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June Observations and Discussion


Tom

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I've been house sitting up in the northern parts of NE IL in a town called Volo, IL which is in Lake county.  It's a rural town with plenty of open land and a peaceful place to live.  I enjoy coming out here and being away from the busier urban areas of the suburbs and the annoying traffic.  Anyway, I noticed on my drive yesterday how brown the grass is getting up here and the crop which has grown certainly needs a healthy "drink" from nature.  There is some hope that Saturday will deliver and I'm hopeful the "rain God's" deliver the goods.

What a difference a year makes as Chicago is on one of those not so good streaks...I'm situated right in that Severe Drought in NE IL.

 

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In other news, Chicago is the 1st large metro in the U.S. that is going to be fully open today!  Yay, at least we have that positive thing going for the city.  

 

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23 minutes ago, Tom said:

@FAR_Weather, it's going to get a bit wild in a few up by you....nice looking severe line coming right for ya...

Winds weren't overly impressive, but the rain is definitely appreciated. It was 82 before the MCS moved in.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Quite the differences among the models for mid/late next week where and how much the west coast ridge may poke into the central CONUS.

The 00z Euro op blossoming a rare 600mb ridge over the 4 corners region which will fire up the SW deserts.  I'm sure you'll be hearing the media hype this Heat (as usual).  I've lived through some incredible Heat last year in PHX, but this upcoming Heat Wave has some legs.  There could be a string of days with 115F+ heat next week.  

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The GFS seems to be on an island of its own for the cooler look next week.  Meanwhile, the 00z ICON/EURO bake the central Plains.

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For all you Father's out there, it appears that a much welcomed "cool down" is coming for a lot of us.  IMHO, based on the LR clues and forecasting methods, the mid month trough appears to be heading our way.  I'm leaning more towards the GEFS in the extended that are signaling a cooler and dare I say...wetter pattern??

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No rain to report from my house. The overnight low here was 69 and it looks like the official low at the airport should be 68. At this time it is a warm 73 here with a DP of 68. I know there are some people who do not like this humid weather but working outside at night it is not been bad at all in the shade. Of course if one is in the sun that is a different story. But it looks like there will be a "cool" down next week for a while at that will give people a break. There are some hints that after that break there could be some more above average temperatures and more humid weather to end June and start July. 

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Not one drop here. Forecast was completely wrong. Everything stayed much farther northeast. The only good news is the dew is crashing, now down to 50 and going lower. I saw dews of 30’s not to far west of here. I’ll enjoy the short reprieve as the heat cranks for several weeks and rain chances are minimal at best. Water and A/C usage will increase bills for sure. 

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It looks like Lincoln is about to get smacked by the squall line. I’m in clarinda, Iowa today where it should reach here in the afternoon (probably weaker)

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Lucked out here that’s for sure. Ended up with 1.3” of rain and was a welcome relief! I have a mowing business and I was outside for nine hours yesterday, then had my daughters eight and under softball game that night.  I’m about sick of this heat and yards are in stress. This rain will help them bounce back for a bit. 

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1 hour ago, gabel23 said:

Lucked out here that’s for sure. Ended up with 1.3” of rain and was a welcome relief! I have a mowing business and I was outside for nine hours yesterday, then had my daughters eight and under softball game that night.  I’m about sick of this heat and yards are in stress. This rain will help them bounce back for a bit. 

Congrats. It is not looking good for the extended for any moisture. Yards will start to get stressed and slow down for sure, which is not what you want if you have a lawn service. My brother and I paid for our college by mowing from the age of 10 and up. 

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The main squall line is just missing me to the north and east. Warnings for wind gusts to 80 mph just east of here with a significant weather alert for MBY and areas westward for 50-55 mph winds. All I want is a decent rain to soak in the fertilizer and weed killer I put down this morning...lol.

 

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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3 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

The main squall line is just missing me to the north and east. Warnings for wind gusts to 80 mph just east of here with a significant weather alert for MBY and areas westward for 50-55 mph winds. All I want is a decent rain to soak in the fertilizer and weed killer I put down this morning...lol.

 

Screenshot 2021-06-11 at 14-30-41 Topeka, KS.png

You look like a good bet to get some rain, hopefully you miss out on the 80mph wind.  Lots of fuel down my way if they can make it.

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A few cells popped along an outflow boundary and dropped 0.13" in my yard.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Well...there is redevelopment in the area but I picked up only 0.10" so far which was good for wetting down my fertilizer and weed killer, but I was hoping for a bit more. I didn't notice any real wind to speak of which has been the case pretty much every time this spring. On radar it looks like the line is weakening a bit in places, so hopefully you guys downstream manage some decent rain without anything too severe.

@Jayhawker85@Clinton

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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9 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

I'm in leawood Ks and we just had about 60 mph winds and some pea size hail move through. still pouring at a pretty good clip

update: winds increased to 80 mph and we have quarter size hail coming down. it sounds like im at a Airport listening to jets taking off its hitting my office building so hard

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5th consecutive  90 degree day today. High of 94f. High  dewpoint of 80f!!!! Thats highest dewpoint  of the year.  Yesterday  high temp was 95f.    Fyi theres no corn within  about 1 mile of my davis pro. Woods and  grassy swamp land, creek bottom. What corn is within 2  miles is about 10 to 15 inches high

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Ended up with .55” of rain at my place and no severe weather. Not going to be enough to last the next dry week coming up though. First rain in almost 2 weeks.

Had our first watch of the season and it was a severe tstorm watch covering 8a-11a of all times🙄🙄

I’m free all next week to chase anything and not surprisingly looks like nothing happening again. 

 

 

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I spent the day yesterday at the water park (Barefoot Bay) with my nephews up in Mundelein which is in Lake county.  It was the quintessential summery day that I tend to enjoy.  The location was right underneath the lake breeze boundary that bubbled up storm clouds and produced some nice views up in the sky.  The sun was in and out of the towering cumulonimbus clouds which was a perfect setting.  Today, the models are signalling a repeat performance but with more coverage in NE IL along the lake breeze boundary.  I'm praying we see some downpours.

The battle continues next week with regards to the heat dome poking into the MW.  GFS continues to suggest a cooler look while the Euro baking the Plains/MW.  Someone will cave...who will that be???

 

 

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The overnight low here at my house was 66 the official low at the airport was a little cooler at 63. At this time it is cloudy and 69 here with a Dew point of 63. There was no rain here yesterday but in northeastern lower and to the east there was some storms yesterday with some high winds  and heavy rain

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36 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Only received .10 inches yesterday very disappointing. Some locations received over an inch.  Really hope the GFS is right in the extended. Today I am off to the hay field.

I would have thought you were going to get much more than that the way that line looked. I guess that is .10” more than I got. 😀

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A secondary area of heavier rain moved through MBY after the initial line moved through yesterday which gave me a total of 0.88". The next week looks pretty dry at the moment so I feel very fortunate.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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I hope you don’t mind the music in the background, but this was a vid I took of what was the beginnings of the severe warned storm that eventually tracked S/SE towards ORD from where I was located.  I just had a feeling this storm cluster would deliver the goods.  The sounds of constant rumbles of thunder was a tell tale sign these storms were energized and exploding right overhead.  I wish I had a wider view but it’s all I could manage.

As the saying goes, “when it rains, it pours”….well, it sure as heck did!  ORD picked up a daily record breaking 1.50” of much needed rainfall yesterday.  Boy, it couldn’t have come in a better time.  We desperately needed a soaker.

At this time, the sun is about to rise and the DP is at a comfy 54F and temp in the mid 60’s.  Ahhh, feels great to have the window open!

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GFS for the win???  Both the Euro and GGEM are backing off the extreme Heat migrating farther east and north mid week for the MW/Lakes region.  Gotta say, the GFS/GEFS have been rock steady and doing a much better job predicting the forthcoming pattern.  I'm digging what the model is showing as the ACTIVE part of the LRC is showing up later next week after Father's Day weekend.  BTW, great wx is in the cards for fishing and boating next weekend for a lot of us.  It may actually be a bit to cool/cold for a few of you up in the Northwoods.

The EPS is playing catch up and starting to see the active and cooler pattern which the GEFS have been indicating.  Should be plentiful precip chances for the heartland with a NW Flow pattern aloft ushering in an unusually active jet stream during the middle/later part of June.  An interesting wx pattern is in the cards...the signal is there...

 

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The overnight low here 64 the official low at GRR was 65 no rain fell yesterday. After 12 days the mean for the month at Grand Rapids is now at 73.7 that is a departure of +7.3  if this was to carry to the end of the month it would place this June in 3rd place on the warmest all time list. So far this month the official high has been 90 and the low so far has been 46. Last year the mean for June was 69.6 the high for the month was 93 and the low was 42. At this time it is clear and 77 here at my house.

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Guess most models are suddenly pulling the heat out of the heartland late month. Thinking should see it try to roar back once, but really that should be it. Really thought a major stable ridge would be hard to get rid of, but it has no staying power.

Like Tom said, interesting stuff. 

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TS warnings up for east coast. Their hurricane season is getting started. I'm with Joe Bastardi on keeping the highest impact areas over the east coast this season with lesser amounts of tropical influence over the Gulf and possibly one coming straight on at western Florida late year. I had that pretty well nailed down from the start. Looking to see ridging stand back up over the west coast and drought risks to continue out there. That's a megadrought starting on that map and pending La Niña is no help. 

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