2/21 - 2/22 Winter Storm Potential

[Tom]

From LOT:

 

 

THINGS BECOME MORE INTERESTING AND COMPLEX FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS A LARGER SCALE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL TRIGGER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS TEXAS
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH/WARM FRONT DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
SFC LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST COMBINING WITH AN OPEN GULF TO BRING A
GOOD PUSH OF MOISTURE NORTHEAST WITH IT. THE SIGNAL FOR THIS SYSTEM
HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS BUT TRACK/STRENGTH DETAILS HAVE
BEEN INCONSISTENT. TYPICALLY A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK WOULD BE FAVORED
COMING OUT OF SUCH A STRONG ARCTIC BLAST BUT WITH THE INITIAL
TROUGH/CLIPPER AND DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW BEFORE THE
MAIN TROUGH DRIVING THIS SYSTEM COMES INTO PLAY THE MID LEVEL
THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE ABLE TO BE PUSHED BACK TOWARD THE AREA. IT
SEEMS THAT GUIDANCE MAY CONTINUE TO FAVOR A NORTHWARD TREND...WHICH
HAS BEEN THE TREND WITH MOST OF THESE SOUTHERN SYSTEMS THIS WINTER.
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH AND FOR NOW SOUTHEAST AREAS WILL BE
AT GREATEST RISK TO HAVE PRECIP FALL SO WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN THESE AREAS. TEMP DETAILS WILL ALSO DEPEND ON THE TRACK BUT
LOWER 30S LOOK GOOD FOR NOW...WITH PRECIP TYPE POSSIBLY BECOMING AN
ISSUE.

[winterfreak]

Lots of precipitation issues though.

[Tom]

12z NAM still looking good for your area....it starts turning the corner and heads ENE towards the end of its run...

[Tom]

FWIW, 12z NAM showing a nice defo band developing in KS as storm seems to be wanting to mature at the end of the run.  Looks like it wants to blossom.

[Tom]

Looks like 12z GFS coming in a tad farther north...

[Tom]

12z GFS...a bit weak this run but farther north.  That northward trend has been the case with storms that come out of the SW like LOT mentioned.  Hopefully it can get stronger in future runs.

[winterfreak]

Wow horrible run. Backside flurries lol. Let the mayhem continue.

[CentralNebWeather]

I guess I like the further north shift but it is sure weaker.  Several more days to track.  Keep getting asked by other faculty members where I get information on storms, potential storms, misses, etc. and I always mention theweatherforums.  Told them I trust information as much on here as local mets.  Thanks for all the great information and think snow.

[Tom]

A little better phasing and this will go back to what the 00z GFS looked like...

[FV-Mike]

Track to me is what is important this far. The strength can be dialed in as we get closer. Just don't want to see wild swings in location

[Tom]

Track to me is what is important this far. The strength can be dialed in as we get closer. Just don't want to see wild swings in location

I agree, the track starting to look like many of the Euro Ensembles a few days back.  Should be getting some better data on tonight's 00z suite of runs.

 

If anyone can post the 06z/12z GEFS mean snowfall maps it would be appreciated.

[CentralNebWeather]

Very good observations.  GFS had this storm days ago and has gone back and forth with strength but track has stayed fairly consistent, except for the usual swings of 100 miles or so.  Hopefully by tomorrow at the 12Z  will be a little more firm with track and intensity.

[Yerf]

IWX throwing out the GEM

GEM DISREGARDED FOR FAST EJECTION FROM
NRN TX PANHANDLE.

[winterfreak]

Just don't want precipitation type issues. The NAM looked promising though.

[winterfreak]

JMA torches around here. Has a 1004 low in oklahoma. I know it's the JMA lol.

[Tony]

12z Euro ensembles from yesterday match up nicely with the 0z runs overnight. Ukie has had this storm from day one and really has not waffled too much as far as track goes. If the track continues then got to give kudos to the Ukie for sniffing this out again!

[Tom]

JMA torches around here. Has a 1004 low in oklahoma. I know it's the JMA lol.

Your prob looking at yesterday's 12z run.  I bet today's run is different.

 

12z Euro ensembles from yesterday match up nicely with the 0z runs overnight. Ukie has had this storm from day one and really has not waffled too much as far as track goes. If the track continues then got to give kudos to the Ukie for sniffing this out again!

Yup, the ensembles are doing a better job so far with this system.  Ukie has been doing a phenomenal job all season long.  Surprised not too many mets pay attn to that model.

[Tom]

Hey Tony, how did the 00z/06z GEFS Ensembles look off of InstantWxMaps???

[Tony]

Hey Tony, how did the 00z/06z GEFS Ensembles look off of InstantWxMaps???

Have not had a chance to look...let me check really quick!

[Tony]

Here is the 0z GEFS Mean. I'm guessing the 6z was not that great but haven't looked yet.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Here is the 0z GEFS Mean. I'm guessing the 6z was not that great but haven't looked yet.

 

Yeah, the 0z GEFS looked quite promising, too bad most of the other 0z models didn't.

[Tom]

12z GGEM coming in amped...

[Tom]

993mb in N OK head NE towards the Lower Lakes...tons of precip...

[Tony]

993mb in N OK head NE towards the Lower Lakes...tons of precip...

Yep...looking pretty darn good!!

[Tom]

Wow, huge step in the right direction on the 12z GGEM...this is turning towards a powerhouse Pan Handle Hook....

[winterfreak]

Either that's a lot of ice with some snow or a lot of rain.

[Money]

UKIE 72

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

 

96

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

[Tom]

UKIE 72

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

 

96

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

Looks like it came in a tad north from last night's runs...

[Money]

GGEM with ratios:

 

http://www.uswxforums.com/forum/uploads/monthly_02_2015/post-4070-0-98892400-1424277970.gif

[Tom]

Either that's a lot of ice with some snow or a lot of rain.

12z GGEM shows mixing issues for your area...

[Tom]

The northward trends has begun...

[winterfreak]

Warm air always wins here. Nice track nonetheless.

[CentralNebWeather]

Not liking the GGEM for Nebraska

[GDR]

[Tom]

12z GGEM jet structure...notice the "rear right" and "front left" exit regions are right over KC/N MO/N IL/N IN/S MI area....maximizes lift potential.

[Tom]

If someone can post the12z GGEM Control/Ensembles when they load.  Thanks in advance.

[Money]

Here are the 12z GGEM ensembles at HR 84:

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2015021812_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@moy_084.png

[Money]

http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2015021812_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@gemglb@gem007_084.png

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2015021812_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@gem008@gem016_084.png

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2015021812_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@gem017@gem020_084.png

[Money]

http://i.imgur.com/e5hPKZV.gif

[james1976]

Nice trend but im still way out of the game for now. But...I am lurking. ha