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June 2021 Pacific Northwest Obs


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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I will have to look at my Hydrangeas when I get home! 

Ours were a little burnt on top and looked wilted yesterday... but they perked right up with water and we just took off the burnt leaves.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

18z GFS definitely closer to the analog composite. And climo.

Certainly makes more sense to me than an outcome associated with the¬†strongest El Ni√Īo since the 1870s. :lol:¬†But we shall¬†see!

18Z GEFS is not going to get there... trough just does not dig next week.   Which is what the ECMWF and EPS showed.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

A very shallow inversion is that hard to understand?   Its an all or nothing game today... shallow inversion held.   Its been warmer up here all day than just 500 feet lower in North Bend.      

It’s been a weird day, which makes sense seeing as though it is a transition day from weirdness.

Dry Creek at 2700’ in Skamania County hit 100 again today which is pretty bizarre after a decent marine push.  

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The models have been very good for predicting the high temperature at BLI today. They have long been going for dramatic cooling as a result of sea breezes, with a very strong temperature gradient across Whatcom County. It’s presently in the mid-70’s here and the low 90’s just five or ten miles inland. And around 100 once one gets above the marine layer!

What they whiffed on was not getting it right there would be a strong sea breeze effect further to the south as well.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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I'll take one order of 18z GFS for sure.  Showing some pretty rare lows in the 40s in mid July, and a generally cool 9 to 15 day period.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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20 minutes ago, James Jones said:

The spitting image of 1899!

I don't want to clutter this thread with a debate most people will probably find annoying so I'll lay out my reasoning, none of which is changed by the fact that we saw a warmish June followed by a marginally cool August fifteen years ago:

- The only June on record comparable to this one was 2015, which was followed by a blowtorch July and August

- Every recent summer that started warm finished warm

- Most importantly, the western US is in an exceptional, nearly unprecedented drought in terms of intensity and extent, and the 4CH is already freakishly hot and well established, which will lead both to reinforce each other in a positive feedback loop

Again, I don't want to be right about this, but I think the evidence leans strongly in favor of warmer than normal weather persisting for the foreseeable future. My guess is it will take until early fall for the big picture to change substantially. 

One potential wildcard is wildfire smoke. We saw last September how it can really keep a lid on things for extended periods of time with the right setup...

I think recency bias is a very real thing. And June 2015 was actually significantly different than this one when you look beyond the end of month anomalies.

I've backed up why I believe talking in any sort of absolutes about the rest of summer based on what we've seen the past couple weeks is not wise if history means anything.

I'll leave it there.

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

It’s been a weird day, which makes sense coming seeing as though it is a transition day from weirdness.

Dry Creek at 2700’ in Skamania County hit 100 again today which is pretty bizarre after a decent marine push.  

For sure.  It's even hot in the Olympics above the marine layer.  That is super rare.  The still very high 850s are certainly to blame.  Ironically the extreme nature of the inversion is probably what allowed it hold up so well in a very unlikely part of the year.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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I checked in on my parents yesterday and my mom had blankets up over all the windows and all the lights off. They were sitting in there 70 degree home watching movies in the dark lol.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GEFS is not going to get there... trough just does not dig next week.   Which is what the ECMWF and EPS showed.    

It gets close. Very minor shift will do it.

A1EB713E-B76C-4829-9BBE-8266295293BA.png

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21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... no.

The 12Z EPS run was wall-to-wall warmer than normal 850mb temps.   That matters.   Its not really hinting at anything. 

You have gone from "majestic" troughing during the last week of June... to a 1954 start to July... to now saying the EPS has been hinting at something.¬† ¬†¬†ūü§Ē

The EPS has been trending cooler, though. Yes...still above average, but closer to average for sure.

A forum for the end of the world.

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It’s quite irrational to expect ridging and warmth every day for 2+ months. That doesn’t happen anywhere on the planet.

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3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I checked in on my parents yesterday and my mom had blankets up over all the windows and all the lights off. They were sitting in there 70 degree home watching movies in the dark lol.

Do they have central A/C?  We are doing the same except it's 87 in our house.

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Those temps in Southern BC are insane.  108 at Whistler!  What an incredible event.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, Phil said:

It’s not rational to expect ridging and warmth every day for 2+ months. That doesn’t happen anywhere on the planet.

No one is saying it will be endless ridging.   Hell... the models show a weak trough over us this weekend.    But its still warmer than normal.      

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Acer said:

Do they have central A/C?  We are doing the same except it's 87 in our house.

They have a 300 dollar window ac unit. She said the blankets over the windows dropped it ten degrees.  

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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The push is really on today.  The southern tip of Vancouver has westerlies gusting to 44.  Tomorrow is going to be pure bliss for a lot of areas.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I think recency bias is a very real thing. And June 2015 was actually significantly different than this one when you look beyond the end of month anomalies.

I've backed up why I believe talking in any sort of absolutes about the rest of summer based on what we've seen the past couple weeks is not wise if history means anything.

I'll leave it there.

Good Lord man. Nobody is talking in absolutes or ignoring climo history (though of course a completely unprecedented event is wrapping up right now), that's something you made up in your head. We're talking probabilities, and obviously lower probability things happen sometimes, but the most likely outcome is for continued warmth. 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No one is saying it will be endless ridging.   Hell... the models show a weak trough over us this weekend.    But its still warmer than normal.      

But you’ll need something more than just a large 4CH for that outcome to happen.

In 2015 it was the¬†developing super ni√Īo (and +PMM).

We have none of that in 2021. What is going to produce such an outcome?

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8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The EPS has been trending cooler, though. Yes...still above average, but closer to average for sure.

Actually... just checked back on the saved images on my desktop and the EPS chart for Seattle for next week has been mostly in upper 70s and low 80s for several days.   That period looks almost exactly the same on the 12Z run today as on the chart I saved 4 days ago.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

But you’ll need something more than just a large 4CH for that outcome to happen.

In 2015 it was the¬†developing super ni√Īo (and +PMM).

We have none of that in 2021. What is going to produce such an outcome?

OK Phil.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

62 this morning in Tacoma. Wound up with a 106/69 spread yesterday…a record setting dirunal range. Cooled 23 degrees in 3 hours last night. Nice sunrise this morning and some clouds!

58283948-BC94-442E-878F-20DCF752581D.jpeg

I was down there this morning and got to enjoy the Orcas again.  They were doing a lot of breaching!!!  Hit a low of 63 on my side of the pond. Felt quite refreshing 

 

Currently  85* 
 

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28 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I checked in on my parents yesterday and my mom had blankets up over all the windows and all the lights off. They were sitting in there 70 degree home watching movies in the dark lol.

Do what you gotta do to survive.

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15 minutes ago, MossMan said:

116 in Orondo currently! Would have been a hot day on the River! 

Probably pretty unbearable.  I doubt there were many people out on the river in that, I think I'd rather be sitting in an air conditioned room..

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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Looks like it's over for eastern Washington, as most stations have now fallen off a degree from their afternoon highs. The highest reading I saw was 117 today. Seems the state record may stand for at least another day. 

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83/62 today. 23 degrees cooler than yesterday’s high temp. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23‚ÄĚ

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0‚ÄĚ

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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23 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

I was down there this morning and got to enjoy the Orcas again.  They were doing a lot of breaching!!!  Hit a low of 63 on my side of the pond. Felt quite refreshing 

 

Currently  85* 
 

That’s awesome! Haven’t seen any orcas myself since last summer on a ferry back from Anderson island. Only seen them twice in my life. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23‚ÄĚ

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0‚ÄĚ

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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Well Salem broke their record for warmest June by 2.3F in 2015, they will smash that record this year. 

Coming back from San Diego, it is unreal how dry the West Coast is. The entire Willamette Valley looks like the Garden of Eden compared to the Rogue Valley. 

Got a close up view of the Lava Fire on Mt. Shasta last night, stayed in Weed with family, they are not on evacuation orders yet, as the fire is mostly moving towards the north. 

Many Douglas Firs in the valley have been burned by the sun/heat. I'm sure most of them will not die, but it will weaken them further. Even a lot of the trees up at our place were burned. It will be interesting to see where Silver Falls ended up, my guess is somewhere in the 105-110 range. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, joelgombiner said:

https://www.barrons.com/news/scores-dead-as-heat-wave-grips-canada-us-police-01625005507

69 dead in Vancouver alone due to the heat. 

This heat wave will probably be the most deadly weather event in our region's history. 

 

That’s tragic. Probably some hospitalizations and deaths in WA and OR too. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23‚ÄĚ

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0‚ÄĚ

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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57 minutes ago, James Jones said:

Good Lord man. Nobody is talking in absolutes or ignoring climo history (though of course a completely unprecedented event is wrapping up right now), that's something you made up in your head. We're talking probabilities, and obviously lower probability things happen sometimes, but the most likely outcome is for continued warmth. 

You have clearly missed some of the recent posts here.

But even not talking in absolutes, history does not indicate it's likely that the rest of summer ends up 2015ish as many seem to be assuming.

An unprecedented, historic weather event doesn't make history irrelevant. At least in my opinion.

AND I'M NOT saying you made that literal, exact statement.

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48 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Actually... just checked back on the saved images on my desktop and the EPS chart for Seattle for next week has been mostly in upper 70s and low 80s for several days.   That period looks almost exactly the same on the 12Z run today as on the chart I saved 4 days ago.    

I clearly remember warmer runs 2-3 days ago.

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22 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Shadows growing long... still calm here.   I noticed that roadside grass around here did not turn totally brown.   I thought it would... and it will eventually like it does almost every summer.   But that has to be a good sign that we got enough rain going into this event.    I think we had about 10 inches from mid May through mid June.  

20210628_190200.jpg

Yeah… no. As I pointed out, the grass and vegetation IS brown in the areas that are more sun exposed, not the most shaded spot on the whole drive to town as you photographed.

 For instance, 10 seconds down the road: 

3DCE0245-4BFF-421E-8583-AF80ED4D401F.thumb.jpeg.5aa2d1a80fc37d4958b3fbdd7ef2a8b0.jpeg

or 5 seconds up the road:

1D23CCF3-0F86-4D90-BAE1-C15959AD2F8E.thumb.jpeg.6d50e89ec4a833dd5fbab1860d5b4cf0.jpeg

or 2 seconds up the road:

A8CCF080-DDFD-488F-BDAF-8EECC905128F.thumb.jpeg.f35125efd1e18605c02d583f4b541660.jpeg

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54 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Yeah… no. As I pointed out, the grass and vegetation IS brown in the areas that are more sun exposed, not the most shaded spot on the whole drive to town as you photographed.

 For instance, 10 seconds down the road: 

3DCE0245-4BFF-421E-8583-AF80ED4D401F.thumb.jpeg.5aa2d1a80fc37d4958b3fbdd7ef2a8b0.jpeg

or 5 seconds up the road:

1D23CCF3-0F86-4D90-BAE1-C15959AD2F8E.thumb.jpeg.6d50e89ec4a833dd5fbab1860d5b4cf0.jpeg

or 2 seconds up the road:

A8CCF080-DDFD-488F-BDAF-8EECC905128F.thumb.jpeg.f35125efd1e18605c02d583f4b541660.jpeg

You picked that¬†rocky soil hill... which always browns out first.¬† ¬† The rest of the road going down is quite green and so is the valley.¬† ¬† ¬†That hill is the brownest spot around here.¬†¬†ūüėÄ

I can do a video for you from the bottom of that hill to NB.   But you already know what it looks like.   Quite different.   And the pic I posted was not even close to a shaded spot... its in the sun almost all day.    I took a pic around noon just to show it was in the full sun.  

But all the grass browns out around here eventually... happens every summer except for 2019.  And I was surprised to see any green grass after the hell of the last 3 days.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

https://www.columbian.com/news/2021/jun/29/clark-county-bans-sale-use-of-fireworks/
 

This has made some waves. Interesting timing in doing this a day after sales began.  

King County is probably next.   And needs to be done.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The 18z GFS and ensemble went a fair bit lower on 850s for the later part of the week as compared to earlier runs.  Nice to see.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

King County is probably next.   And needs to be done.

Needs to be banned state wide this year.  Otherwise it will be bad…Real bad. And I like fireworks!  

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Low clouds are already beginning to move inland along the coast.  The big push!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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33 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You picked that¬†rocky soil hill... which always browns out first.¬† ¬† The rest of the road going down is quite green and so is the valley.¬† ¬† ¬†That hill is the brownest spot around here.¬†¬†ūüėÄ

I can do a video for you from the bottom of that hill to NB.   But you already know what it looks like.   Quite different.   And the pic I posted was not even close to a shaded spot... its in the sun almost all day.  

The hill is the brownest spot because it’s never in the shade.. the whole point I was making. No need to take a video for me, I drive it multiple times a day and see it myself.  Next you’ll be saying that tree disease isn’t rapidly spreading along Rattlesnake Mountain and leaving dead trees littered on the hillside.. oh wait. 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Low clouds are already beginning to move inland along the coast.  The big push!

Just scattered clouds in the morning for us per the ECMWF... and then sunny and low 80s tomorrow.   Bigger push happens tomorrow night and then it's cloudy until noon on Thursday. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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