Hawkeye Posted June 23, 2021 Report Share Posted June 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Amazingly I got 1.18" yesterday. Many models were showing this to be a very minor event until yesterday, so it was quite a surprise. More coming Thursday it appears. The Euro underplayed it the most. Its runs were only showing a few tenths at best. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted June 23, 2021 Report Share Posted June 23, 2021 Looking at the models, the big rain event Thursday/Friday is not necessarily a slam dunk for anyone. The GFS has been showing much of the heavy rain getting stuck in Missouri. This morning's HRRR agrees with that. Other models also have some locations getting screwed. It will just depend on where the storms pop and if big action down south ruins it for locations farther north. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted June 23, 2021 Report Share Posted June 23, 2021 The departure from average yesterday was -15.7° that is the biggest negative departure on any day in June since a departure of -15.8° on June 6th 1998. The trend for this year has been for some very big temperature swings as (June-15.7, +12.7°) May(-18.4, +19.9) April (-15.8°, +23.9°) have had huge departures of both above and below average. While March had a huge +24.5 day but February had a huge -21.9° departure. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted June 23, 2021 Report Share Posted June 23, 2021 The HRRR and 3km NAM both show lots of rain in the next 48hrs for my region but in different areas, both give me around 2in which would be perfect.. If they split the difference it could be to much. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted June 23, 2021 Report Share Posted June 23, 2021 Man the CAMs seem to be completely clueless about storm placement and severe chances tomorrow and Friday. Each model seems to be different on placement and parameters. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted June 23, 2021 Report Share Posted June 23, 2021 The globals are all over the place, too. The Canadian and UK don't have any MCS tracking from the plains into Missouri. Instead, they blow up convection farther northeast in Iowa. This will be a nowcast event. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted June 23, 2021 Report Share Posted June 23, 2021 Ukie says, have indoor plans this weekend. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted June 23, 2021 Report Share Posted June 23, 2021 Canadian 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted June 23, 2021 Report Share Posted June 23, 2021 9 hours ago, Hawkeye said: Last evening all the heavy rain was sinking south of Cedar Rapids, so I was just hoping to get a few tenths out of it. However, the tail hung back through the area all night. Several rounds of solid rain added up to a very nice 1.01". For my area I was pretty much in the dryer hole 🕳 as usual. Adjacent counties south and west had totals exceeding 1.50” again or around 10 miles from here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted June 23, 2021 Report Share Posted June 23, 2021 In recent days many of the models had been showing se. Iowa getting very heavy rainfall, but I haven’t checked the most recent runs of many models today yet. Here’s a not so recent run of what the 10 day 06z GFS was showing last Thursday! Lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted June 23, 2021 Report Share Posted June 23, 2021 41 minutes ago, Sparky said: In recent days many of the models had been showing se. Iowa getting very heavy rainfall, but I haven’t checked the most recent runs of many models today yet. Here’s what the 10 day 06z GFS was showing last Thursday! Lol I've seen some recent runs showing 12-15" in a small area in southeast Iowa! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted June 23, 2021 Report Share Posted June 23, 2021 Northern Missouri added to an enhanced risk for tomorrow.... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted June 23, 2021 Report Share Posted June 23, 2021 Euro 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted June 23, 2021 Report Share Posted June 23, 2021 44 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Northern Missouri added to an enhanced risk for tomorrow.... Flash Flood Watch issued as well. 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted June 23, 2021 Report Share Posted June 23, 2021 SPC day 2 discussion. Will KC finally get a tornado watch? SPC AC 231734 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MO AND FAR NORTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region of the central Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley, and upper Midwest on Thursday. The greatest threat is currently forecast over northern Missouri and vicinity during the afternoon and evening, with a risk of large hail, damaging wind, and a tornado or two. ...Central Plains into Upper Midwest and Mid Mississippi Valley... An Enhanced Risk has been added across portions of far northeast KS into northern MO, where confidence in potentially multiple rounds of strong/severe storms is currently highest. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of early day convection. One MCS (or its remnant) may be ongoing across some portion of IA/MO/western IL Thursday morning, while another may be ongoing across some portion of WI/MI. These systems could pose a threat of isolated damaging wind during the morning, but should tend to weaken with time as they move southeastward out of the primary instability axis. Meanwhile, a surface low is forecast to deepen through the afternoon across central KS, as persistent southerly surface flow continues to maintain rich low-level moisture into portions of the central Plains and MO/MS Valleys. Redevelopment of intense convection is expected by afternoon, along the eastern edge of an EML emanating out of the central/southern Rockies/High Plains. Initiation will likely be associated with outflows from overnight convection, aided by a seasonably strong southwesterly low-level jet. At this time, the most favored region appears to be from extreme northeast KS into northern MO, where multiple rounds of potentially severe storms from afternoon into the evening/overnight will be possible. Initial redevelopment during the afternoon, and potential backbuilding storms Thursday evening on the western edge of ongoing convection, will pose a threat of large hail. Low-level shear may be sufficient to support some tornado threat with any surface-based supercell, especially with any cell interacting with a modified outflow boundary. Damaging winds could become the primary concern with time, especially with any bowing segments that can develop. Across portions of WI into the U.P of MI, thunderstorm development will be possible by late afternoon along a cold front and any remnant outflow boundaries. Instability and shear will support a threat of hail and locally damaging wind with the strongest storms. ...Central High Plains... High-based convection is again expected to develop across portions of the central High Plains during the afternoon, posing an initial threat of localized severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail. As this convection spreads eastward, it will encounter a much more moist/unstable environment and could potentially intensify into Thursday evening. As this occurs, any remaining semi-discrete storms would continue to pose a threat of large hail, while potential will exist for an upscale-growing cluster capable of at least localized significant (65 kt or greater) wind gusts, given ample DCAPE across the region. ...Northern Plains... Isolated to scattered storms should develop through the day along a secondary cold front from parts of northeastern MT into the Dakotas as a subtle shortwave trough moves across this region. Low-level moisture and boundary-layer instability will likely remain rather limited, with surface dewpoints mainly in the low to mid 50s. Still, this weak instability coupled with strong deep-layer shear may be sufficient for isolated supercells to pose a severe hail and strong/gusty wind threat through at least the early evening. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted June 23, 2021 Report Share Posted June 23, 2021 18z HRRR is sticking to its south scenario. This would be a huge bust for Iowa. This continues to be my worry because I've seen it happen many times. The first MCS misses south, which keeps the boundaries south, so the next MCS misses south as well, and the next, etc. 2 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted June 23, 2021 Report Share Posted June 23, 2021 DVN is now mentioning the possibility the HRRR scenario could be correct. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted June 23, 2021 Report Share Posted June 23, 2021 Well bad news around my county area. Last night the first of what was two supercells passed through my county. Multiple fields got shreaded by hail last night. Now it looks like a pretty good bet of a possible wind damaging MCS rolling through tonight. We need the rain but too bad about the crops. I was able to chase both supercells that passed through my county and the lightning was crazy! IMG_1330.MOV 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted June 23, 2021 Report Share Posted June 23, 2021 1 hour ago, gabel23 said: Well bad news around my county area. Last night the first of what was two supercells passed through my county. Multiple fields got shreaded by hail last night. Now it looks like a pretty good bet of a possible wind damaging MCS rolling through tonight. We need the rain but too bad about the crops. I was able to chase both supercells that passed through my county and the lightning was crazy! IMG_1330.MOV My sister lives just outside of Schuyler and shared a picture of the corn crop shredded down to the ground basically from last night's hail and wind 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted June 23, 2021 Report Share Posted June 23, 2021 2 hours ago, Hawkeye said: DVN is now mentioning the possibility the HRRR scenario could be correct. First we need 2” more rain to get closer to normal amounts! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted June 23, 2021 Report Share Posted June 23, 2021 21Z HRRR looks pretty good for storms here tonight and heavy rain amounts as well. I keep putting off watering hoping for it to just rain so hopefully that happens the next couple of days. The 18Z run of the NAM looked pretty darn amazing for sups tomorrow along the NE/KS border. Another model that's been all over the place for tomorrow's weather so I hoping it's picked the right solution. I've seen multiple chasers mention that run and if it's true, could be a big day tomorrow for tornadoes. TONS of CAPE, temp/dewpoint spreads of only 2-4 degrees, lol with temps in the low 80s and dews near 80, and even better showing tons of low level CAPE. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted June 23, 2021 Report Share Posted June 23, 2021 It’s looking more like tonight’s event will be heading into Northern Missouri. The main show for us in Iowa may not be until Friday sometime. If tomorrow is a dud it better be good on Friday, or else….! Haha 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted June 24, 2021 Report Share Posted June 24, 2021 90 degrees feels like 97 with a 72 dew at 7:30. No thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted June 24, 2021 Report Share Posted June 24, 2021 Hopefully we get something good 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted June 24, 2021 Report Share Posted June 24, 2021 00z HRRR 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted June 24, 2021 Report Share Posted June 24, 2021 3km NAM and HRRR getting close to agreement. Looks like I will make up my June depisit. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted June 24, 2021 Report Share Posted June 24, 2021 Wow! Severe tstorm watch issued for scattered wind gusts up to 90 mph!! That’s one of the highest wind speeds I’ve seen for a watch here in quite a while. Normally 80 mph is considered a high number for possible wind speeds. Also, we’ve now had 3 severe tstorm watches this month. 2 that ended at 5 am, and the other that ended at 11 am. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted June 24, 2021 Report Share Posted June 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Wow! Severe tstorm watch issued for scattered wind gusts up to 90 mph!! That’s one of the highest wind speeds I’ve seen for a watch here in quite a while. Normally 80 mph is considered a high number for possible wind speeds. Also, we’ve now had 3 severe tstorm watches this month. 2 that ended at 5 am, and the other that ended at 11 am. The crazy thing (and hopefully good thing) it's only a moderate risk on the dial. I would think a 90 mph likely would mean a high risk for wind on the watch detail. Regardless the supercell in O'neill is combining with the main line and will run into a lot of instability....and a low level jet. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted June 24, 2021 Report Share Posted June 24, 2021 Major spreads tomorrow on the models. Some show rain in the morning and then dry almost all day. Others show heavy rain for most of the day. I have a feeling the 3K NAM is on to something with its solution. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted June 24, 2021 Report Share Posted June 24, 2021 This would be horrible for our area, this would expand crop damage or make things worst around here. Until 145 AM CDT. * At 1257 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Norfolk, moving east at 35 mph. This is a very dangerous storm. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. SOURCE...Law enforcement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted June 24, 2021 Report Share Posted June 24, 2021 Low level jet just pumping out in front of this line. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted June 24, 2021 Report Share Posted June 24, 2021 Not often we see tornado warnings at night around here. The leading edge of these storms must be spinning up some crazy air out ahead of the line. The way it looks things will pass off to my north; I could use the rain but it looks like I will be hit by the wind instead. Tornado Warning NEC119-167-240645- /O.NEW.KOAX.TO.W.0003.210624T0611Z-210624T0645Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska 111 AM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021 The National Weather Service in Omaha has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Madison County in northeastern Nebraska... Southwestern Stanton County in northeastern Nebraska... * Until 145 AM CDT. * At 111 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Madison, or 13 miles south of Norfolk, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Stanton around 130 AM CDT. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted June 24, 2021 Report Share Posted June 24, 2021 SVR TS watch issued until 10AM for much of SW/Central IA and NW MO. Might be having the seasons first derecho.. What's moving into OMA in the next hour or so looks nasty on radar... 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted June 24, 2021 Report Share Posted June 24, 2021 Fun times, no power north side of town per fpd 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted June 24, 2021 Report Share Posted June 24, 2021 Here at my house I had 0.02" of rain yesterday evening. Officially at GRR they reported 0.09" of rain fall. The official overnight low at GRR looks to have been 61 the low here at my house was 62 The latest reading from GRR is 64 here at my house I have 63. Grand Rapids has now had 3 days in a row with mean departures of more than 10° below average. Less than a week ago Grand Rapids was on track for one of the warmest June's on record now that is no longer the case and GRR is now just +2.3 with a chance of several more days near or below average. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 24, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 24, 2021 @Clintonlooks like your in a prime area to be on the receiving end of severe storms and flooding....models are mostly targeting N MO 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 24, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 24, 2021 0z Euro continues to keep the frontal boundary draped across the entire region through middle of next week. Extra Tropical moisture is going to create an environment primed for excessive rainfall. Geeze, too much of a good thing??? This is just through the weekend...the model also keeps DP's in the low/mid 70's throughout next week. It'll feel like the living in the Amazon Jungle. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted June 24, 2021 Report Share Posted June 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, Tom said: @Clintonlooks like your in a prime area to be on the receiving end of severe storms and flooding....models are mostly targeting N MO A nice 2in rain would be welcome but this set-up looks like it could produce way more than that for some in my area. Where this morning's activity falls apart will have a big impact on whether I get severe storms tonight. NE Kansas looks like they could be in line for large tornadoes this evening. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 24, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 24, 2021 The JMA weeklies show a continuation of a consistent ridge parked near the PAC NW and SW Canada while a ridge "hooks" over the top across central Canada into Greenland by Week 2-4. Let's not underscore the immense blocking pattern setting up shop for the lower 48. It really does appear to me the Heat is being blown away in the modeling as we get closer to what was my target period right around the 4th of July week. For instance, the EPS has been steadily lowering temps and the GEFS have been trending that way also. Here are some maps from the JMA... Week 2... . Temp/Precip...Pool of Cool continues except for the Upper MW and maybe parts of the western Plains...I'm diggin' the Monsoonal Moisture that shows NO sign of relaxing heading into July. Kuddos to the CFSv2 which saw this pattern weeks ago. Euro Weeklies was non existent. Week 3-4... Temp/Precip...pattern remains stagnant and blocked up...moisture continues in the 4 corners region... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 24, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 24, 2021 2 hours ago, Clinton said: A nice 2in rain would be welcome but this set-up looks like it could produce way more than that for some in my area. Where this morning's activity falls apart will have a big impact on whether I get severe storms tonight. NE Kansas looks like they could be in line for large tornadoes this evening. 12z HRRR whallops your region…training storms galore… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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