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39 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Southern Iowa has been upgraded to “enhanced risk” mainly for hail. I’m on the northern fringe.  Let’s see if the SPC gets it right this time.

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Headed down to lake rathbun this weekend.  Hope they get it right as well!

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2 hours ago, Sparky said:

Southern Iowa has been upgraded to “enhanced risk” mainly for hail. I’m on the northern fringe.  Let’s see if the SPC gets it right this time.

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Well, models has performed  horribly  to me.  I would be quite content with a inch of rain tonight.  Set up of west to east stalled front and wobbling front near Missouri  border is usually  good for my area. But the tropical  system and  horrid drought  to north and west doesn't  bode well.  I fear just more hype.  I will  let you  know what happens here.

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Looking at yesterday's summary, McCook had the highest temp in the state at 108. Next in line is 106 at Grand Island followed by several 105s. Today almost feels pleasant in the upper 80s, cloudy, and humid. That's when you know summer has gone on too long lol. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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Storms are trying to develop, but having a hard time so far. I wish they would really erupt, and they might soon. Not sure why so much dry air is just beneath the mid level cloud layer, but I could see it with the virga like clouds this evening. A few sprinkles so far.

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5 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Well, models has performed  horribly  to me.  I would be quite content with a inch of rain tonight.  Set up of west to east stalled front and wobbling front near Missouri  border is usually  good for my area. But the tropical  system and  horrid drought  to north and west doesn't  bode well.  I fear just more hype.  I will  let you  know what happens here.

Better storms just starting up now south of Des Moines. These look more substantial and probably will be the main show eventually. I think you’re in a better spot for storms!

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1003.html

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Those storms that formed in IA/IL last night I'm sure were something else if you were watching them to your south.  That light show was probably gorgeous.  Lot's of wind/hail storm reports from them last night.

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My new A/C was finally installed and working by midnight last night!  Gosh, I'm so thankful the techs committed to doing the job so quickly...how did people live without it back in the day???  Crazy.

 

Anyhow, ORD tacked on yet another 90F day yesterday which makes it #8 for the season.  We'll try to do it again today and tomorrow...more severe wx on deck for Father's Day???  The CAM's are showing signs of a nasty line forming over or near the IA/IL border and tracking east in the afternoon/evening on Sunday.

SPC has a large area of slight risk but I think they'll be upping the ante...

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Another good soaking looking likely for the region on Sunday...

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You gotta love what the models are cooking up for the eastern Sub over the course of the next 7 days.  Multiple chances for Severe Wx as the pattern is ripe for explosive development.  The massive heat dome out west will build east and provide the fuel to those of us on the NE periphery.  I'm liking the chances for a nocturnal MCS to develop over the same areas that are getting hit of late across MN/IA/WI/IL and then races S/SE into MI/IN region...smack dab where the drought has been growing...nature playing her balancing act???

00z EPS...next 10 days...

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How do we finish the month of June???  The LR forecasting clues suggested a major trough to develop across the Sub and it appears likely that a lot of us will enjoy a bit of a cool spell as well as plentiful chances of precip.  #VolatilityReigns

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The overnight low here was 63 at this time it is cloudy and 65.The official overnight low at GRR so far has been 65. There are a lot of clouds to the south of here and there was a red sunrise and there is some rain off to the west and southwest of GR. So far this month the mean is 72.4 that is good for a departure of +5.1 so the month is still well above average in the temperature department. The official rain fall for the month at GRR is now at 1.30" and that is below the average of 2.40" We should catch up on that rain fall amounts today and again tomorrow. It has just started raining here.

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What a night down here.  2.15 in my gages. But friend in albia 2.9. Friend near eldon 2.79.  Going to our  other property  near Ottumwa, looks like a easy 3 inches.   Creek got to 3/4 bank full, the highest since  last sept when we had the 8 inch week.   No hail, slight wind damage. Lost power 5 minutes.  Most lawns never really burned up here.  After so many localized droughts here in past years. This is a unbelievable  run. Somehow  Ottumwa  has fended off drought  now since Aug 2018..  regular  timely rains. Good for business!

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The weekend looks hot and dry with only slight chances of rain today and a better shot tomorrow. It is very dry here, my father in-law stoped planting beens because the soil was to dry. It we get some rain soon he will resume if not he will hope his corn can make It.

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Hoping one of these clusters can produce. I'm at .08in for the month.

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Pattern looks promising for your area throughout next week...I think a lot of us will eat away at the deficits and the drought will ease.  

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

Those storms that formed in IA/IL last night I'm sure were something else if you were watching them to your south.  That light show was probably gorgeous.  Lot's of wind/hail storm reports from them last night.

1.gif

 

My new A/C was finally installed and working by midnight last night!  Gosh, I'm so thankful the techs committed to doing the job so quickly...how did people live without it back in the day???  Crazy.

 

Anyhow, ORD tacked on yet another 90F day yesterday which makes it #8 for the season.  We'll try to do it again today and tomorrow...more severe wx on deck for Father's Day???  The CAM's are showing signs of a nasty line forming over or near the IA/IL border and tracking east in the afternoon/evening on Sunday.

SPC has a large area of slight risk but I think they'll be upping the ante...

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Another good soaking looking likely for the region on Sunday...

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I can confirm the light show was gorgeous. The window in my bedroom faces south and it was an incredible display of lightning. It lasted for hours. Very cool. Sadly we didn’t receive any rain here. I’m not sure if we’ve had more than a few hundredths this month. Hopefully that changes tomorrow 

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

I can confirm the light show was gorgeous. The window in my bedroom faces south and it was an incredible display of lightning. It lasted for hours. Very cool. Sadly we didn’t receive any rain here. I’m not sure if we’ve had more than a few hundredths this month. Hopefully that changes tomorrow 

Those are the type of summer nights I love, esp with a strong southerly breeze at night...glad you enjoyed it, but don't worry about precip, your in a great spot for tomorrow and the rest of next week.  We're gonna make up in the precip dept in a hurry.

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5 hours ago, Clinton said:

Hoping one of these clusters can produce. I'm at .08in for the month.

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Yep, it’s rained 1x here this entire month. Thankfully was a bit more at .55”, but still not enough. Been watering the lawn for the past week now.

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6 hours ago, Clinton said:

The weekend looks hot and dry with only slight chances of rain today and a better shot tomorrow. It is very dry here, my father in-law stoped planting beens because the soil was to dry. It we get some rain soon he will resume if not he will hope his corn can make It.

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My neighbor has beans laying in dry dirt waiting on rain for awhile now. My brother planted deeper so they’re up nicely,but really need rain soon.

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Got a new computer and forgot to bookmark this site on my old computer. 

Anyway, June has been ridiculously dry around here. I am really hoping we can get two rounds of severe weather tomorrow. Looks like some strong storms should move through here in the morning and then severe weather later in the day. Heavy rainfall would be great!

I am getting really tired of this hot and dry weather. 

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I'm getting a bit concerned about tomorrow.  Models are suggesting we could end up with just a low amount of rain from a dying MCS in the morning, followed by the evening storms mostly firing/congealing southeast of my area.  It would suck to not get a solid rain event out of this.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

I'm getting a bit concerned about tomorrow.  Models are suggesting we could end up with just a low amount of rain from a dying MCS in the morning, followed by the evening storms mostly firing/congealing southeast of my area.  It would suck to not get a solid rain event out of this.

Yeah really hard to tell till it’s happening. 

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37 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Yeah really hard to tell till it’s happening. 

18z run of models is fairly inconclusive for tomorrow. Quite a spread in solutions. Hopefully 00z runs bring a little more clarity. But I’m definitely a little concerned as well 

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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Eye of the hurricane right over Norton, Kansas. 80 mph winds following the platte river. My garden definitely doesn’t want that…butI will gladly take the rain! 
 

Until 1130 PM CDT.

* At 1044 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Wilcox to near Campbell to 6 miles northeast of
  Inavale to 6 miles south of Red Cloud to 9 miles west of Ionia,
  moving northeast at 55 mph.

  These are very dangerous storms.

  HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Law enforcement. Law enforcement reported widespread
           damage across Phillips County. Additionsly at 10:35pm 83
           MPH was reported at Smith Center, Kansas Airport.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect
           considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles.
           Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

4C293369-7C4D-4420-AAEF-A71C8065756D.png

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A rather delightful lake breeze kicked in late yesterday afternoon just around sun set which ushered in a cool and comfortable airmass.  In the summer, this is an added bonus living closer to the lake...not so much during the Spring or in the Fall when your border line RN/SN...the perks of living in the Chicago area.

 

It's a very comfy 61F this morning as there is a pocket of chilly air up in the GL's region.  I see some upper 40's showing up in the U.P.  Great start to this wonderful day....Happy Father's Day!!!!  I know there are a number of you on here who have kids.  Enjoy the day with family as we officially welcome in Summer..

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Woah, this is turning into a significant severe wx threat today for the lower lakes region...

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I'm rather concerned in the strong wording...seasons biggest Severe Wx threat on the table for Chitown and the local region...

Quote

The disruptive potential of this interaction is unknown.
   Even so, it appears a corridor of strong instability should evolve
   from northern IL into southern lower MI. Approaching convectively
   induced short-wave trough, strong heating, and the potential for a
   low-level confluence zone to be draped across this region suggest
   the potential for significant severe. Have opted to extend the ENH
   Risk downstream across southern lower MI and adjacent portions of
   northern IN/northwest OH as forecast soundings are impressively
   buoyant and strongly sheared. Profiles favor supercells but the
   early-day MCS will likely continue, in some form, through the day as
   it spreads downstream. If supercells evolve, tornadoes and large
   hail threat will increase with this activity. Otherwise, damaging
   winds can be expected.

 

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The models are dialing up some heft precip totals far and near...here is the 00z Euro for today's event...

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Then through Friday...I'm still thinking a strong nocturnal MCS is on table Thu pm...

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Much of the rain in Iowa comes from the morning MCS, which is mostly just a big blob of light to moderate rain.  Unfortunately, the big MCS also ruins the potential for later today.  Most models don't show much developing across Iowa.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I thought last year was HOT in PHX...this year is off to an even hotter start...Holy smokes!  #SWSizzle...looking out in the LR, the much anticipated Monsoon is showing signs of igniting.  Unlike last year, this year, there will be a Monsoon season.

Image

 

 

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The morning rain is drying up as it tries to progress toward the MS river.  It has been very light here.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Happy Farhers Day to the dad's out there. No rain here overnight and chances this evening look ify. Hope the Euro that Tom posted comes to fruition I'll be putting more water on the garden today.

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Even though we aren't getting much from this morning's disturbance, it's nice to have a pleasantly cloudy and wet morning (windows open, sound and smell of light rain). We had not had one in a long time.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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34 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The morning rain is drying up as it tries to progress toward the MS river.  It has been very light here.

I’m hoping for some pm sunshine which would help destabilize. Only 0.10” so far. 

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Happy Fathers Day!  We will have to see how todays possible storm event plays out. The overnight low here was 58 the official overnight low at GRR was 59. At this time it is clear and 71 here at my house.

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Everytime it looks like the heavier rain is going to move in here, it weakens. Last check I only had .05”. I really hope we at least get a quarter inch. But that may not happen. Very disappointing so far. 

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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