indianajohn Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 This storm is skilling official he just mentioned it he must be of fan of the weather forums LOL......he probably calls Tom for his take on storms LOL!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 12z Euro with a 998mb SLP developing near Amarillo, TX at 72 HR.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 12z Euro with a 998mb SLP developing near Amarillo, TX at 72 HR.... About 7 mb stronger than same timeframe on yesterday 12z run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 Def. farther NW and stronger. 1002 in NW Ohio at 96. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 12z Euro....baby steps...it looses some steam as it heads ENE and doesn't really wrap up into a mature storm. 12z NAM sorta looked like it wanted to amp up towards the end of the run. 12z GGEM the most aggressive storm, but the Euro is playing catch up now. Nice trends in the models today. Better sampling def evident. Tonight's runs will be interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 Euro has been playing catch-up most of this winter so not surprised. It still has a ways to go and probably won't reach it's full potential until about 36hrs or so out but still nice trends today on the 12z runs. The potential is definitely there for a nice wound-up storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 GFS ensembles 72 hr precip: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPCN72NE_12z/f114.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 I think there will be more of an expansive precip shield with this system. This storm is taking on a text book Winter Strom track for the Plains/Lakes and the GOM is open for business. Models that are playing catch up are getting stronger/wetter since yesterday. As this storm encompasses the balloon network, I could see some bigger improvements. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 NW trend doing its thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 I thought the teleconnections didn't support any phasing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 I thought the teleconnections didn't support any phasing?I am pleasantly surprised the models are phasing this system. The downstream HP to the east is allowing this storm to dig/slow moreso than previous days. It's not often you see a phased storm with a sky high AO/NAO. I think the transitioning PNA is the helping factor here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 If you based everything solely on teleconnections then Boston would not have had as much snow as they are having. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 Any word on the euro ensembles? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 Any word on the euro ensembles? Most are NW of the OP as usual Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 Couple of pretty big storms it looks like with several below 996 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 Not gonna lie as I like where we are sitting with the current modeling but I would like to see more precip being thrown back into the cold sector to make this even more interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 12z JMA...came NW this run and following suit with the rest of the models... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 A significant number of the 12z Euro Ensembles have a KS/MI special...trend is more widespread with snowfall and a stronger system. The mean axis of the heaviest snowfall has shifted NW from yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 After reviewing all 51 members individually, there are a lot more wound up solutions that previous runs. This baby is trending in the right direction. I think someone is going to get clobbered. Pretty quick hitter in this type of pattern...maybe an 8-12 hour storm if all works out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 18z NAM pretty similar to 12z so far through 69. Maybe a hair north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 NAM is having a bad winter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 18z NAM surprisingly weaker... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 Just for fun 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 That's a really thin band. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawkfan Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 In the Snow area this weekend. But riding the northern edge it be interesting to see how this plays out as the week progresses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 NAM = Horrible- I am trying not to lose hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 ORD SREF Mean through 06z Sun is at 3.13"... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 Man, 18z GFS crapped out as well....not phasing as good anymore.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 Not too worried about the 18z runs. Now if the 0z and 12z runs tomorrow show the same scenario then its a trend but 1 run not so much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 You think a trend has started and then it does that lol. So frustrating. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 Do the 06z/18z runs digest balloon data??? I heard that only the 00z/12z runs do so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 Do the 06z/18z runs digest balloon data??? I heard that only the 00z/12z runs do so.Not sure but full sampling probably not till Friday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trinomial Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 Do the 06z/18z runs digest balloon data??? I heard that only the 00z/12z runs do so.Tom, they do not. This may be the reason for bad phasing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 Tom, they do not. This may be the reason for bad phasing.Which is why anything past 72 hours (other then temp trends) is basically useless on the 6 and 18Z runs... 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 SREF's are very lame. 0z NAM coming in a bit north through 54. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 Nam is weak Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 NAM is a step in the wrong direction. Kind of discouraging trends between 18z and 0z NAM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 Where did the storm go? Wow hope nam isn't on to something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 Skilling's RPM model looked like a sheared wave...nothing really special...and it was south as well... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 Can't wait to see what tonight's Euro runs show! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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