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June 2021 Pacific Northwest Obs


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59 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm just bummed you can't enjoy the obviously wild temperature roller coaster we are on.  All in all it's been pretty dynamic.  We've even had two impressive wind events up here in the last couple of weeks.

It went from 94 here on Tuesday to 62 here yesterday. We are experiencing the temp swings too.

The north south difference is being overblown as usual. You guys have pretty much been warmer and way drier than average on the whole the last few months, just like down here. The BC numbers Shawnigan posted kind of corroborate that. The relatively small differences are being overstated both by people who are in desperate need of something to complain about in order to maintain their climatological victim stance, and/or are in desperate need of something to celebrate in a rapidly warming climate.

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Trying to think of ways y’all can avoid a hot garbage pattern in Aug/Sep. Going to be tough..will have to thread the needle.

In the case of September, every single analog I’ve referenced has a western ridge signal.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Trying to think of ways y’all can avoid a hot garbage pattern in Aug/Sep. Going to be tough..will have to thread the needle.

In the case of September, every single analog has a western ridge signal.

A ridgy September is pretty normal following a Nina summer. Although this hasn't really behaved like a normal Nina so maybe that will work in our favor the other way at the back end of the warm season, although I wouldn't hold my breath.

Odds are we get a June and maybe July if we're lucky that struggle to stay less than a degree or so above normal, then roast our a$$es off in August/September.

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Was kind of hoping that we'd get enough rain so I wouldn't have to water the garden, but so far this month still only at 0.22" which is not quite enough for some of the veggies. Meanwhile, this weekend I was over near Chelan and it was kind of fun to have snow flurries coming down on me at 4,000 ft. The drive over Steven's last night though had just some light rain. I went over just before that big batch of heavy precipitation moved through.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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45 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Your right that it’s not even worth it really. I even got rid of the last post. Just more attention for someone who already gets way to much considering their actual lack of significance. It’s like CNN with Trump.

Honestly I’d be sad if either you or Tim left. This place just wouldn’t be the same.

I feel your pain, man. Our summer pattern has been starting earlier, lasting longer, and is just more stable overall these days, similar to yours. Cold fronts don’t even make it here anymore in Jul/Aug..just stall right at the Mason Dixon line. Doing a number on White Pine and Northern Red Oak.

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Over the last 2 years... the north/south gradient is real.   

Side note... this map has issues in the Seattle area and its really been wetter than normal there as well.    But it still paints a general picture of wetter to the north and drier to the south. 

anomimage (2).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Honestly I’d be sad if either you or Tim left. This place just wouldn’t be the same.

I feel your pain, man. Our summer pattern has been starting earlier, lasting longer, and is just more stable overall these days, similar to yours. Cold fronts don’t even make it here anymore in Jul/Aug..just stall right at the Mason Dixon line. Doing a number on White Pine and Northern Red Oak.

Ice age is starting any week though right?

It's unlikely I ever make a hard break with this place, but I have definitely noticed I feel less and less inspired to post lately. The atmosphere feels toxic here and I often feel like it brings out the worst in even me. 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Over the last 2 years... the north/south gradient is real.   

Side note... this map has issues in the Seattle area and its really been wetter than normal there as well.    But it still paints a general picture of wetter to the north and drier to the south. 

anomimage (2).png

Poleward-broadening Hadley Cell descending branch evident there. Though believe it or not, GCMs can only explain a fraction of the HC expansion. It’s been ongoing for centuries..a good chunk of it is likely to be internal variability.

Things were actually worse in the MWP re: broad HC/4CH, though we’ve been quickly approaching those conditions in recent decades. Hopefully not a multi-century megadrought like that one.

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Ice age is starting any week though right?

It's unlikely I ever make a hard break with this place, but I have definitely noticed I feel less and less inspired to post lately. The atmosphere feels toxic here and I often feel like it brings out the worst in even me. 

I understand that, don’t blame you. I also lose interest during the dog days..the only that keeps me engaged is thunderstorm activity..if that goes quiet I go quiet too.

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15 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Was kind of hoping that we'd get enough rain so I wouldn't have to water the garden, but so far this month still only at 0.22" which is not quite enough for some of the veggies. Meanwhile, this weekend I was over near Chelan and it was kind of fun to have snow flurries coming down on me at 4,000 ft. The drive over Steven's last night though had just some light rain. I went over just before that big batch of heavy precipitation moved through.

Wow I had that amount just this morning! 

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wow I had that amount just this morning! 

I think people who live in areas routinely affected by the CZ can get a pretty warped idea of what the rest of the region is experiencing, both to the north and south.

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The swamp trash has arrived early. ūü§Ę Woke up to¬†windows and doors dripping¬†with¬†condensation. Usually that doesn‚Äôt start until late June.¬†

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28 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Just for fun, both the PDX and Langely Hill radars are not currently operational.

KRTX is down for upgrades/maintenance with it coming back online on June 10th and KLGX went down yesterday after the first shortwave (post frontal) began to move ashore, NWS KSEA stated they had technicians investigating yesterday afternoon with no ETA.

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3 minutes ago, JBolin said:

KRTX is down for upgrades/maintenance with it coming back online on June 10th and KLGX went down yesterday after the first shortwave (post frontal) began to move ashore, NWS KSEA stated they had technicians investigating yesterday afternoon with no ETA.

Did you move to Sweden ūüáłūüá™ yet?

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Poleward-broadening Hadley Cell descending branch evident there. Though believe it or not, GCMs can only explain a fraction of the HC expansion. It’s been ongoing for centuries..a good chunk of it is likely to be internal variability.

Things were actually worse in the MWP re: broad HC/4CH, though we’ve been quickly approaching those conditions in recent decades. Hopefully not a multi-century megadrought like that one.

Phil, can we please get some sort of link in your sig for an acronym glossary and simple definitions for a boob like me?

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50¬†(Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3¬†(Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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New 12Z ECMWF is much wetter and cooler for next Monday... trough does not dig as far offshore and comes back inland sooner.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-precip_12hr_inch-3715200.png

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12 hours ago, Jesse said:

Ice age is starting any week though right?

It's unlikely I ever make a hard break with this place, but I have definitely noticed I feel less and less inspired to post lately. The atmosphere feels toxic here and I often feel like it brings out the worst in even me. 

It’s pretty clear you’ve crossed some invisible threshold to where almost of your time here is spent projecting negativity and obsessing over points of perception. It’s supposed to be fun. If it isn’t, it should definitely make you think.

Believe it or not, I’d miss you if you left.  But you’re not leaving. We all know that. You just as much as me can’t put down the pipe.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It’s pretty clear you’ve crossed some invisible threshold to where almost of your time here is spent projecting negativity and obsessing over points of perception. It’s supposed to be fun. If it isn’t, I should definitely make you think.

Believe it or not, I’d miss you if you left.  But you’re not leaving. We all know that. You just as much as me can’t put down the pipe.

You’re right, and lately I will notice I usually feel more aggravated and drained after visiting here than anything. It’s my own battle to fight since I know there are many underlying dynamics here that aren’t going anywhere. But I do think it’s good to take a step back from time to time, even though I will ultimately always be drawn into the forum’s orbit to some extent.

Sometimes I think if this place stresses me out I wonder how someone who posts about ten times more beating a dead horse from endlessly creative angles must feel on the inside. Almost gotta have sympathy at some level.

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9 minutes ago, Jesse said:

You’re right, and lately I will notice I usually feel more aggravated and drained after visiting here than anything. It’s my own battle to fight since I know there are many underlying dynamics here that aren’t going anywhere. But I do think it’s good to take a step back from time to time, even though I will ultimately always be drawn into the forum’s orbit to some extent.

Sometimes I think if this place stresses me out I wonder how someone who posts about ten times more beating a dead horse from endlessly creative angles must feel on the inside. Almost gotta have sympathy at some level.

Always projecting.   I often think that about you.  

And you are one of the biggest instigators of this preference crap.    You never let it die... because it greatly bothers you when people have different opinions which you deem wrong.  There are numerous people on here who love cold and rain and there are no issues with me and those other people.   Ever.   I don't mock or belittle them.   You never stop mocking or belittling.    And I am sure that you are really just mad at nature and need someone to beat up so you feel better.

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

To make the preference wars go away, ban T and J.

It rhymes!

That hurts, especially coming from a budding preference warrior like yourself. ;)

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9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The Euro says it might be sunny on my birthday!  Thank you Jengus!

My birthday is on August 4th, which is on average the warmest day of the year with an average high of 86.5 at HIO.

Blessed by the sun gods!

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13 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The Euro says it might be sunny on my birthday!  Thank you Jengus!

When is your birthday?    Got to get your gift mailed out.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12Z EPS is much cooler next Monday as well... the really warm day that the 00Z run showed is gone now with the trough not digging so far offshore.     Still looks warm for Kayla though.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-3715200.png

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Suck Up Yes Man GIF by Noise Nest Network

I also think you are paranoid.¬† ¬†But another good example of initiating mean-spirited mocking on your own.¬†¬†ūüĎć

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57 here at noon...already 3 degrees warmer than yesterday’s high temp. Some showers down in the SW interior but they’ve been fizzling before making it up this way so far today. 

Monthly rainfall-0.00‚ÄĚ

Warm season rainfall-5.26‚ÄĚ

+80s-26

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

57 here at noon...already 3 degrees warmer than yesterday’s high temp. Some showers down in the SW interior but they’ve been fizzling before making it up this way so far today. 

Partly sunny here... much quieter day but still very chilly for June.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

When is your birthday?    Got to get your gift mailed out.  

A ski boat won‚Äôt fit in our mailbox. ‚ėĻÔłŹ

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah, much better Euro run.

Yep looks like a good amount of it comes in the next 5 days too. First Image is through hour 120 and the second is the total run. Good amount of rain coming for WA/OR in the believable range. 

0AA29CD7-C6BC-4A87-BCF8-8E4747368686.jpeg

5B8BFFCD-12A9-4419-95D2-DFCDF45E1165.jpeg

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Monthly rainfall-0.00‚ÄĚ

Warm season rainfall-5.26‚ÄĚ

+80s-26

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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47 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Did you move to Sweden ūüáłūüá™ yet?

Oof I won't tell Finnish folks that you messed that one up. Finland is a bit salty towards the Swedes. Finland is definitely on my bucket list and going to Jyväskylä in the winter, experiencing the serenity of the Kaamos.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50¬†(Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3¬†(Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yep looks like a good amount of it comes in the next 5 days too. First Image is through hour 120 and the second is the total run. Good amount of rain coming for WA/OR in the believable range. 

0AA29CD7-C6BC-4A87-BCF8-8E4747368686.jpeg

5B8BFFCD-12A9-4419-95D2-DFCDF45E1165.jpeg

I don’t think I’ve seen any thunderstorms this year so far and hopefully I’ll get to see at least one this month. And hopefully not a dry thunderstorm!

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Just now, Omegaraptor said:

I don’t think I’ve seen any thunderstorms this year so far and hopefully I’ll get to see at least one this month. And hopefully not a dry thunderstorm!

Yeah maybe we will squeeze some convection out of this pattern. 2021 has lacked in thunderstorms here as well compared to 2020 and 2019. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.00‚ÄĚ

Warm season rainfall-5.26‚ÄĚ

+80s-26

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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40 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS is much cooler next Monday as well... the really warm day that the 00Z run showed is gone now with the trough not digging so far offshore.     Still looks warm for Kayla though.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-3715200.png

Troughs keep digging too far offshore kicking a ridge right over us.ūü•Ķ

Can't complain too much though, it is a good thunderstorm pattern and has already produced some solid rainfall totals this month with more to come this week.

Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 140.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 20.0"

Coldest high: -7.0¬ļ

Coldest low: -21¬ļ

Number of subzero days: 12

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Heading back home now from Seattle... that brings me to something I noticed on the way here but haven’t posted about. 

The wiki article states that the joint base Lewis-McChord near Tacoma is one of few places in western WA where ponderosa pine is native. Riding  by and paying attention to the vegetation there, it is quite savanna-like, lots of oak trees and ponderosa pine as well. Apparently the soil is very well drained in that location. Plenty of articles exist online to go down the rabbit hole of ponderosa pine variants in the PNW. There was also a singular digger pine near the base, complete with massive cones, obviously not native this far north though.

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2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Heading back home now from Seattle... that brings me to something I noticed on the way here but haven’t posted about. 

The wiki article states that the joint base Lewis-McChord near Tacoma is one of few places in western WA where ponderosa pine is native. Riding  by and paying attention to the vegetation there, it is quite savanna-like, lots of oak trees and ponderosa pine as well. Apparently the soil is very well drained in that location. Plenty of articles exist online to go down the rabbit hole of ponderosa pine variants in the PNW. There was also a singular digger pine near the base, complete with massive cones, obviously not native though.

In Western Oregon I have noticed the Scio area has a number of ponderosas. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Heading back home now from Seattle... that brings me to something I noticed on the way here but haven’t posted about. 

The wiki article states that the joint base Lewis-McChord near Tacoma is one of few places in western WA where ponderosa pine is native. Riding  by and paying attention to the vegetation there, it is quite savanna-like, lots of oak trees and ponderosa pine as well. Apparently the soil is very well drained in that location. Plenty of articles exist online to go down the rabbit hole of ponderosa pine variants in the PNW. There was also a singular digger pine near the base, complete with massive cones, obviously not native though.

I have noticed the same thing about that area.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Couple decades and they'll be growing comfortably here.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50¬†(Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3¬†(Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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24 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Couple decades and they'll be growing comfortably here.

Ponderosa and incense cedar are already relatively common down there.

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Ponderosa and incense cedar are already relatively common down there.

Once the Doug Firs all die and get burned then they'll grow even more easily.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50¬†(Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3¬†(Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

24

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2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Raining in Olympia

Yeah the rain just hasn’t been able to push north of thurston county today. Partly sunny and 61 here still a fairly cool day. 

Monthly rainfall-0.00‚ÄĚ

Warm season rainfall-5.26‚ÄĚ

+80s-26

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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