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June Observations and Discussion


Tom

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26 minutes ago, Tom said:

It's still 79F at MSP...umm, ya....it's frying up north.  Those are temps you typically see in the early morning hours at Sky Harbor Airport in Phoenix!

74F still at Duluth also. I don't mind this heat missing to the N one bit. Still haven't had a 90F day yet at DSM. An odd start to the early summer....

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What is worse @FAR_Weather....a Hot Summer or Warm Winter???  The 00z EPS not to friendly for folks up north as the Heat Dome has some legs but sorta shifts W/NW while the east/south Sub cools relative to where we are now.

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On a positive note, the 00z Euro op has come back north with precip over the course of next week and is late to the party, but could be onto the idea of a "Ring of Fire" pattern starting up Wed/Thu out in the Plains.  The GFS/ICON picked up on this early on.

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Had my HVAC guy come by yesterday to fill up some freon using the older R22.  Thankfully, he scooped up an entire pallet full of them for such a cheap price and took care of me on the price.  Meanwhile, ORD hit 91F yesterday and the forecast shows 90's through the weekend which would officially make it the 1st legit "Heat Wave" of 2020 (3 straight days of 90F+).

 

 

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19 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

74F still at Duluth also. I don't mind this heat missing to the N one bit. Still haven't had a 90F day yet at DSM. An odd start to the early summer....

This pattern is certainly and oddity as I can't recall seeing widespread BN temps in the deep south and a powerhouse Ridge to the north.  TX/OK appear to me that they will not be seeing much of a traditional summer down there.  I mean, for example, Dallas has rain in the forecast every day this weekend into next week with temps in the low/mid 80's when low 90's are normal.  My cousin is loving the cooler pattern but the rainfall is getting outta hand.  Its very soupy and soggy which isn't good for agriculture.

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The overnight low both here and at the airport was a mild 67. While very warm yesterday with the wind it was not all that bad outside at all. I did not have to turn on the air until very late yesterday afternoon.  At this time it is clear and 69 here.  So far most of the grass in my area is still rather green not sure how long that will last.

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I'm going to be putting some water on the garden this morning.  There are chances of rain each day next week but I wouldn't be surprised if I received less than a quarter of an inch over the course of the week as the rain looks to be scattered and mostly to my south and east. It's going to be muggy as dew point will reach 70.

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39 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I'm going to be putting some water on the garden this morning.  There are chances of rain each day next week but I wouldn't be surprised if I received less than a quarter of an inch over the course of the week as the rain looks to be scattered and mostly to my south and east. It's going to be muggy as dew point will reach 70.

I haven’t turned on my underground sprinklers yet, which is as late as I can ever remember. Probably will need to by early next week. Nothing is dry, but this pattern may start stressing things. 

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The dewpoint has finally jumped up to the next level.  Yesterday it was in the upper 40s.  This morning it's in the mid 60s.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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32 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The dewpoint has finally jumped up to the next level.  Yesterday it was in the upper 40s.  This morning it's in the mid 60s.

During my morning walk, the DP was in the upper 40’s and a comfy SW breeze.  I just stepped out and it’s noticeably more humid (62F).  Crazy how it blew in so fast.

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6 hours ago, Tom said:

What is worse @FAR_Weather....a Hot Summer or Warm Winter???  The 00z EPS not to friendly for folks up north as the Heat Dome has some legs but sorta shifts W/NW while the east/south Sub cools relative to where we are now.

I actually don't mind the heat itself, I work nights inside a hospital so not like it affects me. I do, however, mind the electric bills that are half as much as my rent.

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8 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

What’s funny is we started June last year having the first 9 days above 90 degrees here. The grids all upped the temperatures for this coming week and every day is above 90 so we might do it again 

June has been as hot as July and August the past few years. The difference is it tends to be a more "dry" heat compared to later in the year. It's really not that bad other than a few hours in the afternoon. 

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2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Waking up to a balmy morning here today with a current temp of 73F along with slight SW breeze.  Love these type of summer mornings.  DP's will begin climbing farther today into the mid/upper 60's.  Pool day??? 

The 00z EPS is encouraging for the Lower Lakes region through Saturday...

 

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While GR has had a couple of very warm days with highs in the upper 80's with the wind and lower humidity it has not been all that bad and most felt nice out. And while the air has been on it has not been running all that much yet. We took a trip to the beach at Muskegon yesterday and at the beach area the temperature was just 67 between 2 and 5 when we were at the beach area. About 3 miles inland it was in the mid 70's and at 5 miles it was in the low then mid 80's by the time we got to Coopersville it was up to 87. 
The overnight low here was a warm 68 it looks like the official low at GRR will be 70. At this time it is clear and 71 here the winds are calm at this time.

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48 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I’m sure some are already seeing drought problems. 

There are already water restrictions in some of the smaller towns here. It's gonna be bad if this pattern continues a couple more weeks.

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It looks like today will put a hole in the anticipated 90+ streak. Though this was only supposed to be day 3 and 90s keep getting added all the way through the forseeable future. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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GFS and Euro both look rather wet next week. GFS brings more convection, while Euro advertises an SLP rolling through and bringing a decent spell of moderate rain here. I will take either at this point, just anything to put a dent in this stupid drought.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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ORD officially had a high of 89F yesterday which puts a dent into an official Heat Wave this season.  Close, but no cigar.  Looking forward to seeing pop up storms today and throughout the week.  It's one of those patterns where its hit or miss.  Hoping to cash in on a couple tropical downpours.

It's another warm and muggy morning today (73F/68F)...you can def feel the humidity today as it is creeping up higher.  Nothing but 80's in the extended and the models are seeing relief from the Heat/Humidity just past this weekend for the eastern Sub.

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00z EPS/GEFS are starting to get on the same page in the extended....remarkably very similar TBH...

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_8.png

 

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This pattern aligns quite well with the LRC and the LR tool of the organization up in the Strat...how long will this cooler period last?  My guess is about 7-10 days before the next burst of HEAT comes right back.  From what I'm seeing in the 50mb animation below, this trough will be transient, but welcomed...and then we return towards a late month surge of warmth/humidity.  The EC ridge is going to POP and I'm anticipating a 4th of July heat wave for the majority of our central/eastern Sub.  I think the Upper MW will cool off late month and turn more active.  Let's hope this happens for the sake of the drought and sanity for @FAR_Weatherand @Beltrami Island.

 

Northern Hemisphere 50 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

 

 

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The overnight low both here at my house and at the airport was a warm 73. The DP is up this morning so it is a little more humid then the past few days. While it has been warm this past weekend with the lower humidity and the breeze it has not felt all that bad. I worked on the years yesterday and it was not bad at all. If it stays dry I am sure it will soon change but for how dry and sunny it has been the grass (even in areas that do now water the grass) is that the grass is still rather green. I remember past dry times when the grass was brown everywhere. At this time it is cloudy and 76 here I was just outside and to me it still feel rather nice out.

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

I have a very warm and muggy week ahead with slight chances of storms.  H.I. values could reach 100 by Wednesday.

Yep, looks like a lazy summertime pattern this week around these parts. Severe weather season is winding down and it has been very quiet around here for the most part as we move into summer. It's nice to have mostly sunny days again even with the warmth and humidity.

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I'm... not impressed by the severe potential. DPs are trash and CAPE is marginal. Good critical angle. Looks like the biggest threat will be large hail followed by maybe a weak tornado. Slight risk looks like it was the way to go here.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Meanwhile, Texas is above normal rain.  A heavy rain this morning.  Temps are below normal and everything generally soggy. 

We should be 90*-92* for a high.

I recall Junes like this in the late 70's, early 90's, early 2000's.  But this has been different.  More cloud cover, lower temps, higher humidity. 

Some days felt like March, not June.  While I sense a pattern, I also sense a potential entry into the GSM cycle.  If we get a repeat next year my eyebrows will begin to raise.

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4 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

I'm... not impressed by the severe potential. DPs are trash and CAPE is marginal. Good critical angle. Looks like the biggest threat will be large hail followed by maybe a weak tornado. Slight risk looks like it was the way to go here.

Glad to have been wrong. First legitimate thunderstorm of the season and it's a doozy. Haven't reached the core yet.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Yet another warm and soupy morning (71F/68F) with a lot of moisture in the air.  Feels like we have fast forwarded into late July for the most part and for the majority of the eastern CONUS for that matter.  ORD recorded a trace of precip yesterday and my local wx reporting station only had about 0.08".  Just enough to wet the pavement and grass.  I'm hopeful we'll some more storm actions up north but it ain't looking good.  What is looking good, however, is the cool down the Euro is advertising for next week.  Highs in the 70's and low DP's??  Sign me up.

Gosh, the SW is really going to fire up the ridge and literally "Sizzle" in some ridiculous and likely record breaking HEAT!  The Euro has been indicating high temps in the SW deserts later next week to hit 120+F.  In fact, it's showing highs at PHX of 117F, 119F and 120F for next Tue-Thu.  That is stupid Hot.

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