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June Observations and Discussion


Tom

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“Only” 103 in Lincoln today which would be the highest since 2012. That’s a 134 degree swing compared to February. Also The 105 in Omaha is insane! I just got back into town from Clarinda, a little cooler there but little more humid. Afternoon felt like an oven. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Its 84f at Ottumwa  airport at 4 am. 81f at my home at 5 am. Apparently  a north wind, dry front.  Possibly  the warmest night of my life. My high was 95f Thurs.  Ive recieved 6/100 of rain in June and really dont expect a inch all month.  June could be only my 4th month significantly  below avg precip since  Aug 2018.  Im not very optimistic  my area can fend off this massive drought any longer.  With virtually  few clouds and 17 hrs of sun and 10 days over 90 in June our  run is over.  Feels very much like 2017 or 2012.

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I woke up to the sound of rumbles of thunder as I had my window cracked open and my fan on medium last night because my dang compressor blew on my A/C!  Thankfully, I'm getting an emergency install later this afternoon for a brand new unit.  It was 79F downstairs when I got up and then the heavens opened up with torrential downpours.  Mother Nature couldn't have planned this better as she is delivering the goods right where our state needs it.  Parts of NE IL were updated to Extreme Drought conditions.  I will say, that when I was up there last week, it is very dry as the soils are cracking and crusty.  This mornings storms are training a bit up there so I'm sure those folks are delighted...as they should be.

 

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31 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Its 84f at Ottumwa  airport at 4 am. 81f at my home at 5 am. Apparently  a north wind, dry front.  Possibly  the warmest night of my life. My high was 95f Thurs.  Ive recieved 6/100 of rain in June and really dont expect a inch all month.  June could be only my 4th month significantly  below avg precip since  Aug 2018.  Im not very optimistic  my area can fend off this massive drought any longer.  With virtually  few clouds and 17 hrs of sun and 10 days over 90 in June our  run is over.  Feels very much like 2017 or 2012.

I’ld say you have a decent chance (at least better than me) of storms in southern Iowa later today. I’m afraid it will mostly be passing just south of my community per most of the models and southward sagging front. 

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For the most part, I'd say the new FV3 Hi-Res had the right idea 24-48 hours out.  It primarily had the line of storms forming in WI and sagging south into N IL and all across lower MI.  It was rock steady with this solution for several runs in a row.  I think I'll pay attn to this model moreso in the future.  

Speaking of the future, this model is seeing some more storms firing up later tonight along the I-80 corridor and possibly up this way.

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With the thought of storms on my mind, the pattern next week is just the beginning of a volatile wx pattern I see coming down the road.  Back loaded Severe Wx season???  I see what your doing nature...

As I was flipping through the wx maps this morning, I happened to "see" something very intriguing and quite fascinating to be honest.  Is it a coincidence that on the 1st full day of astronomical Summer (21st), we literally see major troughs placed in a lower caste  "T" pattern across the Northern Hemisphere???  Wow, how rare is this???  Sure, I could see this happen during the winter but in Summer??  Blocking, blocking, blocking....the unusual wx pattern of '21 continues...wait till the end of the month as I see a monster cut-off trough pin wheeling over the N Sub.  

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I just came back from quickly spreading some more Weed & Feed on my lawn as everything is damp/wet.  I saw the radar showing signs of building more storms so I took advantage of this window of opportunity and lay down the fertilizer.

 

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Yes, there was a thundershower here this morning. Nothing severe here, I did record 0.70" of rain. The overnight low here was 66 with that rain before that it was in the low 70's most of the night. At this time it is 66 with some light rain still falling.

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Most runs of most models showed last night would be a bust for most of Iowa, and they were right.  ☹️

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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39 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Southern Iowa has been upgraded to “enhanced risk” mainly for hail. I’m on the northern fringe.  Let’s see if the SPC gets it right this time.

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Headed down to lake rathbun this weekend.  Hope they get it right as well!

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2 hours ago, Sparky said:

Southern Iowa has been upgraded to “enhanced risk” mainly for hail. I’m on the northern fringe.  Let’s see if the SPC gets it right this time.

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Well, models has performed  horribly  to me.  I would be quite content with a inch of rain tonight.  Set up of west to east stalled front and wobbling front near Missouri  border is usually  good for my area. But the tropical  system and  horrid drought  to north and west doesn't  bode well.  I fear just more hype.  I will  let you  know what happens here.

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Looking at yesterday's summary, McCook had the highest temp in the state at 108. Next in line is 106 at Grand Island followed by several 105s. Today almost feels pleasant in the upper 80s, cloudy, and humid. That's when you know summer has gone on too long lol. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Storms are trying to develop, but having a hard time so far. I wish they would really erupt, and they might soon. Not sure why so much dry air is just beneath the mid level cloud layer, but I could see it with the virga like clouds this evening. A few sprinkles so far.

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5 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Well, models has performed  horribly  to me.  I would be quite content with a inch of rain tonight.  Set up of west to east stalled front and wobbling front near Missouri  border is usually  good for my area. But the tropical  system and  horrid drought  to north and west doesn't  bode well.  I fear just more hype.  I will  let you  know what happens here.

Better storms just starting up now south of Des Moines. These look more substantial and probably will be the main show eventually. I think you’re in a better spot for storms!

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1003.html

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Those storms that formed in IA/IL last night I'm sure were something else if you were watching them to your south.  That light show was probably gorgeous.  Lot's of wind/hail storm reports from them last night.

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My new A/C was finally installed and working by midnight last night!  Gosh, I'm so thankful the techs committed to doing the job so quickly...how did people live without it back in the day???  Crazy.

 

Anyhow, ORD tacked on yet another 90F day yesterday which makes it #8 for the season.  We'll try to do it again today and tomorrow...more severe wx on deck for Father's Day???  The CAM's are showing signs of a nasty line forming over or near the IA/IL border and tracking east in the afternoon/evening on Sunday.

SPC has a large area of slight risk but I think they'll be upping the ante...

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Another good soaking looking likely for the region on Sunday...

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You gotta love what the models are cooking up for the eastern Sub over the course of the next 7 days.  Multiple chances for Severe Wx as the pattern is ripe for explosive development.  The massive heat dome out west will build east and provide the fuel to those of us on the NE periphery.  I'm liking the chances for a nocturnal MCS to develop over the same areas that are getting hit of late across MN/IA/WI/IL and then races S/SE into MI/IN region...smack dab where the drought has been growing...nature playing her balancing act???

00z EPS...next 10 days...

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How do we finish the month of June???  The LR forecasting clues suggested a major trough to develop across the Sub and it appears likely that a lot of us will enjoy a bit of a cool spell as well as plentiful chances of precip.  #VolatilityReigns

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The overnight low here was 63 at this time it is cloudy and 65.The official overnight low at GRR so far has been 65. There are a lot of clouds to the south of here and there was a red sunrise and there is some rain off to the west and southwest of GR. So far this month the mean is 72.4 that is good for a departure of +5.1 so the month is still well above average in the temperature department. The official rain fall for the month at GRR is now at 1.30" and that is below the average of 2.40" We should catch up on that rain fall amounts today and again tomorrow. It has just started raining here.

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What a night down here.  2.15 in my gages. But friend in albia 2.9. Friend near eldon 2.79.  Going to our  other property  near Ottumwa, looks like a easy 3 inches.   Creek got to 3/4 bank full, the highest since  last sept when we had the 8 inch week.   No hail, slight wind damage. Lost power 5 minutes.  Most lawns never really burned up here.  After so many localized droughts here in past years. This is a unbelievable  run. Somehow  Ottumwa  has fended off drought  now since Aug 2018..  regular  timely rains. Good for business!

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The weekend looks hot and dry with only slight chances of rain today and a better shot tomorrow. It is very dry here, my father in-law stoped planting beens because the soil was to dry. It we get some rain soon he will resume if not he will hope his corn can make It.

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