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June Observations and Discussion


Tom

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5 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

The final half of may i had measurable  rain on 14 of 15 days.  In june  I have a gran total of 6/100.  A pop up.  Basically  no rain the first 15 days of June and barely a cloud.  6 days over 90f.  I love living in Iowa, but these wild swings  in weather here drive  me crazy.  I lived in 2 east coast states 39 years and these  harsh ups and downs almost never happened.  But is the norm in southeast Iowa.

Usually it’s not quite this extreme in se. Iowa, but this year is really weird, especially the lack of t. storms! The plains states are on average more extreme than eastern Iowa.

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It's a cool and crisp morning here (52F/50F) and with clear skies there is a splendid sunrise.  This air has an almost Autumn feel to it...is there more of this down the road?  As mentioned, some rediculous heat is ongoing in the SW where PHX set a new record of 115F but that's nothing compared to 121F in Needles, CA!  I think we will see higher temps today/tomorrow.

ct-wea-0616-featureGLG2FN.jpg

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Long Range HRRR looks pretty similar to the GFS/GEFS in terms of where we may see the heaviest rainfall from the storms late Thu into Fri...this set up has the potential for training storms.  Could be looking at another good hit for Chicago.

06z GFS...

gfs_apcpn_ncus_10.png

hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_48.png

 

06z NAM3km...

nam3km_apcpn_ncus_20.png

 

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38 minutes ago, Tom said:

It's a cool and crisp morning here (52F/50F) and with clear skies there is a splendid sunrise.  This air has an almost Autumn feel to it...is there more of this down the road?  As mentioned, some rediculous heat is ongoing in the SW where PHX set a new record of 115F but that's nothing compared to 121F in Needles, CA!  I think we will see higher temps today/tomorrow.

ct-wea-0616-featureGLG2FN.jpg

After highs around 100 tomorrow and Friday some cooler air will be very welcome. I could see highs in the upper 70s next week with a couple of good rain chances.

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25 minutes ago, Clinton said:

After highs around 100 tomorrow and Friday some cooler air will be very welcome. I could see highs in the upper 70s next week with a couple of good rain chances.

Next week is looking mighty fine in the precip dept.  Plenty of chances of storms dialing up.  I think this is going to be an active week of tracking storms...prob the best week of the entire year for a lot of us.  It starts up this way later tomorrow and then Father's Day/Summer Solstice...what a way to welcome Summer, ay? 

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I’m liking storm chances late Thursday. DVN thinks there’s also a possibility of back building storms on the west side of the MCS which may propagate south over eastern Iowa or west of the Mississippi River.  However many of the models don’t look to impressive for me attm.
 

B429767F-9A20-4081-9C69-E3472A98C0F9.jpeg

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Models continue to be iffy with the Thursday night action.  The new 12z HRRR keeps most of the organized convection up in Wisconsin, with only scattered stuff from my area to Chicago.  It struggles to hold together over here.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

12z high Rez Nam is a direct hit for Chicago…multiple rounds…hope it’s right!  Nighttime boomers always a dangerous scenario in terms of severe ex.

I'd hate to see a nice line pass off to my north and northeast, but models suggest that's the most likely scenario.

 

nam3km_apcpn_ncus_20.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 minute ago, Hawkeye said:

I'd hate to see a nice line pass off to my north and northeast.

 

nam3km_apcpn_ncus_20.png

These MCS's tend to drag south so I'm still not 100% sold but you gotta give kuddos to the model for being so consistent if it ends u being right.

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On 6/14/2021 at 11:40 PM, OmahaSnowFan said:

Don’t blame Abbott and the rest of the GOP. They were busy trying to secretly pass voter restrictions, attacking women’s rights and their bodies, attacking COVID measures, and allowing permitless carry, instead of updating the power grid like they were told to a decade ago.

Oh I hold him responsible.  You bet. 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Long ways out, but of interest to me at this time of year, what are the climate models suggesting for late Autumn???  @ben noll showing some some strat maps from the ECMWF/UKMET models and both have a weak PV setting up for November.  The CFSv2 has been consistently showing massive blocking across Eurasia in November.  Strong HP in Eurasia usually means a weak PV in November.  This is obviously a long ways out but to see various climate models all agree on this idea is interesting to say the least.

 

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juiCF3Sp_normal.jpg
 
Of interest: both the ECMWF and UKMET are predicting a weaker-than-normal stratospheric polar vortex during November... While we can't come to any grand conclusions, a potential weaker vortex around the start of winter 2021-22 is a puzzle piece well worth watching ❄️

 

Image

Image

 

CFSv2...

1.gif

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Quite the hot start to met summer for Chicago...we hold #1 for the time being...

Quote
What a start to Meteorological Summer!First half of June in #Chicago was the warmest on record, since records began in 1871!
1. 2021 75.9
2. 1925 75.6
3. 1973 74.2
4. 1933 73.9
5. 1963 73.9
6. 2017 73.9

 

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1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

We're under guidance for today's high. Only hit 93 so far today, but the dews have returned back to near 70 so the HI on my backyard thermometer has been running 98-100. Actual air temp was supposed to hit 97 today.

Tomorrow they've upped the grids to 103-105 across the metro.

I thinkl drier air is moving in from the west. Dew in Lincoln has gone from 69 to 60 and temp is now at 102. That forecast for tomorrow suddenly isn't looking as ridiculous anymore. The no 100s streak has ended at 3 years and 1 day. I would've preferred it to continue for another year or maybe ten lol 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Farmers are desperate for rain here with D0 drought here since last week. It’s really dry and the lawns are brownish already. The corn leaves are rolling during the day as well with some looking like pineapple! Usually signs of rainfall fail during a drought, but I’m hoping for a miracle!

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7 hours ago, Tom said:

Long ways out, but of interest to me at this time of year, what are the climate models suggesting for late Autumn???  @ben noll showing some some strat maps from the ECMWF/UKMET models and both have a weak PV setting up for November.  The CFSv2 has been consistently showing massive blocking across Eurasia in November.  Strong HP in Eurasia usually means a weak PV in November.  This is obviously a long ways out but to see various climate models all agree on this idea is interesting to say the least.

 

 

Image

Image

 

CFSv2...

1.gif

Bring it...got our boat rides in, I'm ready for snow!

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4 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Most states do the same thing, Outside the coastal states - nearly every state sees those changes or something very similar. But not to the extent of Lower Canada and ND.  North Dakota takes the cake - last I checked. Not even close- 182F change from low to high in same year. (1936)- 122F and -60F) --- nothing comes close outside Siberia.

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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In the end, the Euro is going to end up right with the Heat winning this week.  For days the GFS was the coolest but doesn't appear that will come to fruition as the models are increasing temps this weekend.  I think the tropical system has something to do with it that is going to hit the LA coast on Fri.  Not complaining here as it should be a quite weekend expect for later on Sunday (possibly).  The Euro keeps mid 90's for Sat and Sun which would result in our official 1st legit Heat wave if all holds true.  I'm all good with that...boating season is upon us...btw, Lake Michigan water temps have warmed into the low 70's for the southern parts of the lake..

 

mh_compare_wt_at_sites1.png

 

 

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The JMA weeklies are indicating a common theme that has been showing up on the models in the LR...an oscilating NE PAC/West Cost Ridge....

 

Week 2...

2.png

Temp/Precip...very wet eastern Sub...

Y202106.D1612_gl2.png

 

Y202106.D1612_gl0.png

 

Week 3-4...western U.S. ridge comes back...

 

3.png

Temp/Precip...Monsoon picks up activity in the SW...cool to near avg temps for the majority of our Sub as we enter the 1st half of July.  Wet GL's/OHV???

Y202106.D1612_gl2.png

 

 

Y202106.D1612_gl0.png

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Looking like Hawkeye is about to get a little rain. Sure hope some of it makes it down here. If it holds together or increases, it should. That would take the edge off of the heat.
Only a few models are really good for storms at my place for tonight’s round.

Edited by Sparky
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15 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Looking like Hawkeye is about to get a little rain. Sure hope some of it makes it down here. If it holds together or increases, it should. That would take the edge off of the heat.
Only a few models are really good for storms at my place.  

Just enough to wet the grass here.  Heavier stuff just missed to my west. 

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