June Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Woke up just after 3:00am to the sound of thunder.  First round of heavy rain has started but there has been a brief lull as more heavy rain is knocking on my doorstep.  This wave is quite fascinating as there is a spin on radar.  The high rez NAM shows this low pressure system tracking directly over Chicago.  The history of this nocturnal MCS has undoubtedly left its mark across our Sub...

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=comprad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=100&interval=5&year=2021&month=6&day=24&hour=22&minute=0

I think the center of this system tracked just south of @OttumwaSnomow....

 

[Tom]

I don't think I've ever seen a model run like this before in the summer season...local radar looks like a defo band setting up right over NE IL...Flood Watch has been hoisted for the area through the weekend.  Let it rain....

 

[Tom]

Getting rocked by a sweet looking bowed line on radar...

[Clinton]

10.5 inches of rain in Savannah MO near St.Joe and not 1 drop in mby last night. Another shot of storms and heavy rain today and Saturday.

[Clinton]

Nice line of storms has developed right on top of me as the morning activity slowly moves out.

[Stormy]

Yesterday forenoon an MCV tracked nearly overhead and several hrs ago another one produced a skinny line of heavy showers on the nw side. The far sw. part of that line fortunately parked over me for a bit dumping around  .90” in just over 30 minutes. Maximum rain rates around 4” per hour. That same skinny line produced yet more maybe 2 miles ne. of me and including se. side of Iowa City, but especially in Cedar county where it sat for several hours and still raining. But I guess that’s nothing compared to areas further south. Last evening’s thunder showers weren’t as efficient rain producers at my place but I was in the northern main band, thankfully. My digital gauge shows 1.44” since it started last evening. Want to check the other gauges yet.
Here is the MCV from yesterday.

This morning’s MCV…

 

Edited June 25, 2021 by Sparky

[Tom]

8 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Yesterday forenoon an MCV tracked nearly overhead and several hrs ago another one produced a skinny line of heavy showers on the nw side. The far sw. part of that line fortunately parked over me for a bit dumping around  .90” in just over 30 minutes. That same skinny line produced yet more maybe 2 miles ne. of me and including se. side of Iowa City, but especially in Cedar county where it sat for several hours and still raining. But I guess that’s nothing compared to areas further south. Last evening’s thunder showers weren’t as efficient rain producers at my place but I was in the northern main band, thankfully. My digital gauge shows 1.44” since it started last evening. Want to check the other gauges yet.
Here is the MCV from yesterday.

This morning’s MCV…

 

FullSizeRender.mov

Very cool wx phenomenon...this part of the pattern has been on my mind for about a week and it's transpiring to a "T"...def something I'll remember for a while.

[westMJim]

My rain fall for yesterday and overnight is now at 1.30" The total at the air port so far looks to be 1.19" for yesterday and 0.03 overnight. The overnight low here was 64 and 66 at the airport. At this time it is 67 both here and at the airport. I have light rain falling and the report at the airport was heavy rain falling. Here is some thing that is very interesting even if it dose not happen.
" POSSIBLE WAKE LOW THIS AFTERNOON  
  
SPEAKING OF THE WIND...IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE MOST OF THE   
MODELS SHOWING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR A WAKE LOW TOWARDS NOON INTO   
THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A GRAND RAPIDS TO   
LANSING LINE LOOKS TO BE AT THE HIGHEST RISK FOR THIS TO HAPPEN.   
WE WILL ADD THIS RISK TO THE HWO...BUMP UP WINDS IN THE GRIDS AND   
MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS. IF THIS FEATURE DOES   
GET GOING...WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR A FEW   
HOURS."

[Clinton]

The line of heavy storms that moved overhead produced .45in in 25 min.  Nice little drink and puts me over an inch for the week.

[CentralNebWeather]

Had to turn the sprinklers on this morning. Kept holding out hope that a forecast would verify and we’d get something. From Tuesday night through this morning, NWS Hastings has had this area between 30-70% chances for rain and thunderstorms and have gotten 0.0”. Today was supposed to be 60-70% now only 20%. Major miss for this area after much hype. 

[westMJim]

very heavy rain falling here now temperature is at 67.

[Clinton]

Some rainfall amounts from overnight and this morning.

[mlgamer]

Lots of wind and thunder but only received about 0.05" in my rain gauge overnight and we could use the moisture. Heavier rains were nearby but somehow they missed MBY. Curse of the Flash Flood Watch no doubt...

[Clinton]

6 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Lots of wind and thunder but only received about 0.05" in my rain gauge overnight and we could use the moisture. Heavier rains were nearby but somehow they missed MBY. Curse of the Flash Flood Watch no doubt...

Hopefully todays set-up favors us better.  I think we'll know how things will go by 3 or so.

[Stormy]

Right now it’s pouring rain from a little band of light orange of around 40 dDZ. Rain “rates” around 2.50”  per hour. 

[Hawkeye]

I picked up 0.13" overnight from the light rain shield.

[Bryan1117]

So happy to say that the last two days I have dumped out about 1.40 inches of rain from the rain gauge in my backyard (nice to be on the winning side of things for once, LOL).

We are finally getting some moisture to break up the hot/dry pattern, and late Wednesday night/Thursday morning delivered the best storms of the season here so far. Last night I decided to treat some out-of-town co-workers to their first College World Series game, and we ended up sitting through a 3 hour and 45 minute rain delay - as rain and thunderstorms tracked through the metro area. 

Took a picture of a gorgeous rainbow from Baseball Village in Downtown Omaha last night during the rain delay, as the sunset illuminated the back of the thunderstorm complex in Western Iowa.

[Clinton]

12z HRRR and 3km NAM for the next 24 hrs.  The 3km NAM has a similar solution to what happened last night only this time south of KC.

[mlgamer]

57 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Hopefully todays set-up favors us better.  I think we'll know how things will go by 3 or so.

The HRRR and 3km NAM QPF charts you posted hint that I could be missed to the south by the next round which I think is a possibility. Almost reminds me of how the snow kept skipping pass the I-70 corridor in my neck of the woods during the winter. Yeah, we'll have to see how things shake out later today.

[Clinton]

6 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

The HRRR and 3km NAM QPF charts you posted hint that I could be missed to the south by the next round which I think is a possibility. Almost reminds me of how the snow kept skipping pass the I-70 corridor in my neck of the woods during the winter. Yeah, we'll have to see how things shake out later today.

Very sharp cutoffs on the NAM that has me nervous also.  

[OttumwaSnomow]

Yesterdays  rain into this am total 3.25"

June total 5.95

Almost all of June rain came after the 18th. 

[Stormy]

Basically, it rained about all night at mostly light to moderate rates till the last two heavy downpours, the last of which dropped another .70”+! Storm total since last evening is a wonderful 2.26”. Now it won’t bug me as much if the next one misses though I would’ve enjoyed a thunderstorm too. Did have some decent lightning n thunder till after midnight though. Some nearby places got much less so Mother Nature kind of filled up this drier whole. Makes me wonder how much nearby counties picked up where showers looked much more substantial! High PWATs make a difference!

[OmahaSnowFan]

Had another little over 1/2" last evening so ended up with 1.32" of rain yesterday.

[Hawkeye]

I've received 0.20" so far from this multi-day event.  The models are not promising.  They continue to show a dry band right through Cedar Rapids.

[Hawkeye]

HRW FV3 agrees there will be very little rain in Cedar Rapids..... a total bust

[westMJim]

Since 7 AM I have recorded an additional 0.63" of rain fall for a total of 1.93 for yesterday and today so far. At the current time the temperature here and at the airport is 70 the DP here is 69 and the last reading at the airport was 70.

[jcwxguy]

Close call for a customer of mine near me Nebraska City

[CentralNebWeather]

Here we go again. You would think they’d be right once this week. Right?  

 

[Clinton]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch coming soon.

Mesoscale Discussion 1090
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1156 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

   Areas affected...Much of east central into southeastern
   Kansas...southwestern/west central Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 251656Z - 251930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development is expected through
   1-3 PM CDT, including potential for isolated supercells, before
   activity begins to consolidate into organizing clusters, with strong
   wind gusts becoming the more prominent potential severe weather
   hazard later this afternoon and evening.  Timing of a possible
   severe weather watch issuance remains unclear, but one probably will
   be needed by late afternoon, if not earlier.

   DISCUSSION...Beneath modestly steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse
   rates associated with a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, a
   moist boundary layer (including lower/mid 70s F surface dew points)
   appears characterized by large CAPE (in excess of 2500-3000 J/kg),
   south of at least a couple of remnant outflow boundaries.  One,
   south/southwest of the Lake of the Ozarks into southern portions of
   the Greater Kansas City area, remains fairly prominent, with the
   influence of precipitation still in the process of diminishing. The
   other boundary, southwest of Kansas City into areas south and west
   of Great Bend, appears more subtle, but is becoming a focus for
   stronger differential surface heating.

   Meanwhile, low amplitude/weak mid-level troughing, with smaller
   scale perturbations, is in the process of overspreading the central
   Great Plains.  This appears to have provided support for ongoing
   isolated thunderstorm development across north central Oklahoma,
   with at least attempts at new initiation northeast of Hutchinson and
   Wichita, closer to the western outflow boundary.

   While spread exists among the various model output concerning
   convective evolution, there does appear a consistent signal that a
   more substantive increase in thunderstorm development is possible as
   18-20Z.  It seems most likely that this will be focused along and
   just to the cool side of the outflow boundaries, aided by lift
   associated with warm advection, and where deep-layer shear is
   strongest beneath 25-30+ kt west-southwesterly deep layer mean
   ambient flow.  Gradually, the surface boundary intersection near/
   south of the Kansas City area may become one focus for consolidating
   thunderstorm development later this afternoon.

   Initial storm development may include isolated supercells posing a
   risk for severe hail, with perhaps some potential for a tornado,
   particularly where low-level shear appears more favorable along the
   outflow boundary south/southeast of Kansas City.  However, strong
   wind gusts associated with downbursts and strengthening surface cold
   pools will become the more prominent severe hazard as convection
   grows upscale later this afternoon.

[westMJim]

With some very heavy rain in the last hour I have now gone over the 1 inch mark since 7AM and over 2.30" for yesterday and today. At this time it is still raining here with a temperature of 71 and a DP of 70.

[mlgamer]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

HRW FV3 agrees there will be very little rain in Cedar Rapids..... a total bust

It might rain here, but I have so little confidence in the forecast I went ahead and watered our outdoor plants and added water to our small (150 gal) yard pond this morning. I was hoping the expected heavy rains would take care of all that but decided not to wait any longer.

[BMT]

Been raining steadily here for about an hour.  Nice surprise

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Here we go again. You would think they’d be right once this week. Right?  

 

Well this might be a good sign for ya.

[Hawkeye]

9 minutes ago, BMT said:

Been raining steadily here for about an hour.  Nice surprise

Yeah, Marion is getting a nice cell, but on the west side of CR I'm not getting a drop.

[Clinton]

STW issued and storms are rapidly developing to my west.

[Clinton]

Very heavy rain falling. Looks like it will last for quite awhile.

[Clinton]

I have a tornado warning about four miles to my SE it is moving away from my place. However a flash flood warning is in effect as I've received two inches of rain in the last hour some places have received up to three inches of rain in the last hour.

[Minny_Weather]

Radar estimates of 2" or so out West near Carrington. Not gonna put a huge dent in the drought out there, but it at least keeps it from getting worse.

[CentralNebWeather]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

Well this might be a good sign for ya.

Still not one drop. In a thunderstorm watch but not much developing. Really frustrating. I know my relatives who farm are just shaking their head. Well we’ve been missed before and we’ll be missed again. What are you going to do?  

[CentralNebWeather]

I’m the blue circle. 5:30 pm radar. I won’t even say it.