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2 minutes ago, Link said:

Watch Oregon get shafted with nothing but high clouds and drizzle at best.

I think the rains coming down there. It’s looking pretty good right now. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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Approaching 24 hours in which it’s been raining for over 90% of the time here. Just glorious and way overdue. Moderate rain currently.

Here are those pictures, I think my favorite is the one where the sunset almost seems to be illuminating the clouds from underneath  

Russell Wilson showed up at my son's flag football game today. Apparently his son plays on one of the other teams in the league. My son lost his game but said it didn't matter since he got to meet Rus

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58 and mostly cloudy nice morning no rain the last few hours. Some rain to the south of here but we’re in the shadow it looks like so I don’t think we will get much here. Tomorrow evening looks like we should do pretty good on rainfall. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I think the rains coming down there. It’s looking pretty good right now. 

Nope! The sun is kinda out now but dark rain clouds to the east. The ground isn't even wet!

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23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS shows the same trough still parked over us at 300+ hours.    And shows rain around every day for the next 14 days.   That should take us into the time period when troughing is really favorable for the West. 😀  

Happenstance timing of intraseasonal waves with respect to the seasonal cycle. Same thing happened back in spring, except it favored ridging.

Still, there should be a break sometime around mid-month. Maybe third week? Hard to pinpoint because this isn’t a clean wave-1 signature in the tropics. There’s an MJO/CCKW traversing the W-Hem and another developing over the IO/IPWP.

But guidance (and climo) does put a sturdy MJO over the IO/EHEM starting late this month, which is where the SSTAs are warmest. Should that occur, the favored response is -PNA (Aleutian/GOA ridge and western trough) beginning at the very end of the month.

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Just now, Link said:

Nope! The sun is kinda out now but dark rain clouds to the east. The ground isn't even wet!

I didn’t mean today. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Rain has stopped for the moment. .36” so far on the day.

Temp up to 51.6 from 51.3 over the last 3hrs!!!! 

Pretty sure your average high is still in the mid 40s and average daily rain is still over an inch this early in the summer... so you should be thankful for this warm and dry day.   👍

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Browsing the 12Z ECMWF surface maps and despite the trough being parked right over us... the Monday-Thursday period is fairly dry and at least partly sunny for the interior of western WA from Olympia to Bellingham.     The low clouds do not lock in over us.  

That is after we get hit pretty good tomorrow afternoon though.   

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And then of course the 12Z ECMWF shows tons of rain for next weekend.   Every run has been showing that despite differences in how the pattern evolves.   

Interestingly... the 12Z run shows high temps around 70 next Saturday with that rain.   That is the advantage to having the trough offshore and not over the intermountain west to our east.

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7 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Whitecaps today. 

72745B66-BD85-49BE-BBDA-7E037581F541.jpeg

Just gorgeous.  

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25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And then of course the 12Z ECMWF shows tons of rain for next weekend.   Every run has been showing that despite differences in how the pattern evolves.   

Interestingly... the 12Z run shows high temps around 70 next Saturday with that rain.   That is the advantage to having the trough offshore and not over the intermountain west to our east.

If it’s raining you’ll probably be cowering inside anyway so what’s the difference?

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61 here and mostly sunny here in the rain shadow. Getting gusts of 20-30mph as well pretty breezy.

Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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Euros still pretty wet for Oregon later in the run. Fairly wet up this way too. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

If it’s raining you’ll probably be cowering inside anyway so what’s the difference?

That set up in much nicer when there are breaks in the rain.    

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Favorable angle of the onshore flow today for my area to get into the rain shadow and even see some sun... with the c-zone pointing to the NNE from north Seattle up to Everett.  

sat1.png

rad1.png

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3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Sunny and windy in Seattle today. Not as bad as Tim and Mossman said it was going to be.

Yeah... you obviously don't know much about the c-zone.   Seattle can often be in a bubble of dry and sunny in the rain shadow of the Olympics.   And neither of us live in Seattle of course.  

Its raining hard just to the north of Seattle...

005vc18748.jpg

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Just got back from Bellevue where I thought for sure we'd have my son's first rainy football game but it ended up pretty nice. Partly cloudy with some sun, although it was quite breezy with the occasional stronger gust. Made it feel a bit colder than it actually was.

Overall though, our streak of mostly dry sports games continues from it's start in April. Miraculous. 

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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12Z EPS shows some hope for 2 weekends from now for some summer weather to return...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-4147200.png

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The national blend of all models does not seem to have the cold bias that the ECMWF and EPS display... it shows it warming up in Seattle despite the fact that it will also likely be getting even wetter by the end of the week and next weekend.    Tomorrow sure sucks though.

 

nb.png

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Sitting on the south side of the convergence. Very stark temp differences over just a few miles going from low 60s to upper 40s/low 50s. Was sitting outside and felt humid then the temp plummeted 10deg or so and felt considerably chilly. Love days like today.

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A horrific 0.06" of rain today. Weekend ruined. 

  • Storm 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A horrific 0.06" of rain today. Weekend ruined. 

Tomorrow afternoon looks particularly nasty up here... all it takes is extremely anomalous 500mb heights for early summer!      

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3024000.png

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Some fast moving clouds today... but very little rain since this morning thanks to the rain shadow.  

20210605_135954.jpg

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Still nothing down this way. Mostly cloudy and 66F.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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15 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Drying deck! Temp up to 53! Just had a major gust of wind! 

846A16F2-448D-4700-9A40-722ECB7A6AB2.jpeg

Warmer to the south of the c-zone... 62 here.

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It rained really hard while my wife and I were in Kohl’s (new pants!). One lady came scurrying in from the parking lot as we were tendering our purchases, lamenting the fact she thought it was summer. I hope she likes her four flat tires and sugary gas tank.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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63 here...have had a few gusts in the 30-33mph range today. Still no rain since this morning. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS shows some hope for 2 weekends from now for some summer weather to return...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-4147200.png

I’m telling you man, it’s going to return mid-month. Probably the third week. This current troughy pattern is kind of fluky and many (if not most) years probably would not unfold this way.

But you might want to make those 4th of July reservations now, since confidence in an E-Hem MJO transit is increasing for that timeframe. Just an honest heads up. 🤓

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Drying deck! Temp up to 53! Just had a major gust of wind! 

846A16F2-448D-4700-9A40-722ECB7A6AB2.jpeg

I’ll trade you my 93°F for your 53°F. 

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9 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m telling you man, it’s going to return mid-month. Probably the third week. This current troughy pattern is kind of fluky and many (if not most) years probably would not unfold this way.

But you might want to make those 4th of July reservations now, since confidence in an E-Hem MJO transit is increasing for that timeframe. Just an honest heads up. 🤓

Just a short 10-12 days of "fluky" troughy.    That is only 13% of the entire summer.   😀

Maybe we can score a 2-day fluke ridge over the 4th during the real troughy period?   

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just a short 10-12 days of "fluky" troughy.    That is only 13% of the entire summer.   😀

Maybe we can score a 2-day fluke ridge over the 4th during the real troughy period?   

August and September still look like hot garbage out there.

Not a given but the odds lean that way.

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

August still looks like hot garbage out there. You’ll love it.

Yuck... you mean actual seasonal variety?   Something different than the usual chilly temps, clouds, and frequent rain that we have for the rest of the year?    Darn.   Sounds scary and vile.  

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Yuck... you mean actual seasonal variety?   Something different than the usual chilly temps, clouds, and frequent rain that we have for the rest of the year?    Darn.   Sounds scary and vile.  

Hellacious blowtorch  = happy Tim. 😁

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A hot August and a snowy, cold December would be delightfully seasonally extreme for our thrilling climate.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Hellacious blowtorch  = happy Tim. 😁

Maybe some 80s here?  Will my tires melt into the asphalt?  😀

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3 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Tim, you will love the 18z GFS. Almost completely dry next weekend. Above average temps for most of the PNW by Sunday. A complete 180 from the 12z. The low is too far north and west. 

Saturday is actually colder on the 18Z run compared the 12Z run... Sunday is nicer though.   

Does not mean much when its just one run and goes against all of the ensembles.

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