March 2015 Observations and Discussion

[gosaints]

The models are hanging more of the western energy out west with each run.  The 12z GFS now has a nice-looking upper low over the sw conus that could be a major player next week.

Yep patterns are hard to break, but when it finally breaks we should see some nice events out of the SW i would think

[CentralNebWeather]

Why does it keep shifting south?  Is the high pressure that strong?  Keep hoping for northward trend but things are not looking good.

[GDR]

Why anyone would mention the DGEX is beyond me.

it actually hasn't been that bad this winter. It seems to pick up systems quicker.

[GDR]

It wouldn't surprise me one bit if southern Missouri and Western Kentucky end up in the prime spot

[gosaints]

Yep patterns are hard to break, but when it finally breaks we should see some nice events out of the SW i would think

 

Why does it keep shifting south?  Is the high pressure that strong?  Keep hoping for northward trend but things are not looking good.

Energy held back. High pressure as well. Shears the systems as it heads east

[Hawkeye]

Why does it keep shifting south?  Is the high pressure that strong?  Keep hoping for northward trend but things are not looking good.

 

2-3 days ago the models showed a good chunk of western energy rounding the bend and getting pulled up ahead of(and phasing with) the next northern lobe of energy, but the last several runs have sped up the northern piece and slowed the western/southern piece.  Now the northern energy will simply sweep through fairly quietly for the I-80 corridor.

[Tom]

12z GFS with the 2nd piece....looking interesting with that energy back in the SW.  Wouldn't take much to see this energy to phase with northern piece.

[gosaints]

Phase? What is that. Only kidding. Its been awhile

[NEJeremy]

This is comical. A couple of days ago we had a clipper on roids heading for eastern Nebraska and a system that had been showing up consistently in the same area on almost all models for this weekend that between the two of them were going to dump well over 12". Now it's looking like 3 or 4" if we're lucky. I believe someone made reference to maybe someone here on the forum will be the new Boston over the next couple of weeks. This just goes to show you, how insanely lucky you have to be if you were in Boston this year. First off, no place here in the central US should ever expect 90+" of snow in one month, but it shows how rare it is to be in the bullseye for system after system. It looks like Iowa for the storm tomorrow and now it looks like Kansas for the weekend storm. Wonder what the Euro and Canadian will show for 12Z

[Tom]

Might be tacking on more sub-zero nights this month, especially with a fresh layer of snow around.  Back to Back March opens with bitter cold/snow???  That's something that rarely happens around here.

[gosaints]

Might be tacking on more sub-zero nights this month, especially with a fresh layer of snow around.  Back to Back March opens with bitter cold/snow???  That's something that rarely happens around here.

Entirely possible but would probably mean a continued pattern of unphased supression

[Niko]

Boston under a WWA for 3-5inches. Neverending snow for them.

[winterfreak]

Yeah pretty good look on the GFS. Trending weaker though. Might have to worry about supression now.

[Tom]

Entirely possible but would probably mean a continued pattern of unphased supression

A phased system would mean a more amplified trough that would tug down even colder air on the back side of the system.  I'd imagine it would increase the chances of colder air.

[Tom]

GFS backing down on the "warmth" in the longer range and looking colder now.  SST's would argue that a western ridge to continue throughout the month.  Don't see how the -EPO pattern would break.  On top of that, the GGEM/GFS/EURO ensembles showing signs of more blocking to develop as we head deeper into March which would produce even higher chances of below normal temps.  The winter pattern that keeps on giving.

[Jaycee]

Omg everyone in Nebraska. This thing is still far out, relax. You know it's not good to be in the bullseye this far out. I think we'll be fine. Especially if this thing phases like I think it will

[gosaints]

A phased system would mean a more amplified trough that would tug down even colder air on the back side of the system.  I'd imagine it would increase the chances of colder air.

Right we need a gradient pattern not what the GFS is showing for the central conus

[NEJeremy]

GFS backing down on the "warmth" in the longer range and looking colder now.  SST's would argue that a western ridge to continue throughout the month.  Don't see how the -EPO pattern would break.  On top of that, the GGEM/GFS/EURO ensembles showing signs of more blocking to develop as we head deeper into March which would produce even higher chances of below normal temps.  The winter pattern that keeps on giving.

Can you remind me what has the winter pattern kept on giving?  Bouts of cold with little to no snow? Well sign me up!!

[Tom]

Can you remind me what has the winter pattern kept on giving?  Bouts of cold with little to no snow? Well sign me up!!

In terms of overall Winter weather, yes, snowfall in NE...a simple "NO"  .  We are seeing a different pattern evolving so hopefully NE can start cashing in on some snowfall.  The 3rd/4th system looks very interesting.  00z Euro tanked the NAO/AO towards neutral rather quickly during this period.  Might be a fluky run, but it may be "seeing" the higher latitude blocking trying to set up this month.

[Yerf]

Temps forecasted for next week

 

[Tom]

I think the Great Lakes have a real good chance of getting close to the all-time ice coverage this month.  It would be an extraordinary accomplishment given how this winter has evolved into a really cold back loaded season.  Lake Michigan may give that some problems as it still has alot of warmer waters.

 

http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/ncast/mswt-00.gif

[Tom]

Temps forecasted for next week

aaa.jpg

00z Euro also trying to spin up a weak Pan Handle Hook system, but we need that blocking to really blow it up into a significant storm system.

[Niko]

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/thumb/msid-28628022,width-640,resizemode-4/chilling-images-hudson-river-frozen-by-polar-vortex.jpg

 

Hudson River frozen.

 

http://philpenman.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/140109_Hudson_River_Frozen_0051-820x546.jpg

 

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/thumb/msid-28628015,width-640,resizemode-4/ice-flow-in-hudson-river.jpg

[gosaints]

I think the Great Lakes have a real good chance of getting close to the all-time ice coverage this month.  It would be an extraordinary accomplishment given how this winter has evolved into a really cold back loaded season.  Lake Michigan may give that some problems as it still has alot of warmer waters.

 

http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/ncast/mswt-00.gif

Didnt the lakes start the winter quite cool?

[Tom]

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/thumb/msid-28628022,width-640,resizemode-4/chilling-images-hudson-river-frozen-by-polar-vortex.jpg

 

Hudson River frozen.

 

http://philpenman.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/140109_Hudson_River_Frozen_0051-820x546.jpg

 

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/thumb/msid-28628015,width-640,resizemode-4/ice-flow-in-hudson-river.jpg

Starting to look like that movie "The Day After Tomorrow" ...

[Tom]

Didnt the lakes start the winter quite cool?

Yes, and you probably missed my post earlier which I commented about how this year's lake temps started off cooler than last year which gave it a head start

[Niko]

Starting to look like that movie "The Day After Tomorrow" ...

Yes, exactly, I was thinking about that myself.

[Tom]

Yes, exactly, I was thinking about that myself.

Might have another repeat year next year if the JAMSTEC is right....cooler than normal SST's hugging the East Coast would suggest a trough.  Another fast start to winter is on the table next season with these SST's.

[Iowawx]

What did the 12Z Euro show for the weekend storm?

[Hawkeye]

What did the 12Z Euro show for the weekend storm?

 

Looks like an inch or so for Cedar Rapids, but that's only if the models don't trend even farther south and weaker.

[GDR]

They keep trending south, so I wouldn't be surprised if Cedar Rapids only got flurries or light snow showers.

[winterfreak]

18z GFS destroys Kansas.

[Tom]

CFSv2 looks not looking pretty if your hoping for a warm Spring.  Wait till the "cold phase" of the LRC hits late March/early April.  Would not be surprised to see some snow events during that period in the region.  Spring snows not out of the question in this pattern.

 

[james1976]

CFSv2 looks not looking pretty if your hoping for a warm Spring.  Wait till the "cold phase" of the LRC hits late March/early April.  Would not be surprised to see some snow events during that period in the region.  Spring snows not out of the question in this pattern.

After having a 9" snowstorm on MAY 2, 2013 nothing surprises me anymore. I'm still hoping for a backloaded Winter.

[CentralNebWeather]

Did the 18z gfs come q little north with the weekend storm compared to 12z? I am trying to compare on my phone. Just looks my area of south central Nebraska gets hit harder. Hopefully not just wishful thinking on my part.

[Tom]

Last night's Euro run may not have been a fluke run regarding the NAO.  Today's run agreeing with the possibility of a Greenland Block to develop next week.

[Tom]

Boy, 12z Euro Ensembles trending colder Day 10-15.  Below you can see the Day 10-15 Mean 500mb pattern below.  Notice that sneaky "east based" Greenland Block starting to come into the picture.

[NEJeremy]

Did the 18z gfs come q little north with the weekend storm compared to 12z? I am trying to compare on my phone. Just looks my area of south central Nebraska gets hit harder. Hopefully not just wishful thinking on my part.

It still doesn't look good for this weekend. Central and southern KS are still the prime area. However, there is another piece of energy that comes out on Monday that brings snow to Nebraska

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Just like I feared, even with a -PNA, any strong SE Ridge is squashed and becomes a mirage over time.  I am 90% sure I won't see a storm over 4" this month.  It's been years since Milwaukee has seen a big March storm (2008 was the last one over 8" I believe).

[Maxim]

DT strongly suggesting that a significant pattern change will occur after March 8th. We shall see by then.