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June Observations and Discussion


Tom

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12z HRRR... fun time for Missouri, not so much for some areas to the north.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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19 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

12z HRRR... fun time for Missouri, not so much for some areas to the north.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

I just looked at forecast amounts for my area on the 12z HRRR, 0.0”. NWS Hastings is like the boy crying wolf with their daily forecast of rain that doesn’t materialize, at least around here. 

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

I've been begging for rain but that's just ridiculous!

Yes would be nice to spread it out more, especially north ! This morning’s event totally skipped over me. It sure moved fast which may be good in letting the atmosphere recover, but the SPC pretty much dropped the slight risk today for most of Iowa. Just a trace of rain and no thunder and I don’t feel very good about later today.
 

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47 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I just looked at forecast amounts for my area on the 12z HRRR, 0.0”. NWS Hastings is like the boy crying wolf with their daily forecast of rain that doesn’t materialize, at least around here. 

Most models also were calling wolf. I’ld probably be better off not looking at them.lol Have they even improved in the last two decades!? They just give us a general idea so what’s the point with the higher resolution!?

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Just finished mowing the yard. Most humid day so far this year, even though it is cloudy. Absolutely pouring sweat. Dew in the low 70’s with only a slight breeze. The yards have really slowed and are now in that stressed time. Without rainfall, if you don’t have a sprinkler system, things will start turning brown. Already seeing it in some yards. Those 100 degree days and wind of last week were horrible. Crops look good, but irrigation is now having to go full time. 

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A normal summer week ahead then another cold front.  Mid to high 90’s Sunny. But,  Weird summer. Something  tells me this coming winter will be a repeat of last winters Texas deep freeze.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Storms chances continue to diminish around here. Missed storms earlier and now looks like things will set up just to my south. That is getting to be a bad theme in the last 3 1/2 weeks. Forecast rain chances again look to be wrong, was at 60% this evening, now that is falling to a 20% chance.  HRRR has been pretty accurate in my opinion, but local forecasters seem to discount it. I think @Hawkeyehas been saying this for a couple of days. 

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Nice hook echo on the tornado-warned storm east of Lincoln.  Another severe cell is approaching Lincoln from the sw.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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6 hours ago, BMT said:

Give me another inch or two of rain over the next couple of days and that would be perfect.  We don’t need 6” anyway.  

But we need them showing 6” so we can get 1”. Lol

 

Anyway, things are transpiring as expected tonight with stormy looking skies to the south with distant thunder. Even the weaker storms further north want to pass just north and south of me again with a dry slot aimed right in my direction attm! It could fill in though.

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1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

Nice hook echo on the tornado-warned storm east of Lincoln.  Another severe cell is approaching Lincoln from the sw.

There was a confirmed tornado in sw. Iowa earlier, but that cell totally whiffed or dissipated. 

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It's been a busy week so I haven't check in here much regarding this severe threat, but very heavy rain in Shenandoah, Iowa at the moment. Pretty intense thunder and lightning earlier as well, fortunately no tornadoes. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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00z HRRR... every run continues to have pockets of very little rain somewhere in the area.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Ottumwa may be about to get some pretty heavy rain.  An east-west band of red is parking over hw34.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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21 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Ottumwa may be about to get some pretty heavy rain.  An east-west band of red is parking over hw34.

Getting rocked.. 1.3 here and im a weak spot..   southern wapello  county  up to 4 to 5 inches.   Albia is floating..  getting text from people.  Hwy 5 closed

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Wow..   The rich get richer.. Southeast  Iowa remain miles ahead of the rest of this state.   I am at 3.05 for today, only about .20 fell this am on the dying mcs.  My home is  one of lighter locations!  Parts of Ottumwa  city are very close to 5 inches.  I know for a fact some  spots in Southern  Wapello  cty are over 6 inches near Eldon. One location  on the Wapello  Davis County line looks to have possibly  8 inches.  But Vanburen county has had  has repeated heavy rains for a week. Anyone know some official  numbers from there?

Screenshot_20210624-233821_Gallery.jpg

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1 hour ago, clintbeed1993 said:

It has literally been storming and raining heavily on and off for 5 hours straight in St Joe, MO. Reports of up to 10 inches of rain north or town near the Nebraska border!  WE'RE GUNNA NEED A BIGGER BOAT

Yeah- sounds like some water rescues N of St.Joe-- and still raining and training.  Not good.

Flash Flood Warning
KSC043-MOC003-021-087-250915-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-210625T0915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1251 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

The National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill MO has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Doniphan County in northeastern Kansas...
  Southern Andrew County in northwestern Missouri...
  Northern Buchanan County in northwestern Missouri...
  Southeastern Holt County in northwestern Missouri...

* Until 415 AM CDT.

* At 1251 AM CDT, local law enforcement reported thunderstorms
  producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 3 and 8
  inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
  inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is already
  occurring.

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Law enforcement reported.

  IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
           urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  St. Joseph, Savannah, Wathena, Elwood, Highland, Troy, Country
  Club Villa, Country Club, Agency, Union Star, Amazonia, White
  Cloud, Denton, Easton, Cosby, Severance, Huron, Leona, St. Joseph
  Airport and Fanning.

All roads around Amazonia are flooded...including portions of
Interstate 29. A few water rescues and evacuations are also
occurring.

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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