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41 minutes ago, Sparky said:

In recent days many of the models had been showing se. Iowa getting very heavy rainfall, but I haven’t checked the most recent runs of many models today yet. Here’s what the 10 day 06z GFS was showing last Thursday! Lol

 

DF811368-D9CD-4A92-842B-8F69D66C9D86.jpeg

I've seen some recent runs showing 12-15" in a small area in southeast Iowa!

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SPC day 2 discussion.  Will KC finally get a tornado watch?

SPC AC 231734

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1234 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF NORTHERN MO AND FAR NORTHEAST KS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad
   region of the central Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley, and upper
   Midwest on Thursday. The greatest threat is currently forecast over
   northern Missouri and vicinity during the afternoon and evening,
   with a risk of large hail, damaging wind, and a tornado or two.

   ...Central Plains into Upper Midwest and Mid Mississippi Valley...
   An Enhanced Risk has been added across portions of far northeast KS
   into northern MO, where confidence in potentially multiple rounds of
   strong/severe storms is currently highest. 

   Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of early
   day convection. One MCS (or its remnant) may be ongoing across some
   portion of IA/MO/western IL Thursday morning, while another may be
   ongoing across some portion of WI/MI. These systems could pose a
   threat of isolated damaging wind during the morning, but should tend
   to weaken with time as they move southeastward out of the primary
   instability axis. 

   Meanwhile, a surface low is forecast to deepen through the afternoon
   across central KS, as persistent southerly surface flow continues to
   maintain rich low-level moisture into portions of the central Plains
   and MO/MS Valleys. Redevelopment of intense convection is expected
   by afternoon, along the eastern edge of an EML emanating out of the
   central/southern Rockies/High Plains. Initiation will likely be
   associated with outflows from overnight convection, aided by a
   seasonably strong southwesterly low-level jet. 

   At this time, the most favored region appears to be from extreme
   northeast KS into northern MO, where multiple rounds of potentially
   severe storms from afternoon into the evening/overnight will be
   possible. Initial redevelopment during the afternoon, and potential
   backbuilding storms Thursday evening on the western edge of ongoing
   convection, will pose a threat of large hail. Low-level shear may be
   sufficient to support some tornado threat with any surface-based
   supercell, especially with any cell interacting with a modified
   outflow boundary. Damaging winds could become the primary concern
   with time, especially with any bowing segments that can develop. 

   Across portions of WI into the U.P of MI, thunderstorm development
   will be possible by late afternoon along a cold front and any
   remnant outflow boundaries. Instability and shear will support a
   threat of hail and locally damaging wind with the strongest storms. 

   ...Central High Plains...
   High-based convection is again expected to develop across portions
   of the central High Plains during the afternoon, posing an initial
   threat of localized severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail. As this
   convection spreads eastward, it will encounter a much more
   moist/unstable environment and could potentially intensify into
   Thursday evening. As this occurs, any remaining semi-discrete storms
   would continue to pose a threat of large hail, while potential will
   exist for an upscale-growing cluster capable of at least localized
   significant (65 kt or greater) wind gusts, given ample DCAPE across
   the region. 

   ...Northern Plains...
   Isolated to scattered storms should develop through the day along a
   secondary cold front from parts of northeastern MT into the Dakotas
   as a subtle shortwave trough moves across this region. Low-level
   moisture and boundary-layer instability will likely remain rather
   limited, with surface dewpoints mainly in the low to mid 50s. Still,
   this weak instability coupled with strong deep-layer shear may be
   sufficient for isolated supercells to pose a severe hail and
   strong/gusty wind threat through at least the early evening.
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18z HRRR is sticking to its south scenario.  This would be a huge bust for Iowa.

This continues to be my worry because I've seen it happen many times.  The first MCS misses south, which keeps the boundaries south, so the next MCS misses south as well, and the next, etc.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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DVN is now mentioning the possibility the HRRR scenario could be correct.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Well bad news around my county area. Last night the first of what was two supercells passed through my county. Multiple fields got shreaded by hail last night. Now it looks like a pretty good bet of a possible wind damaging MCS rolling through tonight. We need the rain but too bad about the crops. I was able to chase both supercells that passed through my county and the lightning was crazy! 

IMG_1298.JPG

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1 hour ago, gabel23 said:

Well bad news around my county area. Last night the first of what was two supercells passed through my county. Multiple fields got shreaded by hail last night. Now it looks like a pretty good bet of a possible wind damaging MCS rolling through tonight. We need the rain but too bad about the crops. I was able to chase both supercells that passed through my county and the lightning was crazy! 

IMG_1298.JPG

IMG_1330.MOV

My sister lives just outside of Schuyler and shared a picture of the corn crop shredded down to the ground basically from last night's hail and wind

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21Z HRRR looks pretty good for storms here tonight and heavy rain amounts as well. I keep putting off watering hoping for it to just rain so hopefully that happens the next couple of days.

The 18Z run of the NAM looked pretty darn amazing for sups tomorrow along the NE/KS border. Another model that's been all over the place for tomorrow's weather so I hoping it's picked the right solution. I've seen multiple chasers mention that run and if it's true, could be a big day tomorrow for tornadoes. TONS of CAPE, temp/dewpoint spreads of only 2-4 degrees, lol with temps in the low 80s and dews near 80, and even better showing tons of low level CAPE.

nam_2021062318_030_40.12--96.75.png

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It’s looking more like tonight’s event will be heading into Northern Missouri. The main show for us in Iowa may not be until Friday sometime. If tomorrow is a dud it better be good on Friday, or else….! ‍😬🙄Haha 

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00z HRRR

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Wow! Severe tstorm watch issued for scattered wind gusts up to 90😳 mph!!

That’s one of the highest wind speeds I’ve seen for a watch here in quite a while. Normally 80 mph is considered a high number for possible wind speeds.

Also, we’ve now had 3 severe tstorm watches this month. 2 that ended at 5 am, and the other that ended at 11 am.🙄🤣

89D3DB57-D9E2-4B19-829A-80881E2A8240.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Wow! Severe tstorm watch issued for scattered wind gusts up to 90😳 mph!!

That’s one of the highest wind speeds I’ve seen for a watch here in quite a while. Normally 80 mph is considered a high number for possible wind speeds.

Also, we’ve now had 3 severe tstorm watches this month. 2 that ended at 5 am, and the other that ended at 11 am.🙄🤣

89D3DB57-D9E2-4B19-829A-80881E2A8240.jpeg

The crazy thing (and hopefully good thing) it's only a moderate risk on the dial. I would think a 90 mph likely would mean a high risk for wind on the watch detail. Regardless the supercell in O'neill is combining with the main line and will run into a lot of instability....and a low level jet. 

Screen Shot 2021-06-23 at 11.09.30 PM.png

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Major spreads tomorrow on the models. Some show rain in the morning and then dry almost all day. Others show heavy rain for most of the day. I have a feeling the 3K NAM is on to something with its solution. 

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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This would be horrible for our area, this would expand crop damage or make things worst around here. 
 

Until 145 AM CDT.

* At 1257 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Norfolk,
  moving east at 35 mph.

  This is a very dangerous storm.

  HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

  SOURCE...Law enforcement.
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Not often we see tornado warnings at night around here. The leading edge of these storms must be spinning up some crazy air out ahead of the line. The way it looks things will pass off to my north;  I could use the rain but it looks like I will be hit by the wind instead.

Tornado Warning
NEC119-167-240645-
/O.NEW.KOAX.TO.W.0003.210624T0611Z-210624T0645Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
111 AM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

The National Weather Service in Omaha has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southeastern Madison County in northeastern Nebraska...
  Southwestern Stanton County in northeastern Nebraska...

* Until 145 AM CDT.

* At 111 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Madison, or 13 miles south of Norfolk, moving east
  at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Stanton around 130 AM CDT.

 

 

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SVR TS watch issued until 10AM for much of SW/Central IA and NW MO. Might be having the seasons first derecho.. What's moving into OMA in the next hour or so looks nasty on radar...

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Here at my house I had 0.02" of rain yesterday evening. Officially at GRR they reported 0.09" of rain fall. The official overnight low at GRR looks to have been 61 the low here at my house was 62 The latest reading from GRR is 64 here at my house I have 63. Grand Rapids has now had 3 days in a row with mean departures of more than 10° below average. Less than a week ago Grand Rapids was on track for one of the warmest June's on record now that is no longer the case and GRR is now just +2.3 with a chance of several more days near or below average.

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0z Euro continues to keep the frontal boundary draped across the entire region through middle of next week.  Extra Tropical moisture is going to create an environment primed for excessive rainfall.  Geeze, too much of a good thing???  This is just through the weekend...the model also keeps DP's in the low/mid 70's throughout next week.  It'll feel like the living in the Amazon Jungle.

1.png

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Tom said:

@Clintonlooks like your in a prime area to be on the receiving end of severe storms and flooding....models are mostly targeting N MO

 

day1otlk_1200.gif

 

enh_1200.gif

 

 

A nice 2in rain would be welcome but this set-up looks like it could produce way more than that for some in my area. Where this morning's activity falls apart will have a big impact on whether I get severe storms tonight. NE Kansas looks like they could be in line for large tornadoes this evening.

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The JMA weeklies show a continuation of a consistent ridge parked near the PAC NW and SW Canada while a ridge "hooks" over the top across central Canada into Greenland by Week 2-4.  Let's not underscore the immense blocking pattern setting up shop for the lower 48.  It really does appear to me the Heat is being blown away in the modeling as we get closer to what was my target period right around the 4th of July week.  For instance, the EPS has been steadily lowering temps and the GEFS have been trending that way also. 

Here are some maps from the JMA...

Week 2...

2.png.

Temp/Precip...Pool of Cool continues except for the Upper MW and maybe parts of the western Plains...I'm diggin' the Monsoonal Moisture that shows NO sign of relaxing heading into July.  Kuddos to the CFSv2 which saw this pattern weeks ago.  Euro Weeklies was non existent.  

Y202106.D2312_gl2.png

 

Y202106.D2312_gl0.png

 

Week 3-4...

3.png

 

Temp/Precip...pattern remains stagnant and blocked up...moisture continues in the 4 corners region...

Y202106.D2312_gl2.png

 

Y202106.D2312_gl0.png

 

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

A nice 2in rain would be welcome but this set-up looks like it could produce way more than that for some in my area. Where this morning's activity falls apart will have a big impact on whether I get severe storms tonight. NE Kansas looks like they could be in line for large tornadoes this evening.

12z HRRR whallops your region…training storms galore…

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12z HRRR... fun time for Missouri, not so much for some areas to the north.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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19 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

12z HRRR... fun time for Missouri, not so much for some areas to the north.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

I just looked at forecast amounts for my area on the 12z HRRR, 0.0”. NWS Hastings is like the boy crying wolf with their daily forecast of rain that doesn’t materialize, at least around here. 

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12z 3kNAM

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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HRW FV3 has the same idea as the other CAMs.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

I've been begging for rain but that's just ridiculous!

Yes would be nice to spread it out more, especially north ! This morning’s event totally skipped over me. It sure moved fast which may be good in letting the atmosphere recover, but the SPC pretty much dropped the slight risk today for most of Iowa. Just a trace of rain and no thunder and I don’t feel very good about later today.
 

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47 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I just looked at forecast amounts for my area on the 12z HRRR, 0.0”. NWS Hastings is like the boy crying wolf with their daily forecast of rain that doesn’t materialize, at least around here. 

Most models also were calling wolf. I’ld probably be better off not looking at them.lol Have they even improved in the last two decades!? They just give us a general idea so what’s the point with the higher resolution!?

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Just finished mowing the yard. Most humid day so far this year, even though it is cloudy. Absolutely pouring sweat. Dew in the low 70’s with only a slight breeze. The yards have really slowed and are now in that stressed time. Without rainfall, if you don’t have a sprinkler system, things will start turning brown. Already seeing it in some yards. Those 100 degree days and wind of last week were horrible. Crops look good, but irrigation is now having to go full time. 

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I don't buy any of the farther north global models.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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18z HRRR

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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A normal summer week ahead then another cold front.  Mid to high 90’s Sunny. But,  Weird summer. Something  tells me this coming winter will be a repeat of last winters Texas deep freeze.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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