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2/21 - 2/22 Winter Storm Potential


Tom

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GFS and NAM leave most of the western energy out west, where it cuts off and parks over California.  That won't leave anything but a light snow shower and more cold air for us.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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My forecast is calling for 3-6inches???!!! WTF? :o  My area needs to lower those amounts to around an inch or less. This storm was forecast to move south and transform its energy off the east coast, at least inland areas to get heavy snow and snow to rain for the coast. What a weird storm its shaping out to be.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I still have interest in this system. As mentioned below, until this thing is sampled there can be changes.

 

LOT

GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED
AND CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE STRENGTH/SPEED OF THIS
WAVE AND THEREFORE THE STRENGTH/SPEED OF THE RESULTANT SURFACE
LOW. LATEST RUNS SHOW A LESS IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM BUT CONTINUITY IS
LACKING SO AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT. THE PARENT WAVE THAT WILL DRIVE
ALL OF THIS IS STILL OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND SHOULD BE
ONSHORE BY THIS EVENING FOR BETTER RAOB SAMPLING.

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Will have to wait for the 12z runs to see what the verdict is but the last couple runs showing a much weaker sheared out wave not able to produce much precip in the cold sector. The main ingredient to the track and strength of this storm is still out of range and will not have a partial sampling till the 0z runs and a full sampling by 12z tomorrow so expect to see more model waffling until then. We have seen this soo many times this year we should be used to it and probably not even start to follow a storm system until it is about 36hrs out.

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I think I just said this a few days ago on the previous storm... NEXT!! Man what a crappy winter for most of us here. Sure it's been cold at times, but other than 1-2 storms, this winter has definitely not shaped up to what it was supposed to be when we were all talking about it last fall. So much for the back to back winters like the late 70s that this was supposed to rival. March can still be a good month for a big snowstorm, so we can't write that off yet, although I'm not holding my breath. Heck, if I had been holding my breath for all the big pattern changes and big storms that were supposed to be coming, I would have been dead back at the end of December, lol!!

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I still have interest in this system. As mentioned below, until this thing is sampled there can be changes.

 

LOT

GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED

AND CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE STRENGTH/SPEED OF THIS

WAVE AND THEREFORE THE STRENGTH/SPEED OF THE RESULTANT SURFACE

LOW. LATEST RUNS SHOW A LESS IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM BUT CONTINUITY IS

LACKING SO AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT. THE PARENT WAVE THAT WILL DRIVE

ALL OF THIS IS STILL OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND SHOULD BE

ONSHORE BY THIS EVENING FOR BETTER RAOB SAMPLING.

enjoy your sloppy inch of snow.

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American models vs European...who will win out in the end. Not a big storm either way and what a shame with all that moisture to the south....what could have been!!

The only one left standing is "Oh Canada". What does it know that the other models are not seeing....either has better sampling of northern wave or just out of touch with reality.

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Where the hell did Saturday storm go? Starting this thread's so early pointless 2nd storm in a row Tom has started only to have the storm vanish. Think time to ban Tom from starting new thread's about future storm clearly he's to blame for our sudden vanishing storm's. What it could of been with all the moisture to the south.

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Where the hell did Saturday storm go? Starting this thread's so early pointless 2nd storm in a row Tom has started only to have the storm vanish. Think time to ban Tom from starting new thread's about future storm clearly he's to blame for our sudden vanishing storm's. What it could of been with all the moisture to the south.

:rolleyes:

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@ Seasqaukfan

 

You're not serious I hope. Everyone on every board has been taken to the cleaners by these craptastic mid to long range model outputs. Tom's contributions make this board a place worth visiting, unlike your own. Get real dude!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This thread was started 4 days before the potential storm. Was it not supposed to be started until after all the warnings went up if the storm came to fruition?

Tom started a thread for something we were all talking about already anyways. Why the hell does it matter whether we are talking about it in a specific thread about that POTENTIAL storm or talking about it along with everything else we discussed in that month?

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Get a grip people. If anyone should be pissed about storms that don't come to fruition, it should be me and the other people who plow to make a living and pay the bills in the winter. Tom does a great job putting forth the best information he can to track storms. Nothing wrong with starting a thread for a storm that will eventually affect someone here on this forum.

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Get a grip people. If anyone should be pissed about storms that don't come to fruition, it should be me and the other people who plow to make a living and pay the bills in the winter. Tom does a great job putting forth the best information he can to track storms. Nothing wrong with starting a thread for a storm that will eventually affect someone here on this forum.

 

Inside 120hrs is actually being very conservative for thread starting. Heck, look at AccuWx's forums, they'll start threads 15 days out. LOL! This board has it's core following from Chicago west to Nebraska, so a thread in this forum won't likely be started for an event that's only going to hit a few of us outside that geographical zone. Case in point, these clippers that have hit SWMI and mby a couple times this winter = no thread. And that's fine. I don't need a thread for a few posts from a few of us getting hit. Makes no sense. I'm sure Tom is just as frustrated at how teased we've been by the mid-range models this season.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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At any rate, RGEM chucks some of us a bone. If this could go a bit stronger, we'd take a 3-6" event and get it back to a stripe of warning level snows. Let's see what curve balls the next 48 hrs can hurl at us.

 

http://www.uswxforums.com/forum/uploads/monthly_02_2015/post-4070-0-46322100-1424386202.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The NAM has really surged solid moisture back up into the Ohio Valley region this evening, so folks from Missouri to Ohio could still get a nice snowfall.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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