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Presidents Day - Fat Tuesday Potential Significant Winter Storm


Tom

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ARCTIC AIR......on the way. BRRRRRRRR!!!!!! My highs on Sunday will be near zero at best. Lows -10 to -15F, with wcf's at -25 to -35F. Holy Crap! Will rival the cold we had last winter. :o

 

Currently: light freezing drizzle. A mist in the air for sure.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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To me it looks like artic air is destroying the system. 00z will be coming in soon but this morning's runs looked better than this afternoon's.

I agree. I see a suppression of this storm. Too far south. We will see.

 

BTW: Feels good now that daylight hours are longer. At 6:00pm, its still daylight. Spring is knocking at our doorstep and once March rolls on in, then, I am ready for Spring weather. Higher sun angle, longer days, higher average highs and lows make my winter enthusiast go away.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I agree. I see a suppression of this storm. Too far south. We will see.

 

BTW: Feels good now that daylight hours are longer. At 6:00pm, its still daylight. Spring is knocking at our doorstep and once March rolls on in, then, I am ready for Spring weather. Higher sun angle, longer days, higher average highs and lows make my winter enthusiast go away.

 

The 1/31 storm was a suppression for at least 2 runs. Euro barely had a storm in the 72-96 range. It's not unusual to see models lose a storm in the medium range only to bring it back north/stronger as the event nears.

 

I figure you guys would know this after what happened last storm. 

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That sneaky piece of energy in N Mexico can be an important player as well.  It took until 2-3 days out before the models knew what to do with that SW energy for the Super Bowl storm.  Same thing may be the difference with this system.  Yes, it's not as strong comparatively speaking as the Super Bowl storm, but any piece of energy, timing, etc could mean big differences in future runs.

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Also, if we can get that ridge off the west coast to build back farther west off the coast, it will help the system be able to dig much more in the Plains.  Model bias has been to retrograde the trough farther west each day and its something to consider as we are still 144 hours out.  The developing -EPO is also a player in this situation.

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Here is a little technical analysis.  Look at the 06z GFS run and you can see why the track of the SLP was farther NW than tonight's 00z run.  Pay attn to the break down of the ridge in the NE Pacific near SE AK on tonight's 00z run.  This may be model error and because of that it breaks down the ridge and shifts the whole storm SE.  At this time, according to the LRC and model ensembles there should be a ridge of HP building the Alaskan Ridge.  If that ridge starts coming back in future runs, watch the storm take on a track farther NW.  It's very subtle, but significant.

 

 

 

 

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The 1/31 storm was a suppression for at least 2 runs. Euro barely had a storm in the 72-96 range. It's not unusual to see models lose a storm in the medium range only to bring it back north/stronger as the event nears.

 

I figure you guys would know this after what happened last storm. 

What has me concern about a suppression this time around is that this arctic air mass is much more colder than the SB snowstorm. Still days away for models to change their thoughts, but something to think about this time. We will see what happens.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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 I will be shocked if this returns North. Arctic airmass is just too overwhelming-- if the Arctic stuff early next week is anything like what just blew through DSM-- it's going down to around the Bay of Campeche----

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Gotta love the Euro bringing a Blizzard ( at least for them) to Austin, TX at hour 150.

Yup, and then it produces a storm up the East Coast!  The coast line looks to warm to be snow.  850's are 0C hugging the coastline.  Probably an inland snowstorm in JB's back yard.

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Nanook of the North is simply too powerful. Put a fork is this system-- it's past done. Earlier I was joking of course with the low being pushed as far S as the Bay of Campeche from the Arctic air... actually going to be much closer to their then anywhere around here.

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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This thing might get pushed so far south that parts of Mexico could get snow.  :lol:

 

I'm moving to Boston!

Me too!!! :lol:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I've given up on this system, but the Ohio Valley could get a nice hit.

Many of us gave up on the last system as well at this time period which was a mistake. Not saying the same will happen with this system but I believe it's way to early to give up especially 120hrs out.

 

There are many things that can go right and then many can go wrong. I'm not an expert by any means but just glancing at the upper air charts it sure seems that the modeling will change and it could be drastic changes. I see a nice Bermuda High sitting off the SE coast giving us a nice ridge, although weak but still a ridge which is in our favor. The ridge out west looks to be in a favorable position for this storm to cut farther north. I know there is the darn PV in Canada that might force this to go south but that's what we all thought with the last storm.

 

If others can chime in and give their input of what they are seeing that would be great. I just know that all the players are on the field for this to be a pretty intense storm but they all need to play nice together!! :)

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