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June 2021 Pacific Northwest Obs


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2 hours ago, Snowdrift said:

warming in region 3.4

nino34.png

It won't last.  We have a trade wind burst starting up.  In recent years ENSO SST anoms have peaked in the summer and drop during the autumn.  Good chance of a flat neutral or cold neutral winter.  Those can be very good for us.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It won't last.  We have a trade wind burst starting up.  In recent years ENSO SST anoms have peaked in the summer and drop during the autumn.  Good chance of a flat neutral or cold neutral winter.  Those can be very good for us.

That works.

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4 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

After seeing the forecast for the marine layer topping out around 4,500', I decided to hike up Silver Star (4,364')

I was hoping to get up here before the heat to see the bear grass in full bloom, but I wasn't able to.  It was past peak in most places, but it was awesome to pop up just over the marine layer at the summit.  A nice cool breeze.

Even better news, the foliage up here seems to have handled the heat fine.  My guess is it was the actual air temp (105 or so) that did the most damage.  I saw no damage above about 1,000' so it seems the heat up there wasn't enough to burn, including the new growth.

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Been a looooong time since I’ve been up there.  Hasn’t changed a bit!

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, Deweydog said:

Been a looooong time since I’ve been up there.  Hasn’t changed a bit!

I was looking at my excel sheets (yes I'm that guy) and I realized I hadn't been up there in a couple of years, so I needed to!  Looks great up there, the roads to the THs are getting worse and worse though.

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8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Vegas should be very offended by Lytton.  Much further north and they beat the all time record for Vegas.

Apparently Lytton also came within striking distance (3.72 degrees) of the all time record high of 125° for the state of Nevada set in Laughlin on June 29, 1994...

 

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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1 minute ago, Tyler Mode said:

I was looking at my excel sheets (yes I'm that guy) and I realized I hadn't been up there in a couple of years, so I needed to!  Looks great up there, the roads to the THs are getting worse and worse though.

I’d heard the same thing.  I was gonna ask you what you drove up there.  A friend of my son got stuck in a RAV4 but I wanna say that was in April so things might have been a little squishier.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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8 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

I was looking at my excel sheets (yes I'm that guy) and I realized I hadn't been up there in a couple of years, so I needed to!  Looks great up there, the roads to the THs are getting worse and worse though.

I knocked my driver side mirror off swerving into a tree branch on my way up there last summer, via 4109 coming in from the north. That awful little thing is basically undrivable now with the size of those potholes.

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52 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

There is a 10,000 acre wildfire south of The Dalles right now. 

Yeah and the fires in BC and CA are growing in appears. If we weren’t socked in with the marine layer all day the smoke would’ve been evident here in the upper levels. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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72/60 today. Sun never even showed up once. Concerning amount of fires and smoke building in the region…new fire is going in NE WA near the BC/WA border. Only a matter of time before our skies get smoky earlier than I can remember. euros still not on the rain bandwagon yet. 
 EDIT:it’s actually in BC to the north of the Washington border. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It won't last.  We have a trade wind burst starting up.  In recent years ENSO SST anoms have peaked in the summer and drop during the autumn.  Good chance of a flat neutral or cold neutral winter.  Those can be very good for us.

ENSO SSTAs are at peak right now. OHC peaked back in spring. The anemic downwelling OKW is essentially out of gas, upwelling wave should be triggered by the July MJO wave.

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17 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’d heard the same thing.  I was gonna ask you what you drove up there.  A friend of my son got stuck in a RAV4 but I wanna say that was in April so things might have been a little squishier.

I drove my Rav 4 :)

I've got high centered in my Tacoma on the 4109, and scratched the crap out of my RAV 4 and my Tacoma.  I no longer use the 4109, I take the 180 trail up.  I need to find the video I took years ago driving up that road.  It's barely a Jeep trail, and for some reason every time I got to the TH there was a little bitty sedan in the parking lot and I always wondered how haha

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13 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

72/60 today. Sun never even showed up once. Concerning amount of fires and smoke building in the region…new fire is going in NE WA near the BC/WA border. Only a matter of time before our skies get smoky earlier than I can remember. euros still not on the rain bandwagon yet. 
 EDIT:it’s actually in BC to the north of the Washington border. 

Huge PyroCBs going up on 2 of those fires again this afternoon. Intense burning and heat. 
 

 

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13 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

72/60 today. Sun never even showed up once. Concerning amount of fires and smoke building in the region…new fire is going in NE WA near the BC/WA border. Only a matter of time before our skies get smoky earlier than I can remember. euros still not on the rain bandwagon yet. 
 EDIT:it’s actually in BC to the north of the Washington border. 

The models actually show consistent onshore flow for the next 2 weeks... even though its going to be generally warm.     If that is the case then most of the smoke will head generally east and we can escape the worst of it.     I guess we could end up with southerly flow eventually and that could bring up CA smoke.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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GFS has been bullish on that gulfcane in the LR. Ominous sign if we’re beating the early season storm record set just last year.

 

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Here is the smoke loop from the Canadian model... you can see we are in pretty good shape right now and through the weekend.  

Also interesting that there is a major fire in south central Canada just north of Minnesota.

https://weather.gc.ca/firework/firework_anim_e.html?type=tc&utc=12

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is the smoke loop from the Canadian model... you can see we are in pretty good shape right now and through the weekend.  

Also interesting that there is a major fire in south central Canada just north of Minnesota.

https://weather.gc.ca/firework/firework_anim_e.html?type=tc&utc=12

I would say this is putting off the inevitable. Still better to put it off than not.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I would say this is putting off the inevitable. Still better to put it off than not.

Definitely inevitable.   But putting it off for as long as possible is the best we can hope for at this point.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, CloudBFIWx said:

Looks like the 2 weeks streak of above average have ended. Normal for today! comfortable!
 

 

Only took a strong inversion to get the job done!   

That inversion will be gone by Friday though and then its back to business as usual.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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77/56 on the day. Sun broke out around 1pm. 

Currently 70. I was a bit chilled in the shade, between being in 100 degree heat in eastern Washington last week and then coming home and being in 100 degree weather has really conditioned my body to be much more tolerable of the bigly heat. 

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26 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Looks like the 2 weeks streak of above average have ended. Normal for today! comfortable!
 

 

So much for #foreverwarm

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1 hour ago, Tyler Mode said:

I drove my Rav 4 :)

I've got high centered in my Tacoma on the 4109, and scratched the crap out of my RAV 4 and my Tacoma.  I no longer use the 4109, I take the 180 trail up.  I need to find the video I took years ago driving up that road.  It's barely a Jeep trail, and for some reason every time I got to the TH there was a little bitty sedan in the parking lot and I always wondered how haha

That’s funny!  It turned into a major ordeal getting that thing out of there and I believe he ended up snapping an axle.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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On 6/28/2021 at 2:40 AM, CloudBFIWx said:

BTW, what’s lost during the heat discussions is the air quality. For SEA, the AQI is at moderate. Only going to get worse unless we’re able to get some mixture in the air, which doesn’t seems likely for a while. 

Looks really gunky out there now as the marine layer has come in.   Hopefully it lifts out tomorrow as the marine layer deepens and we are back to regular blue sky on Friday.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just got done coaching my first youth flag football practice. I was expecting to have to contend with 85+ degree weather and sun but ended up staying mostly cloudy and topped out at only 73.

Impressively robust and stubborn marine layer today. It's been a while since we've had a day like this. Kinda nice, not gonna lie. Not my typical favorite summer day but after the past week or so it was pretty refreshing.

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Only took a strong inversion to get the job done!   

That inversion will be gone by Friday though and then its back to business as usual.   

A lot sooner than many were expecting, though.

Can't forget about that ocean to the left.

A forum for the end of the world.

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

The models actually show consistent onshore flow for the next 2 weeks... even though its going to be generally warm.     If that is the case then most of the smoke will head generally east and we can escape the worst of it.     I guess we could end up with southerly flow eventually and that could bring up CA smoke.  

Yeah it’ll keep the smoke out of here for the time being…but its unavoidable that offshore flow will re-emerge at some point. With no rain in sight…smoke will eventually get to us. Hopefully we don’t continue to have more fires develop. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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2 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Huge PyroCBs going up on 2 of those fires again this afternoon. Intense burning and heat. 
 

 

There’s some fires I can see just to the north of the Washington border as well that seem to be blowing up. Fire in Shasta looks pretty big on satellite as well.

9DE26BB3-AB08-4E53-871D-D35884B8BE7D.jpeg

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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Cool sunset this evening. Changed the scenery a little. Keep in mind that parched looking land isn't normally watered by anyone, and actually used to be fenced off for years until recently.

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IMG_2409.JPG

IMG_2417.JPG

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (9)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 08/05, 08/13, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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4 hours ago, Tyler Mode said:

After seeing the forecast for the marine layer topping out around 4,500', I decided to hike up Silver Star (4,364')

I was hoping to get up here before the heat to see the bear grass in full bloom, but I wasn't able to.  It was past peak in most places, but it was awesome to pop up just over the marine layer at the summit.  A nice cool breeze.

Even better news, the foliage up here seems to have handled the heat fine.  My guess is it was the actual air temp (105 or so) that did the most damage.  I saw no damage above about 1,000' so it seems the heat up there wasn't enough to burn, including the new growth.

I've noticed the same thing with regard to the "tree burn", which seems to be very widespread in the lowlands in the wake of the destructive heat event. The south and west side of trees look like they were hit the hardest. Seems like it was a combination of temps over 105-110 and direct sunlight pretty much scorching many trees alive. I think that most will survive, since it appears just the outer needles burned on many and new growth survived on the other sides. But it could be the last straw for quite a few that were already on the edge thanks to the years of warmth and drought.

Western Hemlocks seemed to take the brunt of it. There are some big, old ones I've seen around that look like they were blasted with burnt orange spraypaint on one side. Like you, I've also noticed the problem becomes less common with elevation, which tells me it was more about absolute temperature than anything. Hoping the lowland ecosystem can bounce back from this one.

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

I've noticed the same thing with regard to the "tree burn", which seems to be very widespread in the lowlands in the wake of the destructive heat event. The south and west side of trees look like they were hit the hardest. Seems like it was a combination of temps over 105-110 and direct sunlight pretty much scorching many trees alive. I think that most will survive, since it appears just the outer needles burned on many and new growth survived on the other sides. But it could be the last straw for quite a few that were already on the edge thanks to the years of warmth and drought.

It's really bad here man. All the trees that had sun exposure have burnt needles.  The maple and alder trees did fine. My Hemlock trees look really bad. I'm not worried about my Doug firs because there just a tough tree.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I've noticed the same thing with regard to the "tree burn", which seems to be very widespread in the lowlands in the wake of the destructive heat event. The south and west side of trees look like they were hit the hardest. Seems like it was a combination of temps over 105-110 and direct sunlight pretty much scorching many trees alive. I think that most will survive, since it appears just the outer needles burned on many and new growth survived on the other sides. But it could be the last straw for quite a few that were already on the edge thanks to the years of warmth and drought.

Seems to have been a bit of a delayed reaction for many of them as it seemed like today’s coloring for many trees was worse than yesterday. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It's really bad here man. All the trees that had sun exposure have burnt needles.  The maple and alder trees did fine. My Hemlock trees look really bad. I'm not worried about my Doug firs because there just a tough tree.

Yeah, hemlocks seem the hardest hit by this one. Sad since they are one of my favorite trees. Are yours burnt all around or just on the side that was facing the afternoon sun?

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Seems to have been a bit of a delayed reaction for many of them as it seemed like today’s coloring for many trees was worse than yesterday. 

There will be effects for months down the road. Like I said the other day we probably won't know the full toll until next spring.

Fortunately, on most trees I've observed closely, the damage is limited to the most sun exposed surfaces. Still a lot of living tree underneath. But it wouldn't surprise me to see the problem overwhelm some entirely.

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