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June 2021 Pacific Northwest Obs


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Just now, Phil said:

Still standing by my earlier prediction. Transient troughy window followed by more ridging mid-June.

More sustained troughing doesn’t arrive until the last 7-10 days of the month.

Not really sure how June could get any more ridgy. Looks like we have a June 2015 redux on our hands. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not really sure how June could get any more ridgy. Looks like we have a June 2015 redux on our hands. 

Now this is just hyperbole. We’re barely halfway through the first day of the month. :lol:

A 2015 redux is all but off the table at this point. This isn’t a +PMM/+ENSO summer. In fact it’s the inverse.

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13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The GEM has been trending farther offshore with the trough by the middle of next week.    I thought the 12Z run would come in line with the other models, but it did not.    Sometimes the GEM does surprisingly well at catching onto different solutions earlier.     It will be interesting to see if the 12Z ECMWF goes in that direction.     It seems like when the GEM is onto something then the ECMWF quickly follows suit.      The GEM can also be frequently lost so it might not mean anything.  

gem_z500a_namer_33.png

The GFS is the only model that drops the trough right over us and gives us anything more than a sprinkle in the next 10 days.

We all know how this will end up. Some clouds. A few days of cooler than average temps. Zero or close to zero rain. Then, progressively hotter until we get to record breaking territory. 

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1 minute ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The GFS is the only model that drops the trough right over us and gives us anything more than a sprinkle in the next 10 days.

We all know how this will end up. Some clouds. A few days of cooler than average temps. Zero or close to zero rain. Then, progressively hotter until we get to record breaking territory. 

Sounds like you have been paying attention for the past 8 years. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Still standing by my earlier prediction. Transient troughy window followed by more ridging mid-June.

More sustained troughing doesn’t arrive until the last 7-10 days of the month.

That trough this weekend / early next week is looking pretty exceptional though.  The EPS drops the PNA to almost -6.  Not sure I've ever seen it that low in June.  Can't wait to see how the details work out with it.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

That trough this weekend / early next week is looking pretty exceptional though.  The EPS drops the PNA to almost -6.  Not sure I've ever seen it that low in June.  Can't wait to see how the details work out with it.

Yeah... it looks really impressive for a period that supposedly does not favor western troughing.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like the Southern Plains pulled off a cool/wet May. June looks to start the same way. Highs across much of Oklahoma only in the 70s the next few days. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... it looks really impressive for a period that supposedly does not favor western troughing.  

In this era of rapid warming, a relatively pedestrian trough seems magnificent. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

In this era of rapid warming, a relatively pedestrian trough seems magnificent. 

Same with the trough last week that buried Montana in snow and shattered records from the 1950s.   😄

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Same with the trough last week that buried Montana in snow and shattered records from the 1950s.   😄

Wow it got cold 800 miles away. I bet it snows on top of Mt. Rainier this weekend!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Gfs looks quite a bit wetter than the euro. Still not really a wrap euro could come around. 

Monthly rainfall-0.57”

Cold season rainfall-15.72”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow it got cold 800 miles away. I bet it snows on top of Mt. Rainier this weekend!

Point is... there was a record shattering trough into the West just last week.    Somehow that can happen but Oregon is nothing but warm and dry forever.   🙄

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Same with the trough last week that buried Montana in snow and shattered records from the 1950s.   😄

Nothing of note has happened here since the Labor Day firestorm of 2020 that's my main takeaway. And OR is going to have another hot and dry summer.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Point is... there was a record shattering trough into the West just last week.    Somehow that can happen but Oregon is nothing but warm and dry forever.   🙄

I think it is pretty clear the warming has been pushing north aggressively from the south, so Montana should enjoy it while they still can. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Nothing of note has happened here since the Labor Day firestorm of 2020 that's my main takeaway. And OR is going to have another hot and dry summer.

Pretty amazing Oregon has had a hot dry summer every year since 2013. 

2006- TORCH

2007 - normalish

2008 - Two major heatwaves, variable. 

2009 - TORCH

2010 - normal

2011 - cool

2012 - coolish

2013-2021 - TORCH

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Time waits for no one. We’ll all be dead relatively soon, many returning to a state of incontinence and incoherence in an even warmer climate yet preceding our meaningless passing after which the water inside our bodies will quickly evaporate. Ashes to ashes, dust to dust.

Happy June y’all!!!🤗🤗🤗

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Time waits for no one. We’ll all be dead relatively soon, many returning to a state of incontinence and incoherence in an even warmer climate yet preceding our meaningless passing after which the water inside our bodies will quickly evaporate. Ashes to ashes, dust to dust.

Happy June y’all!!!🤗🤗🤗

This is all undeniably true!

And nature will continue to adjust accordingly to an ever-changing climate.   From palm trees and alligators at the poles to ice covering the equator... the Earth has seen it all and change is the only constant in the universe. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Time waits for no one. We’ll all be dead relatively soon, many returning to a state of incontinence and incoherence in an even warmer climate yet preceding our meaningless passing after which the water inside our bodies will quickly evaporate. Ashes to ashes, dust to dust.

Happy June y’all!!!🤗🤗🤗

Very true. I think about this often, but as mortal beings we wish to cling to hope that there is some meaning in existence. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... it looks really impressive for a period that supposedly does not favor western troughing.  

It’s not favorable, just a bit fluky. Short lived. By mid-June the system state is flat out hostile for western troughs. From what I can see, at least.

But I think late June sees things change in a hurry. Classic VP signature with favorable AAM tendency.

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Very true. I think about this often, but as mortal beings we wish to cling to hope that there is some meaning in existence. 

The concept of self/ego is nothing more than a fantastic illusion. Which is where your existentialism stems from.

There always “is”. There is no “isn’t”. The latter cannot exist because it cannot exist by definition. Materialism is a century old relic.

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12Z ECMWF definitely trending farther offshore with the trough next week.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF definitely trending farther offshore with the trough next week.

June 2015

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF definitely trending farther offshore with the trough next week.

Actually looks a bit better by D8. Trough axis less split/positively tilted & could make more inland progress.

Though the Aleutian ridge is also further west so could cancel out.

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Actually looks better towards the end. Trough less positively tilted and would make more inland progress.

Yeah... just watching the trends in the 7-10 day period at this point.  Its unlikely that is has that time frame nailed down yet.   This is a pretty complicated pattern.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... just watching the trends in the 7-10 day period at this point.  Its unlikely that is has that time frame nailed down yet.   This is a pretty complicated pattern.

“Pretty complicated” is an understatement lol. In many years this pattern wouldn’t even exist at this point in the intraseasonal cycle.

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14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

June 2015

RIP Cottage Grove to Salem's east side at least.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

RIP Cottage Grove to Salem's east side at least.

Was nice knowing you. :(

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Was nice knowing you. :(

We'll be ok because we will have fire bags packed and ready to go by late July. I will have 3 huge totes for our most-valuable stuff. I'm going to make sure I take pictures of the devastation though.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

New Cansips seasonal is out. If this VP200 signature verifies, expect a very happy Jesse/Andrew et al.

BF705090-1CEB-4F6F-A64D-49269CE7B7BF.png

Can you explain how to interpret this map that way? Maybe you should start a patreon. Id give you like 10 bucks a month and it would allow me some number of "Explainers" or something

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2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Can you explain how to interpret this map that way? Maybe you should start a patreon. Id give you like 10 bucks a month and it would allow me some number of "Explainers" or something

I think it just means a higher potential for active weather 

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Up to 86F. Looks like our first 90F is pretty likely down this way.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Can you explain how to interpret this map that way? Maybe you should start a patreon. Id give you like 10 bucks a month and it would allow me some number of "Explainers" or something

Basically, where there’s green, there is anomalously enhanced deep tropical convection & upper level divergence. Under the orange convection is anomalously suppressed under upper level convergence and subsidence.

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Yet again, Tim sits in a tiny wedge of green, surrounded by drought on all sides. :lol:

Feels scripted..like ma’ nature reads this forum and enjoys trolling.

 

6777B753-EC58-4169-9E1C-B2F2C70C8A88.jpeg

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76 here now...could definitely see us getting up to 85 today. Too hot. 

Monthly rainfall-0.57”

Cold season rainfall-15.72”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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84 at SLE. Meh. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yet again, Tim sits in a tiny wedge of green, surrounded by drought on all sides. :lol:

Feels scripted..like ma’ nature reads this forum and enjoys trolling.

 

6777B753-EC58-4169-9E1C-B2F2C70C8A88.jpeg

 

Like I said... we are close to drought proof here with the c-zone always in play even when everyone else misses out on precipitation from troughing.   Its never a concern here.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Good run for people who want rain in western WA...dry in OR though unfortunately. 

Monthly rainfall-0.57”

Cold season rainfall-15.72”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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18 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Good run for people who want rain in western WA...dry in OR though unfortunately. 

It will continue to trend north and west. BC and SE Alaska will get orders of magnitude more rain than we will. Extreme NW Washington will still do well.

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4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Up to a toasty 86 degrees with not a single cloud in the sky. Taste of summer.

I generally try not to interact with you, but our current weather is quite similar.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Up to a toasty 86 degrees with not a single cloud in the sky. Taste of summer.

More than a taste. That would be 10 degrees above average even in late July.

Equivalent to 100 degrees here.

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Already 80 here....working outside in the garden today is not a lot of fun 😂

  • Sun 1

Monthly rainfall-0.57”

Cold season rainfall-15.72”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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Despite all my bitching and moaning I will say. I slept outside last night and it was nice. It also felt nice this morning. If we get a few days like this in July and August after a wet June I will not complain...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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