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Peter Sinks, UT Climate


IbrChris

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That's cool stuff. Brought back memories for me too. I first really got into the weather in 1994, when I was 11 years old. I used to write down the max/min for PDX every day using pencil and paper. Daily records too, whenever I could catch them on the 5 o'clock news. We weren't subscribing to any newspapers at the time, so watching the weather segment on the news was literally my only source of weather information. I still have all my old weather notes from the 1990's.

How interesting. Starting in 1997 (when I was 11) I kept a daily journal which included the high and low at VUO, complete with little icon-like pictures I drew alongside it to illustrate what the day's weather had looked like. I kept a journal like that all through high school and a bit beyond.

 

I resumed something similar my three years out in Stevenson, this time generally writing a small note on the weather event(s) of the day, along with the high and low.

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How interesting. Starting in 1997 (when I was 11) I kept a daily journal which included the high and low at VUO, complete with little icon-like pictures I drew alongside it to illustrate what the day's weather had looked like. I kept a journal like that all through high school and a bit beyond.

 

I resumed something similar my three years out in Stevenson, this time generally writing a small note on the weather event(s) of the day, along with the high and low.

 

I kept paper logs all the way until 2000, when I got my first girlfriend.  :lol:

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Just using the simple conversion.

 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/epz/?n=wxcalc_pressurealtitude

 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/epz/wxcalc/pressureConversion.pdf

 

Unfortunately ESRL doesn't have an 800mb option, it just jumps from 700mb to 850mb.

 

Definitely larger than a 100 mb difference between the two stations though, and so this already bad continental scale reanalysis comparison is even worse. The resolution on these maps is something like 50-100 km by the looks of how smoothed it is. You could do somewhat better by using those equations you listed to estimate the pressure and temperature at each of the summits even though there are also problems with that. For example, the different thermal profiles mean that the equation may over or underestimate the T/P changes. 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Somebody should find the DJF averages for Mt. Washington over 9 year periods and see if they can even find anything comparable to what was actually observed at Rainier for its 9 year period. 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Definitely larger than a 100 mb difference between the two stations though, and so this already bad continental scale reanalysis comparison is even worse. The resolution on these maps is something like 50-100 km by the looks of how smoothed it is. You could do somewhat better by using those equations you listed to estimate the pressure and temperature at each of the summits even though there are also problems with that. For example, the different thermal profiles mean that the equation may over or underestimate the T/P changes.

I'm aware, thanks. I wasn't trying to suggest the two profiles above represented summit temperatures. I was only comparing the difference between the two locations' temperatures aloft.

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My thoughts as a meteorologist after reading this thread:
 

* Mt Rainier is probably colder on average than Mt Washington (summit of both) in the winter (DJF) and annualized timeframes.

* I think it's tough to say which has a higher mean wind speed (though with a typically stronger jet Mt Washington probably sees higher absolute wind speeds than Rainier).

Let's examine H7 and H5 windspeeds (annual mean)

Rainier proxies:
UIL (1966-2014): 21 kts (H7), 34 kts (H5)
SLE (1956-2014): 21 kts (H7), 34 kts (H5)

Washington proxies:
PWM and GYX (1948-2014): 18 kts (H8), 27 kts (H7), 41 kts (H5)
ALB (1948-2014): 20 kts (H8), 28 kts (H7), 41 kts (H5)

Summit of Mt Washington is 6,288' or about 800 mb.
Summit of Rainier is 14,411' or about 590 mb (~600 mb).

H8, H7 and H5 annual mean temps at the same locations (deg C):
UIL: 3, -4, -19
SLE: 5, -2, -18

PWM/GYX: 2, -4, -19
ALB: 3, -3, -18

700 mb and 500 mb temps are pretty similar, annualized, at both Washington and Rainier meaning Rainier's summit is certainly colder than Mt Washington on average.

 

Wind speeds are tough to predict at Rainier as the summit is higher (expected higher winds) but broader (more surface friction at summit level versus a smaller summit area like Washington), so I can't say for certain which has stronger mean winds. I wouldn't be surprised if Rainier averaged lower on its summit (Columbia Crest), but potentially a location near the edge of the summit like Liberty Cap could average higher than Mt Washington. Winds on the windward aspects of the summit are likely stronger than those on the summit itself and on the leeward aspects.

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The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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I have to concede my position on average summit temperatures. I thought I'd read a solid piece of literature on the issue somewhere, but I cannot find it.

 

Talked about the topic with one of my professors (Dynamicist w/ a PhD in mesoscale meteorology), and he basically just tore into me before sarcastically expressing his "profound disappointment" :lol:

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Great news Phil! Sorry for being a jerk to you :)

 

Anyway, it was a fun debate.

It's no problem at all. In the end, as much as we bicker, we're just a big, dysfunctional family with a strange, shared hobby. :)

 

Somehow I screwed up the hydrostatic equation for the ALR I was using...so yeah, I'm kinda somber right now. That's just incompetence on my part. However, I honestly don't have any "pride" invested here. I really thought I was correct.

 

To be fair, though, as much as I love PRISM, I'd still avoid invoking it in circumstances like this. Though I'm not sure there's much more we can actually do, at least without more concrete observational data for Rainier.

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I have to concede my position on average summit temperatures. I thought I'd read a solid piece of literature on the issue somewhere, but I cannot find it.

 

Talked about the topic with one of my professors (Dynamicist w/ a PhD in mesoscale meteorology), and he basically just tore into me before sarcastically expressing his "profound disappointment" :lol:

It's cool...I don't think any less of you. It led to an interesting discussion. In the absence of actual observations on Rainier the only real data to look at is proxy data from soundings...but IMO it's inconclusive which location has a higher mean wind speed with the limited data available.

The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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* Mt Rainier is probably colder on average than Mt Washington (summit of both) in the winter (DJF) and annualized timeframes.

 

 

Thanks Chris; that's the conclusion I have as well.

 

The 10C/18F temperature change for similar altitudes in New England vs. Mt Rainier just wouldn't be enough to compensate for the altitude.  That would mean that the temperature change between 6288 feet and 14,411 feet would have to be less than 18F, which is unlikely.

 

Anyway, it was an interesting discussion if even if it got out of hand at times.

 

I have to say that even though indications are that Rainier is a little colder in winter, comparing the winter temperatures on Rainier vs. Mt Washington to me actually makes Mt. Washington more impressive, not less.   All indications I have say that winter temperatures on Mt Washington (6288 feet) are equivalent to about 13,000 feet on Mt Rainier.   This is very impressive since Mt Washington is less than half that elevation.    It also means that Mt Washington is colder in winter than all other Cascade Peaks, besides Rainier.    It must also be mentioned that even if Rainier is as windy as Mount Washington, that a 100 mph wind (or any other speed) has a lot more force at 6288 feet than it would at 14,411 feet.

 

Anyway, I guess I have to accept some responsibility for starting the debate since it was my webpage that seems to have started it.  ;)   When I created it, I never knew that it would start such a debate.

 

That said, my two biggest hobbies are weather and mountains, so discussing mountain weather combines both of them.   I love weather mountain statistics and have climbed more than 2000 mountains and always pay attention to the weather conditions.

 

And just for fun, here's a photo of me shielding my face from the cold from a -85F windchill on the old chart (a less impressive -58F on the new chart):

 

http://www.summitpost.org/images/medium/40311.jpg

 

I'm in the mountains in all kinds of weather.  ;)

 

In the absence of actual observations on Rainier the only real data to look at is proxy data from soundings

 

I wonder how the data I provided on Mt Rainier compares with the proxy data?   It will be interesting to compare.

 

Anyway, back to the most interesting topic of Peter Sinks!

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It's cool...I don't think any less of you. It led to an interesting discussion. In the absence of actual observations on Rainier the only real data to look at is proxy data from soundings...but IMO it's inconclusive which location has a higher mean wind speed with the limited data available.

Thanks.

 

From what I've read, the topography of the White Mountain range itself plays a significant role in accelerating the winds on Mount Washington. I'm pretty sure Mt. Washington takes the cake on this one, but I'll see if I can find anything else about it on google scholar.

 

If the NWS point-click forecasts are any indication, though, it's probably Mt. Washington.

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Thanks.

 

From what I've read, the topography of the White Mountain range itself plays a significant role in accelerating the winds on Mount Washington. I'm pretty sure Mt. Washington takes the cake on this one, but I'll see if I can find anything else about it on google scholar.

 

If the NWS point-click forecasts are any indication, though, it's probably Mt. Washington.

I tend to agree with this because looking at Albany and Portland, ME sounding archives the 700 mb wind speed (28 knots) averages below the Mt Washington mean wind speed (35 mph or 30 knots), even though the summit is considerably below 700 mb pressure level.

 

I can also see the wind on Mt Washington being more extreme in absolute terms (231 mph) but the mean speed falling below Mt Rainier's. Not surprising given Rainier is around 590-600 mb. Bottom line is I can't say either way with any confidence at this point.

The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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I deleted a lot of the mean posts, but left posts of value for future readers as there was a lot of good stuff in there. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Looking at Utah Climate Center the low of 6.5 F was the lowest Sept low at Peter Sinks so far during the era of permanent recording instrumentation at the site (2010-present). July and Aug both saw teens this year, the first summer since 2010 when both months recorded a low < 20F. Can we eclipse the -51 which is the current record low since 2010 this winter? Fingers crossed.

The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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  • 2 weeks later...
It led to an interesting discussion. In the absence of actual observations on Rainier the only real data to look at is proxy data from soundings...but IMO it's inconclusive which location has a higher mean wind speed with the limited data available.

 

 

Hopefully, this won't spur another debate, but if anyone is interested I did some more analyzing of the data on Mt Rainier as compared to the University of Washington data that I have posted in the link below:

 

http://www.summitpost.org/interesting-weather-statistics-for-us-mountain-summits/171585#chapter_5

 

Camp Muir on Mount Rainier does have a weather station, at 10,110 feet which is operated by the Northwest Avalanche Center:

 

https://www.nwac.us/weatherdata/campmuir/now/

 

Averages for Camp Muir are reported, but unfortunately, although averages are given, the period of record is not.   Also, January 12-24 seem to have some weird readings (if those readings are eliminated the January average is actually 14.3F for Camp Muir and -0.3F from the summit.   I did not adjust the data).

 

Here is what I came up with:

 

http://images.summitpost.org/original/983447.JPG

 

Yellow are the actual values for the Camp Muir Weather Station.  Green are the interpolated values that were interpolated from Camp Muir to the summit of Mount Rainier.   Blue is the data obtained from the University of Washington study.

 

To interpolate the green values for temperature, I took the weather stations around Mount Rainier and calculated the average temperature change between them for every thousand feet of altitude change (the Longmire station was eliminated due to its location in the valley bottom which is subject to radiative cooling).    I applied that calculated figure (14.6F) for the elevation change between Camp Muir and the summit of Mount Rainier.

 

I compared those values with the data from the University study.  The average annual temperature difference between the two was only 0.2F, which is insignificant.  Of note, the interpolated winter and spring averages were a little cooler and the summer and fall interpolated values were a bit higher than the University measured values, but this seems to make sense since windy mountain top locations usually experience a bit less seasonal variation than other locations.

 

The interpolated wind values are only a ball park figure and shouldn't be considered measured values.   To get them, I simply tracked the forecasted wind speeds over the past few weeks to come up with a valued difference.  

 

https://www.atmos.washington.edu/data/rainier_report.html

 

Over the past few weeks, forecasted wind speeds have been 1.25 to 2.25 times greater on the summit of Rainier vs. Camp Muir.  I came up with an average of 1.77 forecasted difference and applied that figure to the average measured wind speeds at Camp Muir.   Obviously a lot more data is needed and my estimation wasn't that scientific.  The interpolation is just wild speculation based on a short time period and forecast and by no means should be considered accurate. 

 

I don't claim the number is accurate, but it was interesting.   I plan on tracking the difference in forecasted wind speeds over the space of the next few years.    

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Hopefully, this won't spur another debate, but if anyone is interested I did some more analyzing of the data on Mt Rainier as compared to the University of Washington data that I have posted in the link below:

 

http://www.summitpost.org/interesting-weather-statistics-for-us-mountain-summits/171585#chapter_5

 

Camp Muir on Mount Rainier does have a weather station, at 10,110 feet which is operated by the Northwest Avalanche Center:

 

https://www.nwac.us/weatherdata/campmuir/now/

 

Averages for Camp Muir are reported, but unfortunately, although averages are given, the period of record is not.   Also, January 12-24 seem to have some weird readings (if those readings are eliminated the January average is actually 14.3F for Camp Muir and -0.3F from the summit.   I did not adjust the data).

 

Here is what I came up with:

 

 

Yellow are the actual values for the Camp Muir Weather Station.  Green are the interpolated values that were interpolated from Camp Muir to the summit of Mount Rainier.   Blue is the data obtained from the University of Washington study.

 

To interpolate the green values for temperature, I took the weather stations around Mount Rainier and calculated the average temperature change between them for every thousand feet of altitude change (the Longmire station was eliminated due to its location in the valley bottom which is subject to radiative cooling).    I applied that calculated figure (14.6F) for the elevation change between Camp Muir and the summit of Mount Rainier.

 

I compared those values with the data from the University study.  The average annual temperature difference between the two was only 0.2F, which is insignificant.  Of note, the interpolated winter and spring averages were a little cooler and the summer and fall interpolated values were a bit higher than the University measured values, but this seems to make sense since windy mountain top locations usually experience a bit less seasonal variation than other locations.

 

The interpolated wind values are only a ball park figure and shouldn't be considered measured values.   To get them, I simply tracked the forecasted wind speeds over the past few weeks to come up with a valued difference.  

 

https://www.atmos.washington.edu/data/rainier_report.html

 

Over the past few weeks, forecasted wind speeds have been 1.25 to 2.25 times greater on the summit of Rainier vs. Camp Muir.  I came up with an average of 1.77 forecasted difference and applied that figure to the average measured wind speeds at Camp Muir.   Obviously a lot more data is needed and my estimation wasn't that scientific.  The interpolation is just wild speculation based on a short time period and forecast and by no means should be considered accurate. 

 

I don't claim the number is accurate, but it was interesting.   I plan on tracking the difference in forecasted wind speeds over the space of the next few years.    

Impressive work! I think another interesting treatment might be had by taking UIL and SLE sounding data for 850, 700 and 500 mb and computing the mean lapse rate. I think the summit will largely mirror free-air temp at that altitude during the day (snow/ice cover albedo doesn't allow for much surface heating and surface area is rather small at 14,000+ ft). Compare those values to the ones predicted here and see if they compare favorably. If so, I would venture to say you have a pretty robust modeling of summit averages.

 

Interestingly the summit wind speeds extrapolated here are suggestive of very similar mean speed to Mt Washington. While not conclusive it gives me confidence in applying a reasonable educated guess that the two are fairly similar in terms of mean wind speed.

 

What do you make of the subtle local maxima of wind speed during July/Aug? When looking at 850/700/500 mb wind speeds from regional soundings (UIL/SLE) there's a minimum in wind speed during those months coincident with the seasonal retreat/weakening of the polar jet.

 

A couple further points:

 

* I would expect summit temps to have an annual minimum in Feb/March as both 700 and 500 mb temps are at their coldest during the Feb 15-March 15 timeframe, on average. However perhaps there's enough increase in sunlight hours during this time that the summit itself is a bit warmer than in Dec/Jan.

* Keep in mind the region has had a string of fairly mild weather in most Januaries over the last couple decades...there's been discussions ad nauseam on here as to why and whether we will break out of the cycle. It is pronounced enough that most western WA stations, including the Cascades, now have their coldest mean temp in Dec when considering 1981-2010 normals.

The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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Since this came up, I've started tracking and averaging NOAA's summit wind forecasts for Mt. Rainier, as well as the sounding data and derived reanalyses at 15kft in the general vicinity. Hopefully this'll make things clearer for me. I don't have nearly enough data yet to reach a hypothetical conclusion on which location is windier, and it might be difficult to do that even with several months of data.

 

My hunch is that Mt. Washington probably scores higher in *maximum* wind speeds, at least based on what I've seen so far. Even in a relatively benign pattern, there've been multiple days with winds (both forecasted and observed) in excess of 100mph at the Mt. Washington observatory.

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Does anyone have data for extreme minimums on the summit of Mount Rainier?  I was able to find data online that states it is the coldest summit in the lower 48.  No real surprise there.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Does anyone have data for extreme minimums on the summit of Mount Rainier? 

 

 

During the time the weather station was up there the minimum was -36F.   On average Rainier is the coldest place in the lower 48, but it doesn't have have the extremes that other places have.    It's just consistently cold.  

 

No lower 48 mountain top that has ever had weather data available has dropped below -50F (even if they did have weather stations on every mountain top, they probably wouldn't report temperatures lower than that).    Mt Washington has a generally accepted low of -47F, but there was an old -50F reading recorded there as well (I don't know why that reading isn't generally accepted as the official low).   That's about as cold as it gets on a mountain top in the lower 48.

 

High mountain tops are consistently cold places, but they just don't have the extremes that the valley bottoms do, unless you get really high.    In Colorado, for example, there are weather stations on two mountains above 14,000 feet.   Colorado has a few places that have recorded temperatures of -60F or lower in the valley bottoms.   On Mount Evans (weather station elevation 14,148 feet) the temperature hasn't recorded any temperatures below -40F and at the Pikes Peak station (elevation 14,110 feet), the temperature hasn't dropped below -39F.    Maybell, at an elevation of 5920 feet, which is more than 8000 feet lower than those summits has recorded temperatures down to -61F, even though on average it's a much warmer place.

 

Of course if you get high enough, you can find exceptions to the rule.    On Denali, for example, minimum gauge thermometers have plunged to verified temperatures of -95F and -100F.  Denali is at more than 20,000 feet in interior Alaska though.  

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  • 1 month later...

All-time record lows at Peter Sinks (since 1985), temperatures recorded at "Peter Sink" (north sink) unless otherwise noted:

 

Jan: -66 on 1/31/1985

Feb: -69 on 2/1/1985

Mar: -52 in 2002 (early month) at Middle Sink

Apr: -41 on 4/1/2008 at Middle Sink

May: -19 in 1983

Jun: 3 in 2001

Jul: 15 in 1984

Aug: 7 in 2005

Sep: -10 in 2000 (late Sept 2000 cold wave)

Oct: -32 in 2002 (probably Oct 31st)

Nov: -47 in 2003 at Middle Sink

Dec: -57 on 12/23/1990

 

 

in researching the Utah records, I did find a minor error in the above.   The -57 in December 1990 was actually recorded at Middle Sink, rather than Peter Sinks.  

 

Also, some sources (such as Chris Burt) say that there was a 6 recorded on 8/31/2005?  

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  • 2 months later...
Can we eclipse the -51 which is the current record low since 2010 this winter? Fingers crossed. 

 

 

I was curious about the recent cold snap and checked the weather station:

 

https://climate.usurf.usu.edu/PeterSinks/

 

According to the weather station data, Peter Sinks was -53.1F yesterday and at least down to -53.5F this morning.

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Very impressive cold there the last two days.

 

 

Also impressive was the recovery from the cold today.   Peter Sinks has a low of -42 and a high of +23.    This included a temperature rise of almost 50 degrees in two hours.

 

http://images.summitpost.org/original/991451.JPG

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  • 2 months later...

Ice fog in the bottom of Middle Sink on Jan 4, 2009 at 8 am. The temperature was -53F.

 

http://i.imgur.com/81kDq4o.jpg

 

http://photo.accuweather.com/photogallery/2009/1/1024/4eb0b41b1.jpg

 

http://photo.accuweather.com/photogallery/2009/1/1024/ea954c5f4.jpg

Where can I get those mittens and thermometers?

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  • 2 months later...
  • 2 years later...

-34.7 this morning stands as the coldest October temperature ever recorded in Utah. It also beats the -33 at Soda Butte, WY in Oct 1917 for the coldest temp recorded in the lower 48 in October.

It is quite likely Peter Sinks flirts with or drops below -40 this week, the coldest period likely either Tuesday or Wednesday morning (Wednesday favored).

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Too bad Peter Sinks wasn't around for cold waves like Oct 1971. Could have hit -40 then. 

Well we have some data for Logan in Oct 1971

 

Logan Radio (https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?ut5182) fell to 6 on the 30th

Logan USU Exp Stn (https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?ut5190) fell to 8 on the 30th

 

Both stations may be a hair warmer than the current Cache County Airport site however. Still think given the 700 mb temps will be considerably colder than 1971 over N Utah that the odds favor colder temps than 1971.

 

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I went through and calculated the monthly and annual mean extremes (the average warmest high and coldest low in a typical month/year).

Annual: 83/-47 (on average warmest day is 83 and coldest night is -47)
Jan: 41/-40
Feb: 41/-35
Mar: 49/-31
Apr: 58/-16
May: 65/-1
Jun: 78/18
Jul: 82/23
Aug: 81/20
Sep: 76/12
Oct: 65/-6
Nov: 51/-26
Dec: 43/-43

Period: Jan 2010-Oct 2019

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Both stations may be a hair warmer than the current Cache County Airport site however. Still think given the 700 mb temps will be considerably colder than 1971 over N Utah that the odds favor colder temps than 1971.

 

 

It looks like it, even in Salt Lake City.

 

The 1971 Cold snap did produce some monthly record lows in Northern Utah, but it was more impressive in Central and Southern Utah.    Some of those readings are lower than any recorded in November.    

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It's noteworthy that Rawlins, WY fell to -16 this morning, likely the coldest ASOS temp in October in years.

 

The old record was -7 on 10/31/1972.

 

Interestingly, 1969, 1970, 1971, and 1972 all produced several all time October lows throughout much of the West.

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List of largest diurnal ranges at Peter Sinks (2010-2019):
 

74 degrees (28/-46) on 2/22/2010

73 degrees (39/-34) on 3/5/2013

72 degrees (41/-31) on 12/3/2017

70 degrees (35/-35) on 3/20/2010

68 degrees (47/-21) on 12/2/2017

68 degrees (25/-43) on 12/5/2016

68 degrees (47/-21) on 10/28/2010

67 degrees (36/-31) on 2/24/2015

67 degrees (41/-26) on 11/23/2015

67 degrees (18/-49) on 2/2/2011

66 degrees (24/-42) on 12/7/2017

66 degrees (42/-24) on 12/4/2017

66 degrees (24/-42) on 12/8/2016

66 degrees (35/-31) on 3/12/2014

65 degrees (34/-31) on 3/7/2018

65 degrees (37/-28) on 2/13/2017

65 degrees (36/-29) on 3/19/2016

65 degrees (28/-27) on 11/22/2015
65 degrees (37/-28) on 2/8/2010

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