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I picked these strawberries 🍓 earlier this morning. This is the second picking and they’re just starting. So delicious with strawberry shortcake which I had a few times now! They need good moisture th

severe weather season is winding down here over the next few weeks and it has been a dud.

Quick summary of the recent weather in my backyard: May 26: Snow showers May 29: Hard Freeze June 4: 98°F Some crazy extremes!  

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The overnight low here at my house was 66 the official low at the airport was a little cooler at 63. At this time it is cloudy and 69 here with a Dew point of 63. There was no rain here yesterday but in northeastern lower and to the east there was some storms yesterday with some high winds  and heavy rain

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36 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Only received .10 inches yesterday very disappointing. Some locations received over an inch.  Really hope the GFS is right in the extended. Today I am off to the hay field.

I would have thought you were going to get much more than that the way that line looked. I guess that is .10” more than I got. 😀

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A secondary area of heavier rain moved through MBY after the initial line moved through yesterday which gave me a total of 0.88". The next week looks pretty dry at the moment so I feel very fortunate.

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1: 4.5"), (Apr 20: 3.1"); Season total: 15.5" (87% of normal 17.8")
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I hope you don’t mind the music in the background, but this was a vid I took of what was the beginnings of the severe warned storm that eventually tracked S/SE towards ORD from where I was located.  I just had a feeling this storm cluster would deliver the goods.  The sounds of constant rumbles of thunder was a tell tale sign these storms were energized and exploding right overhead.  I wish I had a wider view but it’s all I could manage.

As the saying goes, “when it rains, it pours”….well, it sure as heck did!  ORD picked up a daily record breaking 1.50” of much needed rainfall yesterday.  Boy, it couldn’t have come in a better time.  We desperately needed a soaker.

At this time, the sun is about to rise and the DP is at a comfy 54F and temp in the mid 60’s.  Ahhh, feels great to have the window open!

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GFS for the win???  Both the Euro and GGEM are backing off the extreme Heat migrating farther east and north mid week for the MW/Lakes region.  Gotta say, the GFS/GEFS have been rock steady and doing a much better job predicting the forthcoming pattern.  I'm digging what the model is showing as the ACTIVE part of the LRC is showing up later next week after Father's Day weekend.  BTW, great wx is in the cards for fishing and boating next weekend for a lot of us.  It may actually be a bit to cool/cold for a few of you up in the Northwoods.

The EPS is playing catch up and starting to see the active and cooler pattern which the GEFS have been indicating.  Should be plentiful precip chances for the heartland with a NW Flow pattern aloft ushering in an unusually active jet stream during the middle/later part of June.  An interesting wx pattern is in the cards...the signal is there...

 

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The overnight low here 64 the official low at GRR was 65 no rain fell yesterday. After 12 days the mean for the month at Grand Rapids is now at 73.7 that is a departure of +7.3  if this was to carry to the end of the month it would place this June in 3rd place on the warmest all time list. So far this month the official high has been 90 and the low so far has been 46. Last year the mean for June was 69.6 the high for the month was 93 and the low was 42. At this time it is clear and 77 here at my house.

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TS warnings up for east coast. Their hurricane season is getting started. I'm with Joe Bastardi on keeping the highest impact areas over the east coast this season with lesser amounts of tropical influence over the Gulf and possibly one coming straight on at western Florida late year. I had that pretty well nailed down from the start. Looking to see ridging stand back up over the west coast and drought risks to continue out there. That's a megadrought starting on that map and pending La Niña is no help. 

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Not winter weather related for this forum, but pretty interesting data on severe storms and how the season has worsened and shortened for the US from a chase forum I am on.

"In short, this suggests that between 2012-2020, the entire month of June underperformed 1950-2020 climo as a whole by a large margin WRT coverage of reasonably favorable Plains environments. For early-mid June, 2012-2020 mean coverage is frequently under the 5th percentile for what you'd expect of random 10-year draws from the full 60-year distribution. Also plainly evident is the mid-late May spike in favorable environments, corresponding to what many of us have called the "compressed seasons" of recent years. Basically, it's been a good period to chasecation within the traditional May 15-30 window, but middling to awful outside of that. In fairness, early-mid April have also offered favorable environments significantly more often than the 60-year climo as a whole, although the absolute payoff to chasers so early in the year is fairly limited.

Now consider that when I'm able to add 2021 in a few weeks, the 10-year running coverage for June will very likely -- astoundingly -- fall even further. For all the talk of the sky falling and climate change wiping out all convection that can at times have an irrational, knee-jerk component, June is the segment of the core Plains season I'm really worried about going forward. This run the past 10 years is appalling from just about any perspective. When you combine the empirical data on environments over the past decade with fairly uncontroversial impacts from AGW, including warming Gulf SSTs (e.g., the NHC talking about moving the official start of Atlantic hurricane season to mid-May), there's a lot to unpack."

env_timeseries.scplainsbox.2012-2020.png

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3 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Not winter weather related for this forum, but pretty interesting data on severe storms and how the season has worsened and shortened for the US from a chase forum I am on.

"In short, this suggests that between 2012-2020, the entire month of June underperformed 1950-2020 climo as a whole by a large margin WRT coverage of reasonably favorable Plains environments. For early-mid June, 2012-2020 mean coverage is frequently under the 5th percentile for what you'd expect of random 10-year draws from the full 60-year distribution. Also plainly evident is the mid-late May spike in favorable environments, corresponding to what many of us have called the "compressed seasons" of recent years. Basically, it's been a good period to chasecation within the traditional May 15-30 window, but middling to awful outside of that. In fairness, early-mid April have also offered favorable environments significantly more often than the 60-year climo as a whole, although the absolute payoff to chasers so early in the year is fairly limited.

Now consider that when I'm able to add 2021 in a few weeks, the 10-year running coverage for June will very likely -- astoundingly -- fall even further. For all the talk of the sky falling and climate change wiping out all convection that can at times have an irrational, knee-jerk component, June is the segment of the core Plains season I'm really worried about going forward. This run the past 10 years is appalling from just about any perspective. When you combine the empirical data on environments over the past decade with fairly uncontroversial impacts from AGW, including warming Gulf SSTs (e.g., the NHC talking about moving the official start of Atlantic hurricane season to mid-May), there's a lot to unpack."

env_timeseries.scplainsbox.2012-2020.png

I think they actually need to have solid science to go with this stuff instead of "ooh look! Be afraid!" We can all poke at the what and change the rules, but I think they need to wait before creating more confusion and chaos in things than they already are. Not all changes are good or justified. Some stuff was just right and needed left alone.

They could probably do part of the 1980s that way. Then we had the 1989-1995 years where convection roared.

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Hello from Houston! Currently 96/74/109.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 1 (Last: 6/7)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1 (Last: 6/7)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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It was a rather warm morning at about 4:00am when I got up when the temp was 72F and a wind out of the WSW.  The CF just pushed through as winds are now coming out of the WNW and temps dropped into the upper 60's....ahh, refreshing!

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-90.76,40.66,3000

 

 

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Looking out into Father's Day weekend, there is a storm system that's brewing up for the tail end of the weekend that is likely to put a damper on outdoor activities for some of us on Father's Day.  Although, on the bright side, this is prob shaping up to become a widespread soaker for the corn belt region.  Last nights 00z Euro advertising a good soaking...

1.png

 

Interestingly, I just realized we will welcome the Summer Solstice late Sunday evening....and tracking a summer time cutter???  A fascinating wx pattern along with an unusually strong piece of energy that looks to eject out of the Rockies later this weekend and develop in the Plains/MW and cut up into the GL's.  Things are going to get interesting next week.

 

Meantime, the models are all honing in on a powerhouse NE PAC ridge in the week 2 period...

2.png

 

 

 

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As expected the 10 day warm period is now over. As is the norm in our part of the world it generally dose not stay either very warm or very cold for real long periods of time. The upcoming week looks to have several days near and even below average. Now while generally the same can be said for rain fall in our area so far all major reporting locations are well below average rain fall. Not sure how long that will last but that too will come to a end at some point. The overnight low here at my house was 62 and at this time it is partly cloudy and 63. There was no rain fall here over the weekend. So it is back to watering the grass and garden. So far the tomato plants are doing well and I have "baby" tomatoes on several of my plants and others are flowering well. The grass is green yet in my yard but in places that are not watered there is now some brown showing up.

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Hot week ahead with humidity increasing.  Beautiful morning here, the low dropped to 64as we've had a little break in the humidity.  It is getting dry for the spots who missed the rain Friday night, hope we can get some more widespread rain soon.

Tab2FileL.png

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11 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

DB6A019B-2E3B-4CC7-8475-EDE043B44AFD.jpeg

Question here would be also if we are just simply seeing how much better things are built than 70 years ago. I don't honestly think the eras can be measured against one another.

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

Looking out into Father's Day weekend, there is a storm system that's brewing up for the tail end of the weekend that is likely to put a damper on outdoor activities for some of us on Father's Day.  Although, on the bright side, this is prob shaping up to become a widespread soaker for the corn belt region.  Last nights 00z Euro advertising a good soaking...

1.png

 

Interestingly, I just realized we will welcome the Summer Solstice late Sunday evening....and tracking a summer time cutter???  A fascinating wx pattern along with an unusually strong piece of energy that looks to eject out of the Rockies later this weekend and develop in the Plains/MW and cut up into the GL's.  Things are going to get interesting next week.

 

Meantime, the models are all honing in on a powerhouse NE PAC ridge in the week 2 period...

2.png

 

 

 

That's the harbinger for future seasons I've been talking about. It's 2 weeks early (in my mind) which makes any lasting heat over the central conus impossible going forward. I had us at least getting summer thru the 4th but this is fast.

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Hot week ahead with humidity increasing.  Beautiful morning here, the low dropped to 64as we've had a little break in the humidity.  It is getting dry for the spots who missed the rain Friday night, hope we can get some more widespread rain soon.

Tab2FileL.png

I drove around town and the country yesterday. Starting to see a little stress. Most irrigation has started already or will this week. My son is laying out pipe this morning with relatives. People with sprinkler systems are running them now it appears. 

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20 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

That's the harbinger for future seasons I've been talking about. It's 2 weeks early (in my mind) which makes any lasting heat over the central conus impossible going forward. I had us at least getting summer thru the 4th but this is fast.

 

21 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

That's the harbinger for future seasons I've been talking about. It's 2 weeks early (in my mind) which makes any lasting heat over the central conus impossible going forward. I had us at least getting summer thru the 4th but this is fast.

I still think there is a window for a burst of heat around here right around the open of July.  After that, however, I’m seeing signals of a major trough developing across the central CONUS.

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14 minutes ago, Tom said:

 

I still think there is a window for a burst of heat around here right around the open of July.  After that, however, I’m seeing signals of a major trough developing across the central CONUS.

I'm still looking for it too, but all signs point to it being a transient heat blast at best now before re anchoring in the west.

It'll be hot but a non-event to the cool we'll see after it. That's the better way to say it. 

That ridge/pattern has had eyes on the SW since the first one in March warmed us back out of winter. With no Niño to knock it around, it's a semi-stable block.

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I sure hope the Euro has the right idea for Sunday.  That would be a welcome sight.  

The GFS has a decent MCS event for MN into WI Thursday night into Friday AM, and appears to have the classic look to it where it drops almost due south and then clips eastern Iowa and parts of northern IL as well.  It has shown this the past few runs now.

 

prateptype_cat.us_mw.png

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Have a high of 101 in the grids for Thursday. 100s are actually pretty rare here. Only hit 100+ 5x since 2013.

Crazy to think you all are going to have a hotter summer in actual temperatures than I will. Crazy stuff. This will be a very hot week for a lot of folks, as advertised right now.

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DVN saying we may get more active after this week.

 

.CLIMATE...
Week 2...June 22-28...the CPC outlook shows odds favoring near to above
normal precipitation in this time period. Model indications focus mainly
on the early part of the week in our area where northwest flow may set
up an active MCS pattern in the Upper and Middle Mississippi
River Valley. But it is too early to predict what sort of impact
this may have on developing drought conditions.

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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