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With the Summer season almost upon us, it will certainly feel like it for a lot of us on here after most of us near the GL's/MW suffer a rather chilly holiday weekend.  As we near the beginning of met Summer early next week...who will see Heat??  Who could see severe storms??  This is going to be an interesting month of weather as I see a battle brewing across the central CONUS this month.  The North American 500mb pattern will feature a strong trough parked across W/NW Canada this month that should create a SW Flow pattern, whereby, we see troughs try to track out of the N Rockies into the Upper MW.  I could see this type of pattern delivering severe wx up north once we get into the Week of the 6th.

@FAR_Weather, get ready to see a few days of Heat up your way...

00z Euro...1st 100F for our Sub next weekend??

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1st full week of June looks nice and warm for the northern half of our Sub...

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Where could we go from here??  For the northern half of our Sub, I strongly foresee a transient pattern of warmth and cool periods but overall AN temps.  It should be getting active post 7th throughout the month.  If your from say from KS/IA on south, it's safe to say you ain't going to see any heat waves.  Temps appear to remain near normal or much BN the farther south you are and plenty of moisture.  Nature doesn't seem to want to turn off the faucet!  GL's region shall see more balance this month from oscillating warm/cold fronts due to systems tracking out of the Rockies.

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I picked these strawberries 🍓 earlier this morning. This is the second picking and they’re just starting. So delicious with strawberry shortcake which I had a few times now! They need good moisture th

Glad to have been wrong. First legitimate thunderstorm of the season and it's a doozy. Haven't reached the core yet.

Meanwhile, Texas is above normal rain.  A heavy rain this morning.  Temps are below normal and everything generally soggy.  We should be 90*-92* for a high. I recall Junes like this in the l

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This Southwesterly flow can seriously go die in a hole.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 1 (Last: 6/7)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1 (Last: 6/7)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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All the models are pointing towards a legit early June Heat Wave for the GL's region starting next weekend.  A string of 90's and rise in humidity levels will make it feel like the "Summer Sizzle".  A more typical summer pattern develops across the heartland of the nation during the week of the 6th.  Active pattern sets up for our northern members as a SW flow pattern aloft combined with storms ejecting out of the Rockies should ignite some storms.

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I think there will be some massive changes come mid June as the coldest part of the LRC cycles through.  The 500mb pattern over North America is going to amplify I believe and we could be seeing some chilly air yet again invade a large part of our Sub.  SOI is showing a trend of tanking, the blocking pattern in the Arctic regions looks to lock come Week 2 along with a -EPO/-WPO and a relaxation of the -PNA all point towards a negative heights across the central CONUS.

One of the LR tools in my back pocket is to check up on whats going on in the Strat....the reversal in the warm anomalies across the eastern CONUS and C.A. suggest to me to look for a developing trough come mid June.  Let's see how this all plays out.

Northern Hemisphere 50 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animationn

 

 

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Welcome to Met Summer!  What a great start to the day as the sun has risen and we have clear skies and calm winds.  I ventured out on my deck and took in a deep breath and it had that crisp smell in the air you get in late summer...ahhh, don't you just appreciate the simple things in life???

The "Heat is On"...nature is going to turn on the blast furnace for the Upper MW and eventually into the MW/GL's.  The early June Heat I had imagined is going full blown.  After a cold and windy 1st half of MDW, this coming weekend is going to be a stark difference.  I'm sure the beaches and city will be buzzing.  Anglers and beach goers will be busy!  The good thing is, this warm pattern will be accompanied by relatively tolerable humidity levels around here through the weekend.  The following week is when it'll feel more tropical as DP's surge north into the upper 60's/low 70's and there may be a "Ring of Fire" pattern that fires up.  Some of the models are starting to see storm clusters fire up around the 9th/10th up and over a Heat Dome in the SW which eventually will build west.  IMO, the GEFS/GEPS are quicker to this idea and the EPS is prob slower to this evolution.  

 

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Welcome meteorological summer. Well it is now June and we are now at the start of the summer season.  This past May was one of many ups and downs. The mean for the month at Grand Rapids was 57.5 a departure of -1.7. The high of 86 was reached on 4 days and the low for the month was 30 on the 1st There were 7 days with highs of 80 or better and 6 nights with lows in the 60’s but there were 13 nights that got down into the 30’s with frost as late as the morning of the 30th  For the month there were 9 days with a mean average of more than 10° below average and 9 days with a mean of more that 10° above average. In total there were 12 days with a mean of above average and 19 days with a mean of below average. There was just 1.92” of rain fall and even with all the temperature up and downs there was only one reported thunder event.

Here is the updated CPC long range guess for June 2021

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

As always take all long range guesses with a grain of salt.

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Yeesh, the Torch is on for the Upper MW this Saturday...I don't recall a summer starting off this Hot for Fargo this early in the season.  This has to be on top of the list of the warmest starts to June.

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Another marvelous start to the day with clear skies, calm winds and a beautiful sunrise.  There is a crisp feeling in the air with a temp of 48F...gotta enjoy these cooler nights before the heat invades late week.  Nothing but upper 80's and low 90's in the extended.

On a side note, I like what I'm seeing as the pattern progresses into the later parts of June.  The official start to the Monsoon season in Arizona starts June 15th but typically doesn't get its act together until July.  This year, however, it appears that moisture will begin to slowly make its way up into the state by mid month.  The CFSv2 has been rock steady showing AN precip in July but has since added June to the mix.  In fact, there are storms in the forecast for the mountains throughout this week.  Good signs for the desert SW.

 

 

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Here we are now into June and so far this year there has only been 4 reports of thunder here at Grand Rapids. That was 3 in April and 1 in May. A "thunderstorm" is any time one flash of lightning or one clap of thunder is reported at the official reporting station.  That is very few reports so far this year. 

At this time it is sunny and 66 here.

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

Here we are now into June and so far this year there has only been 4 reports of thunder here at Grand Rapids. That was 3 in April and 1 in May. A "thunderstorm" is any time one flash of lightning or one clap of thunder is reported at the official reporting station.  That is very few reports so far this year. 

At this time it is sunny and 66 here.

Iirc, ORD had the 1st reported thunderstorm of the Spring during last weeks rainfall.  That’s pretty sad.

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I picked these strawberries 🍓 earlier this morning. This is the second picking and they’re just starting. So delicious with strawberry shortcake which I had a few times now! They need good moisture this time of the year which they still have, but more is needed by next week.

 

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Today was certainly nice at times, but the sun was pretty hot and there was very little wind.  A breeze would help a lot.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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5 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Today was certainly nice at times, but the sun was pretty hot and there was very little wind.  A breeze would help a lot.

Yes I don’t mind a little wind, but I like calm evenings like we just had, unless it’s muggy. It was a perfect evening!

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The JMA weeklies that came in today highlight the blow torch for our northern half of the Sub through about the 15th before the ridge sorta begins to retrograde west by the middle of the month.  You can see the model begin splitting up the Upper MW/GL's ridge by Week 2.

Week 2...

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Temp/Precip pattern...

 

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Tropical Trouble coming out of the Caribbean/GOM???  SW Monsoon kicking into a slow process but surely will be welcomed.

Y202106.D0212_gl0.png

 

Week 3-4...

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Temp/Precip pattern...

Y202106.D0212_gl2.png

 

Wetter pattern for the Sub...

Y202106.D0212_gl0.png

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I'm liking the trend in the models to delay the arrival of deeper humidity levels till early the following week.  The 00z Euro doesn't have DP's go into the upper 60's till Tue/Wed period when we see the arrival of that cut-off low down deep into TX that will slowly migrate northward.  Looks like precip chances are on the rise for the majority of the MW and GL's by the middle of next week.  I'm ready for this burst of Summer Heat!

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The overnight low here at my house was 53. The official overnight low at GRR was 51. At this time it is sunny and 60 here. So far here in my area the grass is still rather green but in driving around town there are now spots were there is a lot of brown showing up. While the forecasted highs from Saturday to next Wednesday are well above average (the average is 77 to 78) the record highs in the time are in the mid to upper 90's even then we could see some top ten highs reached

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For the YTD this year rain fall total at Grand Rapids is 8.55" in 1988 at the start of June it was 9.83.June 1988 there was only 0.25" in the whole month of June. In June of 1988 while there were 10 days of 90 or better the overnight lows were not too bad as 10 nights got down into the 40's and only 6 nights were in the 60 and none were in the 70's. Now on the dry side This spring was dryer than both 1930 and 1988. This spring GR only had 5.34" of rain fall that is less than 1930 with 5.66" and 1988 with 6.30" 1930 is the driest year at Grand Rapids. 1988 had a lot of rain in the fall that year. The summer of 1930 had 20 days of 90+ but the next year was warmer  with 34 days of 90+

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It's gonna feel tropical next week if the Euro is right...low 70 DP's all across our Sub from Tue-Sat!  I like the consistent runs of showing a lot of moisture around here for a few days in a row.  This is a pattern which I would take in a heart beat as temps lower into the 70's/80's next week along with tropical down pours???

 

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I’m back in Chicago for awhile and oof, the drought is depressing. I can’t believe the lack of severe weather here, let alone precipitation in general! Hope you’re right Tom. June is usually the best month in Chicago, hopefully we can get something :)

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Happy Friday!  #TGIF...this is the 1st morning where it really feels like a late summer morning...currently at 73F/51F underneath cloudy skies.  Heading up into the low 90's today through the weekend.  Bring on the torch.

 

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In other news, I'm thrilled to hear that Chicago and the entire state of Illinois will be FULLY OPEN next Friday!  Finally...what a relief it will be to be able to walk into businesses with full capacity and no mask mandates.  What do the models show in terms of the weather during this period???  Well, the EPS backed off the wetter look and is sorta suppressing things south some which also keeps temps a bit warmer.  The GFS/GEFS is still maintaining a bullish look on the cooler trend.  Based on the LRC, teleconnections and so forth, I'm going to say the western Sub will remain warmer/drier than normal while the eastern Sub begins to cool to more seasonal levels.  Some folks may get lucky and cash in on clusters forming out of the NW and formulate "Ridge Riders" later next week.  Full blown Summer pattern in the works...

 

 

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I woke up and looked out the window and wow the road and driveway were wet. I went out and looked at the rain gauge and found out that a whopping 0.01" of rain had fallen. The overnight low here at my house was 62 and at this time with some sun and clouds it is now 65 here. The bottom line is that the dry conditions continue. We the dry conditions low humidity and high sun angle I would look for temperatures to out perform over the week end.

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It is not looking good at all for rain across our region this month.  Models are dreadful.  The Euro had been teasing that the Texas upper low would lift up here and produce some storms mid next week, but it has backed away from that and now keeps it south like other models.  Drought conditions will definitely be expanding.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Very impressive temps this afternoon across the upper midwest. International Falls MN has hit 98 so far, and Fargo Sky Harbor has reported 101. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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1 hour ago, snowstorm83 said:

Very impressive temps this afternoon across the upper midwest. International Falls MN has hit 98 so far, and Fargo Sky Harbor has reported 101. 

Yup, first time it's hit 100 here since the infamous 2012 summer. This year looks VERY similar analog-wise here. Still 100 here in West Fargo.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 1 (Last: 6/7)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1 (Last: 6/7)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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4 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

It is not looking good at all for rain across our region this month.  Models are dreadful.  The Euro had been teasing that the Texas upper low would lift up here and produce some storms mid next week, but it has backed away from that and now keeps it south like other models.  Drought conditions will definitely be expanding.

There were long dry spells here the previous two summers and seems like the third one is beginning after a boring spring! Ugh 😩 I’m already watering the garden, etc. One benefit is the grass growth rate should decrease.

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Getting a ten minute spell of moderate rain. Normally this would be negligible, but this is the hardest I have seen it rain this year so far and it's our first measurable precip in about a month.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 1 (Last: 6/7)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1 (Last: 6/7)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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It's still 79F at MSP...umm, ya....it's frying up north.  Those are temps you typically see in the early morning hours at Sky Harbor Airport in Phoenix!

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26 minutes ago, Tom said:

It's still 79F at MSP...umm, ya....it's frying up north.  Those are temps you typically see in the early morning hours at Sky Harbor Airport in Phoenix!

74F still at Duluth also. I don't mind this heat missing to the N one bit. Still haven't had a 90F day yet at DSM. An odd start to the early summer....

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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What is worse @FAR_Weather....a Hot Summer or Warm Winter???  The 00z EPS not to friendly for folks up north as the Heat Dome has some legs but sorta shifts W/NW while the east/south Sub cools relative to where we are now.

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On a positive note, the 00z Euro op has come back north with precip over the course of next week and is late to the party, but could be onto the idea of a "Ring of Fire" pattern starting up Wed/Thu out in the Plains.  The GFS/ICON picked up on this early on.

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Had my HVAC guy come by yesterday to fill up some freon using the older R22.  Thankfully, he scooped up an entire pallet full of them for such a cheap price and took care of me on the price.  Meanwhile, ORD hit 91F yesterday and the forecast shows 90's through the weekend which would officially make it the 1st legit "Heat Wave" of 2020 (3 straight days of 90F+).

 

 

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19 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

74F still at Duluth also. I don't mind this heat missing to the N one bit. Still haven't had a 90F day yet at DSM. An odd start to the early summer....

This pattern is certainly and oddity as I can't recall seeing widespread BN temps in the deep south and a powerhouse Ridge to the north.  TX/OK appear to me that they will not be seeing much of a traditional summer down there.  I mean, for example, Dallas has rain in the forecast every day this weekend into next week with temps in the low/mid 80's when low 90's are normal.  My cousin is loving the cooler pattern but the rainfall is getting outta hand.  Its very soupy and soggy which isn't good for agriculture.

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The overnight low both here and at the airport was a mild 67. While very warm yesterday with the wind it was not all that bad outside at all. I did not have to turn on the air until very late yesterday afternoon.  At this time it is clear and 69 here.  So far most of the grass in my area is still rather green not sure how long that will last.

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1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

74F still at Duluth also. I don't mind this heat missing to the N one bit. Still haven't had a 90F day yet at DSM. An odd start to the early summer....

For me to the new the Denver like dew points allowed it to cool enough by midnight I could turn ac off.

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I'm going to be putting some water on the garden this morning.  There are chances of rain each day next week but I wouldn't be surprised if I received less than a quarter of an inch over the course of the week as the rain looks to be scattered and mostly to my south and east. It's going to be muggy as dew point will reach 70.

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39 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I'm going to be putting some water on the garden this morning.  There are chances of rain each day next week but I wouldn't be surprised if I received less than a quarter of an inch over the course of the week as the rain looks to be scattered and mostly to my south and east. It's going to be muggy as dew point will reach 70.

I haven’t turned on my underground sprinklers yet, which is as late as I can ever remember. Probably will need to by early next week. Nothing is dry, but this pattern may start stressing things. 

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The dewpoint has finally jumped up to the next level.  Yesterday it was in the upper 40s.  This morning it's in the mid 60s.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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32 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The dewpoint has finally jumped up to the next level.  Yesterday it was in the upper 40s.  This morning it's in the mid 60s.

During my morning walk, the DP was in the upper 40’s and a comfy SW breeze.  I just stepped out and it’s noticeably more humid (62F).  Crazy how it blew in so fast.

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6 hours ago, Tom said:

What is worse @FAR_Weather....a Hot Summer or Warm Winter???  The 00z EPS not to friendly for folks up north as the Heat Dome has some legs but sorta shifts W/NW while the east/south Sub cools relative to where we are now.

I actually don't mind the heat itself, I work nights inside a hospital so not like it affects me. I do, however, mind the electric bills that are half as much as my rent.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 1 (Last: 6/7)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1 (Last: 6/7)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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