2/25 - 2/26 Clipper

[Tom]

12z GGEM...

[Hawkeye]

12z UK precip.... even farther ne.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/accum/PA_000-060_0000.gif

[Tom]

Looking forward to see what this Clipper produces around here.  Need to cover up some of the "dirty" snow poppin' up that have been absorbing the "heat energy" from the sun.  Even if NE IL gets 2-3", I'll be happy...even 2" would do.

[james1976]

Winter Storm Watch only 1 county away from me. Looking interesting.

[Grizzcoat]

Des Moines in wsw. Should have been with morning update... Dmx Nws one of the most anti snow offices around.

[bud2380]

I think the wide model spread caused them to delay. Coming closer to agreement although the nam and gfs remain further west than the rgem, ggem, And uk

[Tom]

Skilling's RPM model was bullish with the snowfall in N IL with widespread 2-3" snows.  It was even farther N and E from last night's run.

[bud2380]

Euro further ne than American models. So we still have a significant spread on the models, although in general agreement, there's a good 50-100 mile difference on heaviest placement

[Tom]

12z Euro...looks like it pivots right over C IA....this storm is going to look really nice on radar tomorrow.

[Grizzcoat]

Updated grids from nws dmx give 5-11" just W of DSM.

[Tom]

Skilling's in-house model going with 3-4" lakeside counties...pretty interesting

[Hawkeye]

This clipper pretty much blows up over Iowa and then dies.

[FV-Mike]

Skilling's in-house model going with 3-4" lakeside counties...pretty interesting

Saw the noon broadcast. Widespread 3" totals across northern IL

[james1976]

This has quickly become way more exciting than the weekend "storm"

[Grizzcoat]

On phone so I could be wrong.. But did the 18z Nam take a jog SW?

[gosaints]

On phone so I could be wrong.. But did the 18z Nam take a jog SW?

Not much change on the NAM.  SREFS pretty far the other direction

[gosaints]

Not much change on the NAM.  SREFS pretty far the other directions

hard to tell on srefs though.  As usual they are being stupid with ratio in certain areas

[Grizzcoat]

Can someone post the 18z Nam snow map?

[Maxim]

This clipper pretty much blows up over Iowa and then dies.

Exactly, which is why I'm thinking no more than 2" IMBY, which might even be too high.

[Grizzcoat]

Winter Storm Warning for my area!!! from a "clipper"

[Grizzcoat]

[Grizzcoat]

NAM HI-RES-

[NEJeremy]

Enjoy central Iowa- looks like all of the models have settled in on a path and amounts for the most part. Shouldn't see too many surprises out of this tomorrow.

[Tom]

D**n, Brant Miller just posted the RPM model painting 4-6" pockets in NE IL.  Pretty impressive LehS.

[james1976]

Looking great. That 6" area is nudging closer to me. WWA for my county for 3-5". The county just to my SW is in a warning. Just a nudge to the east and I could be hitting the jackpot. I always do well with these clippers. And they always seem to track more to the northeast as the event gets close. Hopefully that pattern continues.

[james1976]

Des Moines is right in the jackpot. Looking like a great chance of 8+ there.

[Tom]

This would be the 2nd Clipper on roids this season for IA that may produce 6-8" totals.  Last one was in January if I remember correctly.  Similar situation with higher snow fall ratios.

 

I'd be stoked if ORD can pick up 3-4" from the LehS snow fall.  ORD is roughly 7" shy of the all-time snowiest February on record.  Let's see how we finish this month.

[bud2380]

Hrrr looks further northeast to me at hour 15. We'll see how that pans out

[Tom]

Hrrr looks further northeast to me at hour 15. We'll see how that pans out

You just read my mind buddy...Here is the precip map...

[james1976]

You just read my mind buddy...Here is the precip map...

That would be heading right at me.

[Grizzcoat]

00Z NAM more N and E

[GDR]

Wow can't believe the amount of shifting this close.

[Grizzcoat]

RAP and HRRR see it also-- my call from yday of the max totals being E of I-35 appear to have some merit.

[Tom]

00z NAM...here it is...

[james1976]

00z NAM...here it is..

6" for me. If all 00z models come in a bit east I wonder if they will expand the Warning to the east.

[Grizzcoat]

00z GFS more amped-- 

[james1976]

Love it. Keeps getting better. All models have the 6 inch line all the way to me now and C IA is still looking at 10" potential.

[Grizzcoat]

NEW GFS foi DSM

 

WED 12Z 25-FEB -8.7 -3.9 1015 80 99 0.00 545 533
WED 18Z 25-FEB -7.5 -5.5 1015 96 99 0.24 542 531
THU 00Z 26-FEB -8.4 -9.7 1017 95 99 0.27 538 525
THU 06Z 26-FEB -13.1 -16.0 1026 91 100 0.09 535 515 

 

18Z

 

WED 18Z 25-FEB -6.9 -6.5 1015 96 99 0.19 542 530
THU 00Z 26-FEB -7.7 -9.0 1017 95 99 0.22 537 524
THU 06Z 26-FEB -13.5 -16.8 1026 91 100 0.06 533 513

 

i will take it

[Tom]

00z RGEM...

[james1976]

New update from DMX:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
958 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO COME IN FARTHER NORTHEAST WITH EACH RUN AND THE
00Z NAM AND GFS KEEPS THE TREND GOING. HAVE INCLUDED A FEW MORE
COUNTIES INTO THE WARNING AREA AND THIS MAY NEED TO BE MODIFIED
EVEN MORE WITH THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE. FORCING STILL VERY
IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM AND RAW OUTPUT FROM BOTH NAM AND GFS
SUGGEST AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES WITH SOME AMOUNTS APPROACHING 10
FROM NEAR KFOD TO KTNU AND KOTM BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE TO BE EVALUATED DEEPER BY OVERNIGHT SHIFT WITH
ADDITIONAL AMOUNT ADJUSTMENTS LIKELY AS WELL.