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Approaching 24 hours in which it’s been raining for over 90% of the time here. Just glorious and way overdue. Moderate rain currently.

Here are those pictures, I think my favorite is the one where the sunset almost seems to be illuminating the clouds from underneath  

Russell Wilson showed up at my son's flag football game today. Apparently his son plays on one of the other teams in the league. My son lost his game but said it didn't matter since he got to meet Rus

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Yet another record warm/dry month incoming. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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19 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Looks like another heatwave in the middle of June. Likely no meaningful precipitation through at least the first half of the month.

We know there will be no meaningful precip until mid September now. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Probably heading for another top tier warm June and 30+ 90 degree days in the valley. Salem kicked things off yesterday.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Redding set their all time May record high of 109 yesterday as the climate crisis continues to accelerate.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Looks like a wet and chilly weekend up here... highs about 10 degrees below normal with rain both days.     Models are showing a distinct rain shadow from SEA down to Tacoma though.    Hopefully the models are right with the ULL sinking south off the CA coast next week... maybe bring some rain down south and bring warmer weather up here.   Unfortunately... the end result will probably just be more rain for western WA.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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You guys always assume the worst. Better to assume the worst so you’re not disappointed if we roast all summer...and can be pleasantly surprised if it ends up being ok I guess? 
 Anyways had a low temp of 55 this morning. Warmest overnight low temp so far this year to kick off the summer. 64 now It’s about 10 degrees warmer than this time yesterday. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.14”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.02”

Warmest high temp-84

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On a brighter note... summer is starting off feeling properly like summer here.   Feels like the middle of the day out there already on this warm and sunny morning.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5FC95F3C-1287-4EC2-BDC2-1BF043DAE068.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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We had 11.24”, average is 19.64. Terrible, but not as bad relative to average as the valley. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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52 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like a wet and chilly weekend up here... highs about 10 degrees below normal with rain both days.     Models are showing a distinct rain shadow from SEA down to Tacoma though.    Hopefully the models are right with the ULL sinking south off the CA coast next week... maybe bring some rain down south and bring warmer weather up here.   Unfortunately... the end result will probably just be more rain for western WA.

OLM and BLI just had their 2nd driest spring on record, UIL had their 3rd, and SEA had their 4th. Vancouver, WA had their 2nd driest in 150 years of records.

Western WA still just can't catch a break when it comes to excessive precip.

 

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yep. It's happened as recently as 2011.

Interesting. I guess that’s where I’m placing my bets this year. Late summer/early autumn still looks horrific on low pass forcing/SSTA analogs.

July meanwhile looks..decent? Hopefully.

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9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

OLM and BLI just had their 2nd driest spring on record, UIL had their 3rd, and SEA had their 4th. Vancouver, WA had their 2nd driest in 150 years of records.

Western WA still just can't catch a break when it comes to excessive precip.  

 

Yeah... its been a drier than normal spring.   And yet SEA is just barely below for the year to this point.    Ebb and flow.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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28 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

 

 

5FC95F3C-1287-4EC2-BDC2-1BF043DAE068.jpeg

1924 and 1939 are the only two years to rival this one for the Portland area.

Spring 2021 had 3.83" in downtown Portland, so significantly wetter than PDX.

Spring 1939 had 3.92" and spring 1924 had 2.76".

In 1924 it basically stayed bone dry until September. At least it got cold the following winter.

In 1939 it was actually a respectably wet JJA, but the trade off was a bone dry fall and then a shitso Nino winter.

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11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Interesting. I guess that’s where I’m placing my bets this year. Late summer/early autumn still looks horrific on low pass forcing/SSTA analogs.

July meanwhile looks..decent? Hopefully.

I doubt we see any cool months here in the next several. Soil moisture is basically nonexistent at this point which means any surface heating opportunities will likely overachieve by 3-5 degrees relative to our expected boundary layer conditions. 

It'll probably take a seasonal flip and wavelength shakeup for that to really change, too. Maybe finally see a wet month sometime in the fall, at which point cloudcover is more a conduit for warm anomalies. 

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14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Interesting. I guess that’s where I’m placing my bets this year. Late summer/early autumn still looks horrific on low pass forcing/SSTA analogs.

July meanwhile looks..decent? Hopefully.

That’s a worst case outcome if it happens. Late summer early fall heatwaves are always the worst. We will see how this summer plays out. I Get the feeling it’ll be warmer and drier than last summer and the one before tbh...but you never really know. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.14”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.02”

Warmest high temp-84

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

Dark times on the forum as we enter our most destructive season of the year.

Not wrong as meteorologists weighs in. The keyword here is “could” —- it could be bad but it could be not as destructive as well. 

https://komonews.com/weather/it-could-be-pretty-bad-fire-danger-rises-in-washington-this-week

This also isn’t fear mongering as it’s backed up by scientific data that the West and SW (yes people, let’s try to be inclusive here) are incredibly dry and can light up at any time.  
 

let’s hope for a wet month. 
 

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At PDX, the current dry regime began in May 2017 following back to back historically wet rainy seasons.

Starting with that time, 34/49 (69.3%) months have been drier than average there. That breakdown includes 4/5 months in 2021, 8/12 months in 2020, 7/12 in 2019, 10/12 in 2018, and 5/8 in 2017.

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21 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I doubt we see any cool months here in the next several. Soil moisture is basically nonexistent at this point which means any surface heating opportunities will likely overachieve by 3-5 degrees relative to our expected boundary layer conditions. 

It'll probably take a seasonal flip and wavelength shakeup for that to really change, too. Maybe finally see a wet month sometime in the fall, at which point cloudcover is more a conduit for warm anomalies. 

Will yield to you on that since I’m still learning how the climate works out there.

But I do like the chances for solid upper level troughing late June and much of July out there, even if it still ends up warmer at the surface. With the tropical circulation resembling a canonical to west based -ENSO (w/ upper level divergence over IO/EHEM) an Aleutian/GOA ridge pattern should be favored. So that would be forced externally from PNW.

But these midsummer -PNA/IO forcing regimes tend to dissociate in August thanks to emergent ASM dynamics (which can mimic +ENSO effect on WTs). Even the deepest ones often do so. And 2021 is nowhere near as established as 2011 was. It’s weak w/ intraseasonal dominance over low pass.

So if I had to guess, temps at the top of the boundary layer will probably run slightly below average for M/J/J trimonthly period, but A/S/O looks hideous.

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Of course there are conduits available to avoid that outcome. But I think it’d be a challenge.

Ironically, if the elongated WC/IO standing wave is weaker than I expect (which would mean warmer midsummer) then there might not be a foundation to trigger the change in August circulation and it ends up cooler.

But zero chance I can predict that from present state..more like throwing s**t at the wall and hoping it sticks.

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Meanwhile... we have a very deep and cold trough moving in soon.    

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3067200 (1).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Of course there are conduits available to avoid that outcome. But I think it’d be a challenge.

Ironically, if the elongated WC/IO standing wave is weaker than I expect (which would mean warmer midsummer) then there might not be a foundation to trigger the change in August circulation and it ends up cooler.

But zero chance I can predict that from present state..more like throwing s**t at the wall and hoping it sticks.

thanks for the parentheses explanation after your language. More of this please 

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Less than 3" here for all 3 spring months combined. Now we enter our long, hot and dry summer. I am not encouraged and am still fully prepared to see massive destruction this Aug-Sept.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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29 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

That’s a worst case outcome if it happens. Late summer early fall heatwaves are always the worst. We will see how this summer plays out. I Get the feeling it’ll be warmer and drier than last summer and the one before tbh...but you never really know. 

Hard to bet against dry, especially in the southwest where things look as ugly as possible imo. But without a dominant West Pacific Warm Pool - Dateline component on the low freq/seasonal scale, big western ridges would have to manifest through intraseasonal forcing which is highly transient.

But that teleconnection can change in a heartbeat late in the summer and into autumn. Which is what I’m worried about in my gut.

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15 minutes ago, Phil said:

Will yield to you on that since I’m still learning how the climate works out there.

But I do like the chances for solid upper level troughing late June and much of July out there, even if it still ends up warmer at the surface. With the tropical circulation resembling a canonical to west based -ENSO (w/ upper level divergence over IO/EHEM) an Aleutian/GOA ridge pattern should be favored. So that would be forced externally from PNW.

But these midsummer -PNA/IO forcing regimes tend to dissociate in August thanks to emergent ASM dynamics (which can mimic +ENSO effect on WTs). Even the deepest ones often do so. And 2021 is nowhere near as established as 2011 was.

So if I had to guess, temps at the top of the boundary layer will probably run slightly below average for M/J/J trimonthly period, but A/S/O looks hideous.

I'm most curious on how much new ground we can break in August. The 1991-2020 averages are pretty crooked for it. In theory it would be pretty easy even in relatively recent terms to undercut that (PDX would now have been "cooler than average" in 11/13 Augusts from 1999-2011). But the ante-upping has been most impressive recently and it seems to be the month most insistent on leading the climate change charge and outpacing everything else.

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11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I'm most curious on how much new ground we can break in August. The 1991-2020 averages are pretty crooked for it. In theory it would be pretty easy even in relatively recent terms to undercut that (PDX would now have been "cooler than average" in 11/13 Augusts from 1999-2011). But the ante-upping has been most impressive recently and it seems to be the month most insistent on leading the climate change charge and outpacing everything else.

There are climate related reasons (chicken-egg stuff aside) for the changes in August across western US. Rooted in changes to z-cell seasonality and the Asian summer monsoon (which go hand in hand).

End up with a broader and slightly later peak in boreal summer state of tropical-subtropical cell network. In some respects the entire seasonal cycle has shifted later by 2+ weeks compared to the middle 20th century. I think?

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The soil moisture makes a huge difference. We had almost 5" of rain in May, which has really freshened plant growth, and added to the soil moisture thankfully. The past couple of days we have seen some massive temp differences compared to SLE, usually we will be 6-8 degrees cooler, but yesterday we only hit 78, while SLE hit 90. Sunday the high was 74 compared to 86 at SLE. Typically if SLE is hitting 90 we will be in the low-mid 80s. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Meanwhile... we have a very deep and cold trough moving in soon.    

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3067200 (1).png

00z Euro and GEM showed a whopping 0.02" here with that. And less than 0.2" from Seattle southward.

Gotta just hold out hope that our levees hold.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

There are climate related reasons (chicken-egg stuff aside) for the changes in August across western US. Rooted in changes to z-cell seasonality and the Asian summer monsoon (which go hand in hand).

End up with a broader and slightly later peak in boreal summer state of tropical-subtropical cell network. In some respects the entire seasonal cycle has shifted later by 2+ weeks compared to the middle 20th century. I think?

Completely anecdotal here... but in browsing the historical records locally going back to 1895 it sure seems like summer used to peak earlier.   June was more reliably nice and September was more reliably cool and wet in the first part of the 20th century.    Not in every year... but it does seem like it has shifted later overall.  

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14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Meanwhile... we have a very deep and cold trough moving in soon.    

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3067200 (1).png

Pretty common for early June. GFS only showing about .75" of rain with that here which would put us at or slightly below average by June 10th. Our record for June precip is almost 9", with many years in the period of record at 5-6"+.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Completely anecdotal here... but in browsing the historical records locally going back to 1895 it sure seems like summer used to peak earlier.   June was more reliably nice and September was more reliably cool and wet.    Not in every year... but it does seem like it has shifted later overall.  

That doesn’t surprise me at all. Have noticed something similar during the cold season here. December used to be reliably cold and snowy. Now March averages more snowfall than December. It’s an autumn month now, and winter runs from January to March. 

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

There are climate related reasons (chicken-egg stuff aside) for the changes in August across western US. Rooted in changes to z-cell seasonality and the Asian summer monsoon (which go hand in hand).

End up with a broader and slightly later peak in boreal summer state of tropical-subtropical cell network. In some respects the entire seasonal cycle has shifted later by 2+ weeks compared to the middle 20th century. I think?

Winter and summer definitely have waffled more towards being later in the last decade, at least with regards to August consistently being hotter than July and February consistently being colder than January. Probably a large cyclical component as well.

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Winter and summer definitely have waffled more towards being later in the last decade, at least with regards to August consistently being hotter than July and February consistently being colder than January. Probably a large cyclical component as well.

Good point... winter has shifted later as well.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The GEM has been trending farther offshore with the trough by the middle of next week.    I thought the 12Z run would come in line with the other models, but it did not.    Sometimes the GEM does surprisingly well at catching onto different solutions earlier.     It will be interesting to see if the 12Z ECMWF goes in that direction.     It seems like when the GEM is onto something then the ECMWF quickly follows suit.      The GEM can also be frequently lost so it might not mean anything.  

gem_z500a_namer_33.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This cicada noise is now loud enough make our ears ring if we’re outside more than 20 minutes at a time. Impossible to hold a conversation without raising your voice. Complete insanity.

Much, much, much larger emergence than 2004 here. Like, at least double the size. Low flying planes and helicopters are completely drowned out.

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Overall the climate has shifted significantly warmer. That's the main takeaway as climate change continues to accelerate. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The GEM has been trending farther offshore with the trough by the middle of next week.    I thought the 12Z run would come in line with the other models, but it did not.    Sometimes the GEM does surprisingly well at catching onto different solutions earlier.     It will be interesting to see if the 12Z ECMWF goes in that direction.     It seems like when the GEM is onto something then the ECMWF quickly follows suit.      The GEM can also be frequently lost so it might not mean anything.  

gem_z500a_namer_33.png

Still standing by my earlier prediction. Transient troughy window followed by more ridging mid-June.

More sustained troughing doesn’t arrive until the last 7-10 days of the month.

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