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June 2021 Pacific Northwest Obs


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1 minute ago, Phil said:

That almost never happens. If the MJO/intraseasonal cycle was muted with respect to the low pass, that would be one thing, but even then seasonal forcing(s) alters the tropical-extratropical relationship(s) substantially from month to month.

Considering there is a potent¬†MJO event¬†developing for the month of July, I fail to understand how a ‚Äústable‚ÄĚ pattern could emerge from that.

Given the drought situation in the SW and now very dry soils in the PNW... I think you are fighting an uphill battle against a large 4CH situation.    And I think you and Jim are in denial.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Really trying hard huh?  Now using the sigma map.   

The 12Z EPS sure looks like a building 4CH situation... that trough is no match.   

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1624968000-1624968000-1626048000-10.gif

That will probably change as we get closer. We’ll have the Aleutian High at that point.

Don’t think I’ll have to lift a finger. :) 

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June 2015 had no 100's here, and still ended as the warmest ever with a Mean of 66.0 (+7.8).

Max was 98 that month. 

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (9)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 08/05, 08/13, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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32 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I have not seen any plant life/tree damage at home yet. I was careful to only water in the early morning and at sunset. Watering plants/shrubs in direct sun and temps in the 90’s-100’s will burn the leaves. 
Even my grass that I do not water is still green as can be. I’m sure it helped that we did not exceed 102 degrees and we have a lot of dense tree cover as well. 
Currently 76 degrees. 

Pretty much the same here, looking like the hydrangeas might have been hit a bit.  I topped out at 104 with the house topping out at 91 and still hanging in at 87 so not a pleasant place to be.  Currently 87 outside, DP 73

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

That will probably change as we get closer. We’ll have the Aleutian High at that point.

Don’t think I’ll have to lift a finger. :) 

Like the one you see in traffic sometimes.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50¬†(Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3¬†(Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

That almost never happens. If the MJO/intraseasonal cycle was muted with respect to the low pass, that would be one thing, but even then seasonal forcing(s) alters the tropical-extratropical relationship(s) substantially from month to month.

Considering there is a potent¬†MJO event¬†developing for the month of July, I fail to understand how a ‚Äústable‚ÄĚ pattern could emerge from that.

In fact, since the start of the satellite era, there has never been a stable north american pattern in the midst of a potent MJO event w/ IO inception.

How could such a thing arise? Why now?

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11 minutes ago, Phil said:

That will probably change as we get closer. We’ll have the Aleutian High at that point.

Don’t think I’ll have to lift a finger. :) 

You have been incorrect about pretty much everything since late May... you are either trying too hard to troll me or you are having an off year.    

12Z EPS is still wall-to-wall warmer than normal 850mb temps.    Which means we won't have much cooler than normal weather any time soon.  And you and Jim can't change that.   Just the way it works.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1624968000-1624968000-1626264000-10.gif

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Pretty clear there is a very low inversion over Seattle that the models did not see... going to end up well below the guidance at SEA as a result.  It will be just as warm as modeled out here though.    Its a minor detail with big ramifications for a station like SEA.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Given its cool bias... the 12Z EPS shows temps at or above 80 for most of the next 15 days in Seattle.   Just crazy consistent warmth.    

sea 6-29.png

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50 minutes ago, Phil said:

:huh:

Umm, this is beyond false, bordering on ignorance. The rate of temperature rise today is actually not that impressive compared to the Younger Dryas termination and the warming following the 8200 kiloyear event, both Holocene events. It’s approximately +1SD above the average +dT/dt since the glacial termination. By comparison, the post YD warming was well over +2SD. So, the warming is indeed faster than the typical rate of warming over the Holocene, but not unprecedentedly so.

Furthermore, all of the post-LIA temperature rise (to date) technically fits within the bounds of Holocene natural variability. That doesn’t mean humans aren’t contributing to post WWII climate warming (we absolutely are, possibly to a significant extent), but we should make sure the statements we make are scientifically legitimate.

Not so fast. I stand by my statements.

The maximum rate of global average heating during deglacial periods¬†was 1¬į C/1,000 years, and the current rate is >1¬į C/100 years.¬† That's at least ten times faster.¬†

Let me explain... 

While faster rates of temperature change have been documented for certain ice core and lake sites, the proxy record shows that *global* heating is now 10 times faster than any period in the last 20,000 years. 

The reason for this difference is that periods of rapid deglacial climate change like the YD and 8.2 kyr-event were not globally-forced cooling/heating episodes.

Instead they were periods when ice sheet instabilities like megafloods and surging glaciers triggered regional, decadal climate changes that then propagated through the climate system via disruption to the ocean and atmospheric circulation. 

These regional events occurred in the midst of a slow and steady CO2-forced global warming at the pace of 1¬įC/1,000 years.

shakun_marcott_hadcrut4_a1b_eng-768x609.png

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14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You have been incorrect about pretty much everything since late May... you are either trying too hard to troll me or you are having an off year.    

12Z EPS is still wall-to-wall warmer than normal 850mb temps.    Which means we won't have much cooler than normal weather any time soon.  And you and Jim can't change that.   Just the way it works.

I’m wrong because of a D10-15 temperature map? :huh: 

Funny thing is, you were bashing the EPS all throughout April/May/June when it didn’t show what you wanted. You would even cling to rando-crazy GFS runs with whacky cut-off lows and then say the EPS was wrong.

Turned out you were wrong.

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

It‚Äôs¬†called a ‚Äúdeath ridge‚Ä̬†for a reason.

 

Pretty much every extreme weather event can take lives.  Cold, snow, heat, rain, wind, lightning.  If only it could be exactly average every single day  

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

It‚Äôs¬†called a ‚Äúdeath ridge‚Ä̬†for a reason.

At least the heat misers are happy.

 

This a real STFU.

I don't think anyone was happy about the weather the past 3 days.    It was a destructive event.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m wrong because of a D10-15 temperature map? :huh: 

Funny thing is, you were bashing the EPS all throughout April/May/June when it didn’t show what you wanted. You would even cling to rando-crazy GFS runs with whacky cut-off lows and then say the EPS was wrong.

Turned out you were wrong.

I literally have no idea what you are talking about... other than some random modeling musings at times.    It was a beautiful spring overall with almost no complaints from me.    

You have been wrong about summer so far... troughing when you said ridging and ridging when you said troughing.   And you seem intent on doubling down and chasing this phantom major troughing period coming for the PNW.    Its not coming any time soon.     Just own it and stop telling us its going to get cold soon.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Seeing a couple of 113 readings in Eastern WA.  Pretty awful over there today.

Amazingly there are still some 100 degree readings west of the Cascade Crest above the inversion.  We are very lucky that onshore flow kicked in yesterday.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Ephrata 113 at 1 PM. That's what the GFS predicted for the high today. I expect they will exceed that and possibly set the state record this afternoon. 

There's a couple of others up there too.  Amazing how the GFS can get the numbers right or even too low over there.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This a real STFU.

I don't think anyone was happy about the weather the past 3 days.    It was a destructive event.   

Definitely not. I'm all for pleasant summer weather, but anything over 90¬į starts becoming unpleasant to me.¬† It's only 93¬į here in central Idaho now and not pleasant at all.¬† I'm very thankful to have air conditioning.¬† I cannot even imagine 115¬į, that sounds horrific.

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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33 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Given the drought situation in the SW and now very dry soils in the PNW... I think you are fighting an uphill battle against a large 4CH situation.    And I think you and Jim are in denial.  

I think it's obvious at this point that the 4CH is going to be the main player for our summer weather this year and that it's going to take something substantial to knock it down in any meaningful way. It's like a force field that bounces troughs off of it.

Obviously I hope I'm wrong on this because a 2015 type summer the rest of the way would be really bad, but let's be realistic.

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

There's a couple of others up there too.  Amazing how the GFS can get the numbers right or even too low over there.

Back down to 111 after winds shifted to the east. NE winds into Ephrata funnel through Grand Coulee, which may be producing a heating effect. 

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7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What scares me is the possibility if this happening again. I hope to never feel this again. The only part I enjoyed was the late evening.  That was amazing.

Very doubtful we will ever see that again.  It was obviously a less than once a century event.  There is always the chance of a pattern repeat within a given season though.  We're actually lucky it didn't come a month later.  It would have been hotter with a much drier environment in general.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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7 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Ephrata 113 at 1 PM. That's what the GFS predicted for the high today. I expect they will exceed that and possibly set the state record this afternoon. 

Somebody over here is making a run at 120.

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After the hot mess We all just went through, it feels incredibly strange to think 80s weather is actually VERY cool and comfortable. This would still consider semi-uncomfortable for some prior to the heatwave. Just strange. 

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

It‚Äôs¬†called a ‚Äúdeath ridge‚Ä̬†for a reason.

At least the heat misers are happy.

 

Your calls for balls to the wall late month troughing might make you complicit.  Better lawyer up!!!

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, James Jones said:

I think it's obvious at this point that the 4CH is going to be the main player for our summer weather this year and that it's going to take something substantial to knock it down in any meaningful way. It's like a force field that bounces troughs off of it.

Obviously I hope I'm wrong on this because a 2015 type summer the rest of the way would be really bad, but let's be realistic.

Too early to say yet.  The Pacific high is going to make a real effort to take control next week.  Hot Junes have happened in the past that were followed by a cool July / August.  Sort of like how front loaded winters are often crap afterward.  We will see the flip side of this at some point.  Maybe it will take until autumn, but just too early to tell for the rest of the summer.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

I have not seen any plant life/tree damage at home yet. I was careful to only water in the early morning and at sunset. Watering plants/shrubs in direct sun and temps in the 90’s-100’s will burn the leaves. 
Even my grass that I do not water is still green as can be. I’m sure it helped that we did not exceed 102 degrees and we have a lot of dense tree cover as well. 
Currently 76 degrees. 

Whoops. Sounds like a few people made that mistake.

A forum for the end of the world.

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13 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Pretty much every extreme weather event can take lives.  Cold, snow, heat, rain, wind, lightning.  If only it could be exactly average every single day  

You’re right. But the thing is our weather keeps swinging in one direction again and again lately and it’s causing problems. So obviously people will focus on it more. I don’t think we have to worry about widespread cold or rain related casualties anytime soon.

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13 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Pretty much every extreme weather event can take lives.  Cold, snow, heat, rain, wind, lightning.  If only it could be exactly average every single day  

In terms of overall yearly death total, heat is the worst.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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17 minutes ago, Phil said:

It‚Äôs¬†called a ‚Äúdeath ridge‚Ä̬†for a reason.

At least the heat misers are happy.

 

My wife works in hospice care and she said they had 2 patients pass because of heat stress during this heatwave that were nowhere near end of life.  She said when the fire department got to one of the houses it was 100 degrees inside.

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What I would really like to see right now is a good 2 or 3 day rain event in the models.   And no matter how hard I squint... I can't find it.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What scares me is the possibility if this happening again. I hope to never feel this again. The only part I enjoyed was the late evening.  That was amazing.

As Justin mentioned yesterday this was probably the most truly historic event most people on the forum have seen here.  For me it was either this or November 1985.  That anomaly was right up there with this.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

You’re right. But the thing is our weather keeps swinging in one direction again and again lately and it’s causing problems. So obviously people will focus on it more. I don’t think we have to worry about widespread cold or rain related casualties anytime soon.

We just had the epic February in 2019.  People sure forget fast.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We just had the epic February in 2019.  People sure forget fast.

Nowhere near as anomalous as the recent heat wave. Months that snowy have happened multiple times in the 125 or so years of weather records in this area.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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45 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Maple tree's around here did fine. Cedar and hemlock not so good. Even see Doug fir with brown needles.

Sounds like you are seeing something similar to what we did near the Coast. The odd thing is it got better as we climbed into the coast range. Maybe the plants down in the marine layer zone are even less adapted to that sort of heat.

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34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty clear there is a very low inversion over Seattle that the models did not see... going to end up well below the guidance at SEA as a result.  It will be just as warm as modeled out here though.    Its a minor detail with big ramifications for a station like SEA.

The Euro cool bias lock fails yet again.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We just had the epic February in 2019.  People sure forget fast.

 

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Nowhere near as anomalous as the recent heat wave. Months that snowy have happened multiple times in the 125 or so years of weather records in this area.

Also pretty sure people weren’t dropping dead in their homes then.

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8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

As Justin mentioned yesterday this was probably the most truly historic event most people on the forum have seen here.  For me it was either this or November 1985.  That anomaly was right up there with this.

We’ve seen many other Novembers that had similar events, maybe just lacking in persistence.  1955 exceeded it on multiple levels.

There are absolutely no legitimate analogs for the last three days.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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32 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Given its cool bias... the 12Z EPS shows temps at or above 80 for most of the next 15 days in Seattle.   Just crazy consistent warmth.    

sea 6-29.png

Toned down quite a bit from runs a couple days ago. Could get toned down further.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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30 minutes ago, Phil said:

It‚Äôs¬†called a ‚Äúdeath ridge‚Ä̬†for a reason.

At least the heat misers are happy.

 

Heat kills more people than any other type of weather. It's not even close.

A forum for the end of the world.

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6 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I soaked all my plants 4 times a day. Look at this guy. 

20210629_070915.jpg

My dad’s flowers which are not native and cannot withstand this kind of heat completely withered under the heat last few days. Amazing we decided to move them into the shades yesterday and water them, they are now looking healthy again. Our plants and trees for the area absolutely do not like what they went thru at all. Let’s just hope there are no long term effect. 

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