3/1 - 3/3 Spring Storm Potential

[WildWisconsinWeather]

If the winter trends other than one storm hold true it will end up a subtle 999 mb over chicago

 

We've had one storm this year track near Chicago, wouldn't mind that outcome, but hasn't happened that often lately.

[gosaints]

Isn't that what happened a lot last winter as well?  Haha, I actually think if the first wave trends north and stronger, it would help suppress this second storm a bit as stronger storms tend to dig troughs a bit more directly after.

North stronger?  What does that mean?

[WildWisconsinWeather]

North stronger?  What does that mean?

 

I know, slim chance of it happening, that's what Money and I probably need, otherwise we may miss this first wave south and the second wave passes to the north.

[gosaints]

I know, slim chance of it happening, that's what Money and I probably need, otherwise we may miss this first wave south and the second wave passes to the north.

At this point in the winter I just want to track a wound up winter storm.  To be honest I dont even care if it pounds on minneapolis or madison.

[CentralNebWeather]

If the Canadian verifies, Nebraska gets a good hit from wave #3 from Tuesday night to Wednesday.  I am sure there will many changes coming in the next few days so nothing is set in stone.

[Tom]

Tom, how did the 0z euro ensembles look?

[gosaints]

If the Canadian verifies, Nebraska gets a good hit from wave #3 from Tuesday night to Wednesday.  I am sure there will many changes coming in the next few days so nothing is set in stone.

Models will struggle with these waves inside of 48 hours just not enough energy spits out at once to really latch onto a solution

[Snowlover76]

GGEM. Yes please.

[Money]

GGEM Total for 2 waves:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015022612/gem_asnow_us_31.png

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015022612/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015022612/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png

[NEJeremy]

GGEM has been pretty consistent with it's track and strength, hopefully it's on to something

[Money]

Euro's gonna go big.

 

992 in E. CO already at HR 120.

[Money]

990.8 in S/C MI at HR 144

 

Interested to see the snow maps.

[Maxim]

This one's going north, will this finally be MSP's storm?

[Snowlover76]

How did the Euro look for Lincoln? 

[GDR]

Wow way north this run.

[Tom]

12z Euro...combining 1st wave and second wave...

[jcwxguy]

How did the Euro look for Lincoln? 

not well,  .21 from first wave (all snow)   then .24 from 2nd (mostly rain)

[GDR]

Doesn't look like much! On to the next.

[Snowlover76]

not well,  .21 from first wave (all snow)   then .24 from 2nd (mostly rain)

ugly. 

[Niko]

I'd say give it until tomorrow and then models will have a better grip on what to forecast down the road.

 

FWIW; Possibly another storm by end of next week.

[Money]

Have to watch for the potential of frozen surfaces in areas that get rain. It's been so cold this month with no warmup in sight beforehand that even 33-34 2m temps could cause a lot of problems. 

[gosaints]

Have to watch for the potential of frozen surfaces in areas that get rain. It's been so cold this month with no warmup in sight beforehand that even 33-34 2m temps could cause a lot of problems. 

Ya someplace is gonna get at least front end ZR.

[gosaints]

Would be a pretty big coup if the GGEM and the UKIE take down the GFS/EURO

[Hawkeye]

The model trend is disappointing.  Instead of big snow, it's little snow followed by rain.

[james1976]

I cant stand rain in the winter. Hoping for better trends in the coming days.

[Hawkeye]

I cant stand rain in the winter. Hoping for better trends in the coming days.

 

I'd rather get a dumping of snow, but next week will be meteorological spring so we have to start expecting more rain.

[Seahawkfan]

 

Pretty darn close to a sure bet there's No Major Snowstorm this weekend early next week. It was fun while it lasted.

[Tom]

18z NAM...Euro Ensembles are slow to load today...

[Maxim]

I cant stand rain in the winter. Hoping for better trends in the coming days.

Except it'll be spring by then.

[NEJeremy]

Kansas City AFD says 4-8" of snow from the first wave in last night's overnight discussion. They look to be doing pretty good, even if it will all melt right away with the next wave of precip

[IAWXFan1]

Except it'll be spring by then. 

 

 

Weather doesn't read calendars luckily. 

[Tom]

So far 12z Euro Ensembles following the southern trend for the first wave.  Hitting KC/N MO/C IL/C IN/N OH the hardest...1-3" in N IL/S IA/S MI...

[Tom]

Way to much spread on the 12z Euro Ensembles...lots of wound up storms cutting near Chicago and points SE, tons of sheared waves, some with no system at all.  Not enough consistency yet.

[Tom]

18z GFS...first wave...

[NEJeremy]

Local WFO calling for 1-2" here this weekend. Definitely a big disappointment from the high totals that were showing up for quite a while on most of the models earlier last weekend and beginning of this week.

[winterfreak]

Thing is getting weaker every run. Gary Lezak going 1-4" here which is a good bet.

[Niko]

My local weatherman just said that SEMI will receive 3-6 inches with Sundays storm. I'll sign up for that!

[Trinomial]

18z GFS has a little more qpf for N IL than the 12z. Not that it's a lot, but I'm curious to see the 00z runs.

[Maxim]

2.1" final call for the first wave.