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June 2021 Pacific Northwest Obs


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7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The Euro cool bias lock fails yet again.

Specifically said it was not a lock.   :)

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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41 minutes ago, James Jones said:

I think it's obvious at this point that the 4CH is going to be the main player for our summer weather this year and that it's going to take something substantial to knock it down in any meaningful way. It's like a force field that bounces troughs off of it.

Obviously I hope I'm wrong on this because a 2015 type summer the rest of the way would be really bad, but let's be realistic.

Let's take a look at other years that had a very warm June in the PNW (relative to their era), besides 2015: 2013, 2009, 2006, 1995, 1992, 1982, 1978, 1969, 1967, 1958, 1948.

All of the bolded years went on to have either July or August (or in a few cases, both) very close to average or below average. 

I think the narrative that "once the heat sets in, it's a hot summer" is due in part to recency bias, since that's largely what happened the past three summers with regionally hot Junes. But history tells us that it's very possible for the pattern to change later in the summer.

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Let's take a look at other years that had a very warm June in the PNW (relative to their era), besides 2015: 2013, 2009, 2006, 1995, 1992, 1982, 1978, 1969, 1967, 1958, 1948.

All of the bolded years went on to have either July or August very close to average or below average. 

I think the narrative that "once the heat sets in, it's a hot summer" is due in part to recency bias, since that's largely what happened the past three summers with regionally hot Junes. But history tells us that it's very possible for the pattern to change later in the summer.

Good point.

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

You act like it's a lock when applying it to 10 day forecasts.

True.   It's valid on the vast majority of days... but not all.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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13 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Man, this same heat that has now shifted over to central WA looks absolutely brutal over there. Some places may actually hit 120s before the day is done. 

Yeah, I'd be surprised if nobody did.

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Today never looked right in the models to me... low to mid 90s after a marine push with a SW wind all day?   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Today never looked right in the models to me... low to mid 90s after a marine push with a SW wind all day?   

Yep…I guess we couldn’t tell since it was so hot yesterday that it might still be hot today. 79 here currently on track for low 80s today. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23‚ÄĚ

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0‚ÄĚ

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Today never looked right in the models to me... low to mid 90s after a marine push with a SW wind all day?   

92F here. Just a touch of sea breeze keeping things in Check compared to yesterday 

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Today never looked right in the models to me... low to mid 90s after a marine push with a SW wind all day?   

Yup, like I said earlier… feels very strange. 

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15 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Let's take a look at other years that had a very warm June in the PNW (relative to their era), besides 2015: 2013, 2009, 2006, 1995, 1992, 1982, 1978, 1969, 1967, 1958, 1948.

All of the bolded years went on to have either July or August (or in a few cases, both) very close to average or below average. 

I think the narrative that "once the heat sets in, it's a hot summer" is due in part to recency bias, since that's largely what happened the past three summers with regionally hot Junes. But history tells us that it's very possible for the pattern to change later in the summer.

I would not consider 2006 a good example, though I guess August was "cool" relative to the ridiculously roided up 1991-2020 averages. I think it's telling that we have to go back to 1995 and before to find good examples, when our summer climo was definitively cooler than it is now.

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2 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

 

Has PDX's coldest temp in a fall-winter ever occurred in October like us?

I believe last year got the closest.  October had a low of 29, while 2020 had a low of 27.

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

On the bright side it looks the the current heatwave will end up nowhere near the duration of June/July 2015 or July 2018 in terms of 90+ temps down here. We are at five days now the streak looks to end possibly tomorrow or Thursday. We had 10-12 consecutive for the other events.

Obviously having the peak be about 15 degrees higher than those other events gives the last five days some inordinate weight, though.

Definitely…that’s good to hear. It’s looking consistently warm overall on the latest euro run…but seems like temps slowly drop down closer to normal by the end of the run. One thing we can be thankful for is this unprecedented heatwave is that it didn’t go on for another day or two. Still warm now but not extremely hazardous like before. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23‚ÄĚ

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0‚ÄĚ

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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1 hour ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

My wife works in hospice care and she said they had 2 patients pass because of heat stress during this heatwave that were nowhere near end of life.  She said when the fire department got to one of the houses it was 100 degrees inside.

That is really sad. Outside of my work yesterday an older homeless man collapsed and was taken away in an ambulance. Hopefully he’s ok…I’m sure there were quite a few cases of heat exhaustion and heat stroke the last few days. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23‚ÄĚ

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0‚ÄĚ

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Definitely…that’s good to hear. It’s looking consistently warm overall on the latest euro run…but seems like temps slowly drop down closer to normal by the end of the run. One thing we can be thankful for is this unprecedented heatwave is that it didn’t go on for another day or two. Still warm now but not extremely hazardous like before. 

I agree it’s good that it didn’t last longer. But the fact that it even lasted three days is pretty mind boggling.

If someone told me Portland was going to exceed 107 someday I would have assumed it would have been a one day deal.

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Definitely…that’s good to hear. It’s looking consistently warm overall on the latest euro run…but seems like temps slowly drop down closer to normal by the end of the run. One thing we can be thankful for is this unprecedented heatwave is that it didn’t go on for another day or two. Still warm now but not extremely hazardous like before. 

Honestly, I don’t know how I feel about this in terms of fair trade. Is the damage still the same if we have a prolonged period of warmth (mid-80s) for 10-15 days vs short period of hot 5-6 days of 90+? 

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Just now, Jesse said:

I agree it’s good that it didn’t last longer. But the fact that it even lasted three days is pretty mind boggling.

If someone told me Portland was going to exceed 107 someday I would have assumed it would have been a one day deal.

Not 3 days over 107. Just incredibly anomalous. Hopefully never ever again. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23‚ÄĚ

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0‚ÄĚ

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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1 minute ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Honestly, I don’t know how I feel about this in terms of fair trade. Is the damage still the same if we have a prolonged period of warmth (mid-80s) for 10-15 days vs short period of hot 5-6 days of 90+? 

I think a shorter duration of higher temperatures probably does more damage…good example being the last 3 days. still consistently above normal temps over long periods isn’t great either. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23‚ÄĚ

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0‚ÄĚ

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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90 here now with a dewpoint of 68... I want to say it feels much better today but its still pretty oppressive out there.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I think a shorter duration of higher temperatures probably does more damage…good example being the last 3 days. still consistently above normal temps over long periods isn’t great either. 

The really concerning part is we have seen a lot of both in recent years. You are taking ecosystems that have already on the ropes for several years now and giving them three consecutive knockout punches.

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I think a shorter duration of higher temperatures probably does more damage…good example being the last 3 days. still consistently above normal temps over long periods isn’t great either. 

I would agree with this and the last 3-4 days were just too extreme for any locations. I would very much prefer that we don’t go above 80s after what we went thru but it’s out of our control. 

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

The really concerning part is we have seen a lot of both in recent years. You are taking ecosystems that have already on the ropes for several years now and giving them three consecutive knockout punches.

100% agree Jesse.

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1 hour ago, joelgombiner said:

Not so fast. I stand by my statements.

The maximum rate of global average heating during deglacial periods¬†was 1¬į C/1,000 years, and the current rate is >1¬į C/100 years.¬† That's at least ten times faster.¬†

Let me explain... 

While faster rates of temperature change have been documented for certain ice core and lake sites, the proxy record shows that *global* heating is now 10 times faster than any period in the last 20,000 years. 

The reason for this difference is that periods of rapid deglacial climate change like the YD and 8.2 kyr-event were not globally-forced cooling/heating episodes.

Instead they were periods when ice sheet instabilities like megafloods and surging glaciers triggered regional, decadal climate changes that then propagated through the climate system via disruption to the ocean and atmospheric circulation. 

These regional events occurred in the midst of a slow and steady CO2-forced global warming at the pace of 1¬įC/1,000 years.

shakun_marcott_hadcrut4_a1b_eng-768x609.png


This is a combination fundamental misunderstanding and bad data/statistical procedure (IE: Marcott et al, 2013..more on that at the bottom of this post).

The notion that these rapid changes in climate were confined to tiny regions of the globe is outdated thinking. It has been firmly established that the Younger Dryas (and majority of analogous vacillations) were, indeed, global in extent, and larger in magnitude than any mid/late Holocene climate change.

Southern ocean the glacial record supports global Younger Dryas

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0012821X03005569

Timing of abrupt climate at the end of the younger Dryas Interval from thermally fractionated gas is in polar ice

https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/geology/article-abstract/23/10/877/206163/Precise-cosmogenic-10Be-measurements-in-western?redirectedFrom=fulltext

Timing the Younger Dryas event in East Africa from lake level changes

https://www.nature.com/articles/366146a0

THE¬†last deglaciation was interrupted by an abrupt cooling event, the Younger Dryas, at 11,000& ndash;10,000 yr BP (uncalibrated radiocarbon timescale)1. Originally recognized in climate records from northwest Europe, the Younger Dryas has now been identified in marine and ice-core records worldwide2‚Äď6. In the tropics, a broadly contemporaneous change in climate is recorded by decreases in water levels and increased salinity of lakes7‚Äď9,14, indicating a period of arid climate caused by a reduction in ocean-to-land moisture flux. The exact timing of these changes in relation to the Younger Dryas event in high-latitude records has remained unclear, however. Here we present climate records based on analyses of diatom assemblages, geochemistry and magnetic mineralogy of radiocarbon-dated sequences of laminated lake sediments from Lake Magadi in the East African rift. These records provide a detailed record of climate change in lowland equatorial Africa throughout the last deglaciation (12,800& ndash;10,000¬†14C yr BP). We find that lake-level and humidity maxima coincide with the most rapid phases of ice melting in the Northern Hemisphere, and that the climate changes, including the Younger Dryas event, were synchronous at low and high latitudes. Thus, the effects of abrupt climate change appear to be felt at both high and low latitudes without a significant time lag.

 

Furthermore, the notion there the Younger Dryas and other analogous events were driven by freshwater discharge appears to be unlikely.

Icebergs not the cause of North Atlantic cold events.

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14330

Here we further establish this relationship and demonstrate a systematic delay between pronounced surface cooling and the arrival of ice-rafted debris at a site southwest of Iceland over the past four glacial cycles, implying that in general icebergs arrived too late to have triggered cooling. Instead we suggest that‚ÄĒon the basis of our comparisons of ice-rafted debris and polar planktonic foraminifera‚ÄĒabrupt transitions to stadial conditions should be considered as a nonlinear response to more gradual cooling across the North Atlantic. Although the freshwater derived from melting icebergs may provide a positive feedback for enhancing and or prolonging stadial conditions10,11, it does not trigger northern stadial events.

Some additional research on abrupt climate change across the Pleistocene;

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277379107003356

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0335-4

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/301/5638/1361.abstract

https://www.nature.com/articles/34346


Now, lastly, that graphic you post is a laughable,¬†statistical manipulation of reality. Regarding the ‚Äú20th century¬†uptick‚ÄĚ in¬†Marcott‚Äôs proxy record, he himself admitted that¬†it is spurious:

Our global paleotemperature reconstruction includes a so-called ‚Äúuptick‚ÄĚ in temperatures during the 20th-century. However, in the paper we make the point that this particular feature is of shorter duration than the inherent smoothing in our statistical averaging procedure, and that it is based on only a few available paleo-reconstructions of the type we used. Thus, the 20th¬†century portion of our paleotemperature stack is not statistically robust, cannot be considered representative of global temperature changes, and therefore is not the basis of any of our conclusions.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:


This is a combination of a series of fundamental misunderstandings, an inability to synthesize information, and bad data/statistical procedure (IE: Marcott et al, 2013).

The idea that these rapid changes in climate were confined to tiny regions of the globe is outdated thinking. It has been firmly established that the Younger Dryas (and majority of analogous vacillations) were global in extent, and larger in magnitude than any mid/late Holocene climate change.

Southern ocean the glacial record supports global Younger Dryas

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0012821X03005569

Timing of abrupt climate at the end of the younger Dryas Interval from thermally fractionated gas is in polar ice

https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/geology/article-abstract/23/10/877/206163/Precise-cosmogenic-10Be-measurements-in-western?redirectedFrom=fulltext

Timing the Younger Dryas event in East Africa from lake level changes

https://www.nature.com/articles/366146a0

THE¬†last deglaciation was interrupted by an abrupt cooling event, the Younger Dryas, at 11,000& ndash;10,000 yr BP (uncalibrated radiocarbon timescale)1. Originally recognized in climate records from northwest Europe, the Younger Dryas has now been identified in marine and ice-core records worldwide2‚Äď6. In the tropics, a broadly contemporaneous change in climate is recorded by decreases in water levels and increased salinity of lakes7‚Äď9,14, indicating a period of arid climate caused by a reduction in ocean-to-land moisture flux. The exact timing of these changes in relation to the Younger Dryas event in high-latitude records has remained unclear, however. Here we present climate records based on analyses of diatom assemblages, geochemistry and magnetic mineralogy of radiocarbon-dated sequences of laminated lake sediments from Lake Magadi in the East African rift. These records provide a detailed record of climate change in lowland equatorial Africa throughout the last deglaciation (12,800& ndash;10,000¬†14C yr BP). We find that lake-level and humidity maxima coincide with the most rapid phases of ice melting in the Northern Hemisphere, and that the climate changes, including the Younger Dryas event, were synchronous at low and high latitudes. Thus, the effects of abrupt climate change appear to be felt at both high and low latitudes without a significant time lag.

Furthermore, the notion there the Younger Dryas and other analogous events were driven by freshwater discharge appears to be unlikely.

Icebergs not the cause of North Atlantic cold events.

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14330

Here we further establish this relationship and demonstrate a systematic delay between pronounced surface cooling and the arrival of ice-rafted debris at a site southwest of Iceland over the past four glacial cycles, implying that in general icebergs arrived too late to have triggered cooling. Instead we suggest that‚ÄĒon the basis of our comparisons of ice-rafted debris and polar planktonic foraminifera‚ÄĒabrupt transitions to stadial conditions should be considered as a nonlinear response to more gradual cooling across the North Atlantic. Although the freshwater derived from melting icebergs may provide a positive feedback for enhancing and or prolonging stadial conditions10,11, it does not trigger northern stadial events.

Some additional research on abrupt climate change across the Pleistocene;

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277379107003356

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0335-4

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/301/5638/1361.abstract

https://www.nature.com/articles/34346

Now, lastly, that graphic you post is a laughable,¬†statistical manipulation of reality. Regarding the ‚Äú20th century¬†uptick‚ÄĚ in¬†Marcott‚Äôs proxy record, he himself admitted that¬†it is spurious:

Our global paleotemperature reconstruction includes a so-called ‚Äúuptick‚ÄĚ in temperatures during the 20th-century. However, in the paper we make the point that this particular feature is of shorter duration than the inherent smoothing in our statistical averaging procedure, and that it is based on only a few available paleo-reconstructions of the type we used. Thus, the 20th¬†century portion of our paleotemperature stack is not statistically robust, cannot be considered representative of global temperature changes, and therefore is not the basis of any of our conclusions.

Holy wall of text. But I‚Äôm gonna read it regardless. ūüėā¬†

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21 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

Spokane Valley is separate. It runs warmer than Spokane airport. Spokane's record is 108.

Interesting, Considering Spokane Airport is part of Spokane Valley? 

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Quite the fire behavior on the cedar hills fire near Issaquah last night. ¬†This photo was taken at 2100. ¬†I‚Äôve done Wildland firefighting for 15 years now and it‚Äôs really rare to see these kind of burning conditions at this time of day on the ‚Äúwet side.‚ÄĚ ¬†¬†

F1F4A8D3-176C-426D-9F8E-EA4FD17FBC21.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Interesting, Considering Spokane Airport is part of Spokane Valley? 

Spokane Valley is a separate city. It was incorporated in 2003. Locals just call it the valley. Spokane airport is on the West Plains. Spokane Valley's airport is called Felts Field.

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8 minutes ago, HoodCanalBridge said:

Quite the fire behavior on the cedar hills fire near Issaquah last night. ¬†This photo was taken at 2100. ¬†I‚Äôve done Wildland firefighting for 15 years now and it‚Äôs really rare to see these kind of burning conditions at this time of day on the ‚Äúwet side.‚ÄĚ ¬†¬†

F1F4A8D3-176C-426D-9F8E-EA4FD17FBC21.jpeg

I got trained for the backup fire crew this season through the USFS. Just got my red card the other day. Feel like I picked a bad year to start...

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3 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

Spokane Valley is a separate city. It was incorporated in 2003. Locals just call it the valley. Spokane airport is on the West Plains. Spokane Valley's airport is called Felts Field.

Awesome! Thanks for clarifying… living here for 30 years I didn’t know there are 2 airports over there. 

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40 minutes ago, James Jones said:

I would not consider 2006 a good example, though I guess August was "cool" relative to the ridiculously roided up 1991-2020 averages. I think it's telling that we have to go back to 1995 and before to find good examples, when our summer climo was definitively cooler than it is now.

It was legitimately cool by 1981-2010 averages regionally.

Aug06TDeptWRCC-NW.png.ae631fc2eb00abf85ea36b125fc452cd.png

A forum for the end of the world.

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