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June 2021 Pacific Northwest Obs


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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

According to Justin... they did not start using the new averages until late May when the full data was released.   

So June might be the first full month with the new averages.    

 

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The vast majority of this spring’s anomalies were based on the 1981-2010 averages.

Ah, well that makes sense then.

I expect SEA will still run a bit warmer during more normal warm season months (unlike ones that are dominated by 2 weeks of cool/wet and then a massive, record-breaking heatwave), but should definitely be a lot closer than it has been the past decade or so.

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8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Ended up with a 114/70 spread yesterday.

Cooled down to a bone-chilling 62 degrees earlier this morning, now up to 73.

Another case where you held onto the east wind longer than I did and it made your place hotter.  This area is a fascinating microclimate.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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32 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Would be awesome but looks like nothings in the pipeline for atleast 7-10 days and lots of 80s and 90s weather coming regionally. 

Not many 90s.  If any.  Today might get there.

The pattern we are going into is totally different.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Not many 90s.  If any.  Today might get there.

The pattern we are going into is totally different.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a day or two in the 90s up here in the next 7-10 days as well…but I was mostly talking about Oregon. 

Monthly rainfall-1.16”

Cold season rainfall-1.16”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not many 90s.  If any.  Today might get there.

The pattern we are going into is totally different.

Totally different than unprecedented high pressure and extreme heat?   Crazy.   Thought it would last the rest of the summer.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It’s been said already, but it really is amazing how nice it feels out there this morning. Never felt great yesterday morning even at 7am. 
 

I don’t know why anyone would want to live in a place like Phoenix in the summer. 

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44 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

The info you posted about the sealife being hit hard during low tide yesterday was also concerning. Might be a little while before we know the full effects regionally. Us staying warm and dry for the most part coming up after such an inferno can’t be a good thing for recovery. 

This. It was shocking how scorched all the vegetation looked coming up the Wilson River from Tillamook last night. Everything from shrubs to large trees had a dried brown layer on them. Best way I can describe it is a sunburn.

No idea what the long term affect of that will be and if those plants will shake it off or not survive at all. But I’d imagine an entire summer of warm to hot and dry weather on the horizon is just about the worst thing possible after this.

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Just to set reasonable expectations... the average high at SEA (with the new 1991-2020 averages) is still only 74 right now.  

So endless 80s is still pretty darn warm compared to climo.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12Z GFS decided to abandon that idea of a trough forming early next week in favor of cutting the energy off... which of course if going to be a warmer solution and very different than the 00Z run at day 6.    Chasing a carrot right now.  

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-5508000 (1).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Smoky skies starting to hit here from the Lava fire. A lot more of this on the way. It might keep temps down but without any moisture and still getting into the upper 80s to low 90s will continue to take a toll, esp in the SE valley where we barely cracked 1" of rain for the month.

The state forester is going to have to make a tough call this weekend.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 60F (Oct 13)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Some places to watch for potential state records today. Officially, 119 in OR and 118 in WA, although many believe the 119 for OR to be dubious. Dallesport, WA unofficially tied the record yesterday: 

 

- Hermiston, OR

- Pendleton, OR

- Arlington, OR

- Moses Lake, WA

- Tri-Cities airport

- Prosser, WA

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We can all see the models for ourselves without it being constantly rubbed into our faces how devastating the weather will continue to be. No one cares about how wrong Phil was anymore.

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

It still feels surreal to think about how hot many places got the last few days. Even the Olympic coast. I want to wake up from this nightmare now.

This is like a David Lynch film where the most intense and scariest parts keep happening as we continue to go deeper into the depths of our biome's demise.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 60F (Oct 13)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS decided to abandon that idea of a trough forming early next week in favor of cutting the energy off... which of course if going to be a warmer solution and very different than the 00Z run at day 6.    Chasing a carrot right now.  

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-5508000 (1).png

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Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

This is like a David Lynch film where the worst parts keep happening and we go deeper into the depths of our biome's demise.

Starting to seriously consider leaving the region tbh. It would almost be easier than watching something you love with all your heart and want to remember as it was slowly and agonizingly die.

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17 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Starting to seriously consider leaving the region tbh. It would almost be easier than watching something you love with all your heart and want to remember as it was slowly and agonizingly die.

When Chicago’s turn for a climate-change-induced heat wave comes, it will be in the 120’s with even higher dewpoints than we saw. There is no escape, and this region is still one of the better places to be.

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23 minutes ago, Jesse said:

This. It was shocking how scorched all the vegetation looked coming up the Wilson River from Tillamook last night. Everything from shrubs to large trees had a dried brown layer on them. Best way I can describe it is a sunburn.

No idea what the long term affect of that will be and if those plants will shake it off or not survive at all. But I’d imagine an entire summer of warm to hot and dry weather on the horizon is just about the worst thing possible after this.

Yep getting 3 days of Palm Springs weather regionally was quite a shock to the vegetation and wildlife…damage will probably be worse in Oregon.  I noticed this morning even after frequent watering our rhododendrons have some wilting brown leaves on them…haven’t seen that happen before. 

Monthly rainfall-1.16”

Cold season rainfall-1.16”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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21 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

2015

Oh this will be far, far worse.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 60F (Oct 13)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

When Chicago’s turn for a climate-change-induced heat wave comes, it will be in the 120’s with even higher dewpoints than we saw. There is no escape, and this region is still one of the better places to be.

Without delving deep into the climate change discussion again, I think it's important to consider the role of regional cycles and changes in this. "Climate change" is an easy catch-all, but the climate does not change the same way everywhere at the same time.

Which is why some places just in this country have warmed and/or experienced much more in the way of extremes recently than others.

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4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Oh this will be far, far worse.

We’re going to be over the average amount of 80+ Days for the whole summer by the time mid July arrives. We’ve already had 3 +90 days and potentially a 4th today. I definitely get the feeling this will blow past 2015 in terms of consistent well above normal temps. It’ll no longer be normal not to have AC units. 

Monthly rainfall-1.16”

Cold season rainfall-1.16”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Without delving deep into the climate change discussion again, I think it's important to consider the role of regional cycles and changes in this. "Climate change" is an easy catch-all, but the climate does not change the same way everywhere at the same time.

Which is why some places just in this country have warmed and/or experienced much more in the way of extremes recently than others.

You could saved us all some time and just straight up said nothing directly.

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2 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I soaked all my plants 4 times a day. Look at this guy. 

20210629_070915.jpg

Looks exactly like ours.. not good. Salmonberry leaves exposed to sun turned blackish and shriveled, berry season for them is probably done. Huckleberries are incredible in size right now, but I expect a stunted berry season. Ferns didn’t look great either. Basically all native plants are not happy.

6342A451-9C68-44CC-AA8E-E382721ADE79.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Without delving deep into the climate change discussion again, I think it's important to consider the role of regional cycles and changes in this. "Climate change" is an easy catch-all, but the climate does not change the same way everywhere at the same time.

Which is why some places just in this country have warmed and/or experienced much more in the way of extremes recently than others.

True, it could easily be more or less severe there. I was just applying the 40 degree departure from normal to their historical average summertime maxima.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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Just now, 1000'NorthBend said:

Looks exactly like ours.. not good. Salmonberry leaves exposed to sun turned blackish and shriveled, berry season for them is probably done. Huckleberries are incredible in size right now, but I expect a stunted berry season. Ferns didn’t look great either. Basically all native plants are not happy.

6342A451-9C68-44CC-AA8E-E382721ADE79.jpeg

That’s exactly what happened to ours in my area too. Hopefully things bounce back after this. 

Monthly rainfall-1.16”

Cold season rainfall-1.16”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

That’s exactly what happened to ours in my area too. Hopefully things bounce back after this. 

I’m sure three more months of unbroken heat and drought will be just what the doctor ordered.

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2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

True, it could easily be more or less severe there. I was just applying the 40 degree departure from normal to their historical average summertime maxima.

I never even mentioned Chicago.

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

You could saved us all some time and just straight up said nothing directly.

What is hard to understand about the concept of "climate change" globally not meaning the same thing for every region?

The PNW is and has recently experienced more warm extremes and warmer summers in relation to normal than most other parts of the country - by far. Projecting that level of change onto other regions would not have worked out well 15 years ago, and probably won't start all of the sudden now.

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4 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Looks exactly like ours.. not good. Salmonberry leaves exposed to sun turned blackish and shriveled, berry season for them is probably done. Huckleberries are incredible in size right now, but I expect a stunted berry season. Ferns didn’t look great either. Basically all native plants are not happy.

6342A451-9C68-44CC-AA8E-E382721ADE79.jpeg

You must be outside the boundaries of the green, gated, undying garden of Eden just up the hill from you.

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32 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Starting to seriously consider leaving the region tbh. It would almost be easier than watching something you love with all your heart and want to remember as it was slowly and agonizingly die.

Yikes.  I don't believe it's as bad as you think.  After a series of fall storms and when we're staring down the barrel of a November cold and snow event you will have a change of heart.

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6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

True, it could easily be more or less severe there. I was just applying the 40 degree departure from normal to their historical average summertime maxima.

I hear ya. Just don't think it works that way, especially when you're comparing two very different climates.

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

I hear ya. Just don't think it works that way, especially when you're comparing two very different climates.

It was if anything a conservative estimate. As time goes on, the amount of warming, and the disruption caused by it, will increase.

Climate modeling is in general much more difficult than weather modeling, because the former does not have the advantage of the feedback loop the latter does. The only real thing that can be said with any degree of confidence is that bad things will happen, and the global average temperature will increase. Exactly how that happens, nobody really knows.

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The new GFS is simply horrible in these situations.  It was projected that SEA would be at 81 at this time and it's only 70.  Yikes!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It was if anything a conservative estimate. As time goes on, the amount of warming, and the disruption caused by it, will increase.

Climate modeling is in general much more difficult than weather modeling, because the former does not have the advantage of the feedback loop the latter does. The only real thing that can be said with any degree of confidence is that bad things will happen, and the global average temperature will increase. Exactly how that happens, nobody really knows.

Exactly. I've always been struck by the observation that climate models cannot even agree on the sign (does it get wetter or drier) of precipitation change for most regions on earth under climate change. 

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