from here in 2004. I remember it was borderline disorienting.

 

Tinnitus would not be and issue in that environment...lol.  OUCH !

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12 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

.35 storm total so far with heavy drizzle falling 

49* 

Sun is coming out already in Seattle after a wet night...

 

sea 5-4.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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