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June 2021 Pacific Northwest Obs


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ECMWF had a cool bias today in PDX. Forecast was 106 on the 12z this morning. 12z GFS forecast was 107.

Starting to think the GFS might actually be more accurate these next couple of days which is really hard to comprehend.

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 0.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 0.0"

Highest snow depth: 0.0"

Coldest high: 47.0º

Coldest low: 40.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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14 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

I've been on this forum for years and I have to ask a stupid question. I understand how the models work, I understand the ensembles, I get the biases, I understand the major and minor PNW weather quirks from the common PSCA and Frasier River outflow, to the effect the easterly winds have on communities east of Lake Washington, etc etc. Lived here my whole life, loved weather my whole life.

So it is WILD that I have to ask this question, but what does it exactly mean when you guys say "we need to see if the forecast verifies." Is it just a way of saying, you want to see the next few model runs to see if it holds true, or is there an actual process that a forecast gets verified?

Thanks for letting me ask something that seems to simple, year after year I see it and never ask. 

We obviously know that forecasting temperature outputs can be quite tricky so there’s no way for sure how accurate a forecast is until it actually happens. 

that being said, for me, when I say “I hope this does or does not verify” or “we’ll see if it verifies” — it simply means I like to see more runs A LOT more runs… because a single model run does not do anything for me and how seriously I take it because bad data or noise can happen at any time. So we have to look for trends and consistency from within each runs. As the models continues to run and we can see that the trends continue to lean one way or another, we can assume there is some consistency, and the likelihood of it verifying become greater. It helps a lot when we have other models out there to compare the data with as well to make such assessment. 
 

In the end, there is an actual process in all of this, at least for me. A good example of this type is how the GFS was the first model to catch on this current heatwave and many of us at the time continuously say it won’t verify because there were no other models support. But as time go on and more runs were in and how it stood its ground, it became quite obvious that it’ll likely verify. How accurate it is in terms of exact temperature outputs is just a matter of details but there is an overall bigger picture and pattern that I look at for verification. 

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SEA was 1F away from tying the all time record. No worries though record keepers, you’ll have your chance. 

Today completely sucked because it totally blew the forecast high out of the waters by a good 7-8F. 

If it’s like this for tomorrow and Monday, we’ll be looking at 110 tmr and 120 Monday. YUCK! 

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38 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Phew!  One hot day down and no serious problems with us, our plants, or our pets.  Thankfully tomorrow only looks a little hotter than today, but then Monday looks downright ugly.  You almost have to think SEA has a real shot at about 114 given the latest numbers.  We're just going to have to grit our teeth to get through that one then it's over. 

Got to an even 100 here today BTW.

Early next week looks pretty nasty. 

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7 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

We obviously know that forecasting temperature outputs can be quite tricky so there’s no way for sure how accurate a forecast is until it actually happens. 

that being said, for me, when I say “I hope this does or does not verify” or “we’ll see if it verifies” — it simply means I like to see more runs A LOT more runs… because a single model run does not do anything for me and how seriously I take it because bad data or noise can happen at any time. So we have to look for trends and consistency from within each runs. As the models continues to run and we can see that the trends continue to lean one way or another, we can assume there is some consistency, and the likelihood of it verifying become greater. It helps a lot when we have other models out there to compare the data with as well to make such assessment. 
 

In the end, there is an actual process in all of this, at least for me. A good example of this type is how the GFS was the first model to catch on this current heatwave and many of us at the time continuously say it won’t verify because there were no other models support. But as time go on and more runs were in and how it stood its ground, it became quite obvious that it’ll likely verify. How accurate it is in terms of exact temperature outputs is just a matter of details but there is an overall bigger picture and pattern that I look at for verification. 

Thank you so much. That totally makes sense and that is what I was assuming. Especially because I did some research trying to find if there was some **verified** stamp of approval for a forecast and, alas, there is not. But that makes sense, I was just hung up on the word 'verify,' thinking it might be an actual defined term outside of its common usage.

I appreciate the thorough response. :)

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6 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

SEA was 1F away from tying the all time record. No worries though record keepers, you’ll have your chance. 

Today completely sucked because it totally blew the forecast high out of the waters by a good 7-8F. 

If it’s like this for tomorrow and Monday, we’ll be looking at 110 tmr and 120 Monday. YUCK! 

Lol I’m thinking 105 tomorrow and 110 for SEA…I just don’t think 112+ is possible…especially temps like 115-120. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lol I’m thinking 105 tomorrow and 110 for SEA…I just don’t think 112+ is possible…especially temps like 115-120. 

Yeah, I’m thinking the same thing also, mainly because the heat settled in a lot faster than expected and now that it’s officially here, hopefully there won’t be much a massive spike the new few days compared to the forecast highs. 

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1 minute ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Yeah, I’m thinking the same thing also, mainly because the heat settled in a lot faster than expected and now that it’s officially here, hopefully there won’t be much a massive spike the new few days compared to the forecast highs. 

It has underperformed here. We don't generally benefit from downsloping. I ain't complaining.

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Just for a fun little comparison, PDX on 7/21/06 at 8pm had a spread of 95/62.  The next morning’s low was 74, although there was cloud cover in play…

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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What is crazy is that after we endured today and these next 2 days coming up... we get at least 2 more weeks of warm to hot weather with no end in sight.    It might get within a few degrees of normal at some point in there... but the persistence of the warmth is just unbelievable.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

What is crazy is that after we endured today and these next 2 days coming up... we get at least 2 more weeks of warm to hot weather with no end in sight.    It might get within a few degrees of normal at some point in there... but the persistence of the warmth is just unbelievable.  

Phil says it will cool off eventually and I’d bet good money that is right.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

What is crazy is that after we endured today and these next 2 days coming up... we get at least 2 more weeks of warm to hot weather with no end in sight.    It might get within a few degrees of normal at some point in there... but the persistence of the warmth is just unbelievable.  

Good old fashioned summer.🌞

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4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Phil says it will cool off eventually and I’d bet good money that is right.

Anything below 100 will seem frigid now... the bar has been raised!  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Down to 91F at 8:30pm. Arctic blast underway for the night as we speak! 

How are the dewpoints in  the George? Is Rob going to pull an all nighter number crunching? 

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24 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Phil says it will cool off eventually and I’d bet good money that is right.

In his land the PNW is ALWAYS under constant troughs.  I wish I lived in Phil's version of the PNW.

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7 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Down to 91F at 8:30pm. Arctic blast underway for the night as we speak! 

For some reason it's down to 82 in North Bend and 80 here.   After a high of 101 here.   I am sitting on the deck and it actually is pretty comfortable.  Did not expect that... but could be because we are surrounded by forest and not pavement.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For some reason it's down to 82 in North Bend and 80 here.   After a high of 101 here.   I am sitting on the deck and it actually is pretty comfortable.  Did not expect that... but could be because we are surrounded by forest and not pavement.

83* here and windows now opened.  90* upstairs in the house still 

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14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For some reason it's down to 82 in North Bend and 80 here.   After a high of 101 here.   I am sitting on the deck and it actually is pretty comfortable.  Did not expect that... but could be because we are surrounded by forest and not pavement.

Yeah it’s pleasant outside here now as well. We had dinner out on the deck. 

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Still 95F. Feels like Texas.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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53 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Yeah, I’m thinking the same thing also, mainly because the heat settled in a lot faster than expected and now that it’s officially here, hopefully there won’t be much a massive spike the new few days compared to the forecast highs. 

It's like pre heating the oven. It will now be even easier and faster to reach higher Temps than today. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Looks to be quite the sharp gradient on Monday. Areas near that boundary will absolutely bake.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

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Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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7 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Monday is going to make us beg for mercy. 107 at 11am in Portland. 106 in Tacoma. Tomorrow is no picnic either. 100 by 10am in Portland. I don’t know how our native plants are trees are going to survive this summer.

It was only a matter of time before we had to face this nightmare.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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