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Looks like showers are moving from SE to NW today. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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Approaching 24 hours in which it’s been raining for over 90% of the time here. Just glorious and way overdue. Moderate rain currently.

Here are those pictures, I think my favorite is the one where the sunset almost seems to be illuminating the clouds from underneath  

Russell Wilson showed up at my son's flag football game today. Apparently his son plays on one of the other teams in the league. My son lost his game but said it didn't matter since he got to meet Rus

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Maybe we will be able to move on from the really cold air mass overhead right now to something more moderate to possibly warm eventually.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1623153600-1623153600-1624449600-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Also interesting to note that warm air mass anomalies pulsate on the EPS in the warm season like cold air masses in the winter.  The anomalies actually increase at night though so the EPS must calculate the normal 850mb temp differently at night than it does during the day.    We see the same thing with arctic air masses in the winter.   The anomalies don't seem to pulsate over water though.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

All the models now show that huge trough offshore just vanishing early next week.   Pretty interesting... top image is Monday morning per the 12Z ECMWF and bottom is Wednesday. 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3672000.png

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3888000.png

Yeah it’s a stealthy retrogression. What’ll probably happen is that ridge will blow up over the west coast for a week then discontinuously retrograde out into the GOA later in the month. Reminds me of 2016. 

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Check out that large scale subsidence building in the WPAC towards the end of the 12z EPS with forcing propagating into the IO. That’s a classic multiyear -ENSO VP200 signal that will inevitably put trades right over the IPWP-to-dateline sector.

Also strongly suggestive as to how things may evolve heading into July (heavy skew to La Niña base state, -PNA).

754E48F1-89EC-4A5C-9346-ADE9ECDEE751.png

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14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Check out that large scale subsidence building in the WPAC towards the end of the 12z EPS with forcing propagating into the IO. That’s a classic multiyear -ENSO VP200 signal that will inevitably put trades right over the IPWP-to-dateline sector.

Also strongly suggestive as to how things may evolve heading into July (heavy skew to La Niña base state, -PNA).

754E48F1-89EC-4A5C-9346-ADE9ECDEE751.png

The first 10 days of July in 2016 were fairly cool and wet here... but then it warmed up nicely despite staying generally "troughy".   The middle of the month was pleasant and fairly sunny and then the last 10 days of the month were quite warm even out here (lots of mid to upper 80s).   SEA finished the month at +1.1

We discussed this in great detail 5 years ago... even had our own thread created.   😀

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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A 16-17 winter analog would be just fine for everyone here. Not that there's any correlation.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Looks like we’ve got some rain showers coming in from the south. We will see if they hold together and make it north. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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Radar is getting active.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Radar is getting active.

I think your area probably has a better shot at rain or maybe storms. We will see if the cells can drift NW off the mountains but lots of times they break down once they’ve moved off the higher terrain on days like these. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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11 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Drifting by to the west. 

22051FF6-4DB6-4AC9-9665-A1C502A6A0DB.jpeg

We will see if a few can make it down here. So far the showers are dissipating over the eatonville area before getting up here. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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22 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

We will see if a few can make it down here. So far the showers are dissipating over the eatonville area before getting up here. 

Looks like they are starting to hold together a little more but showery days seems to miss us more than hit this spring. 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

The first 10 days of July in 2016 were fairly cool and wet here... but then it warmed up nicely despite staying generally "troughy".   The middle of the month was pleasant and fairly sunny and then the last 10 days of the month were quite warm even out here (lots of mid to upper 80s).   SEA finished the month at +1.1

We discussed this in great detail 5 years ago... even had our own thread created.   😀

 

I think I remember that. 😂

I’ll leave the fine details to y’all. Not my cup of tea.

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53 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Drifting by to the west. 

22051FF6-4DB6-4AC9-9665-A1C502A6A0DB.jpeg

Got one here too. Missing us completely wile 10 miles away has had 5.8” of rain in the last hour. 🤬

F25B0AE8-0583-4B75-81E5-9205FC276C5E.jpeg

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Got one here too. Missing us completely wile 10 miles away has had 5.8” of rain in the last hour. 🤬

F25B0AE8-0583-4B75-81E5-9205FC276C5E.jpeg

Well, I don’t particularly want 5.8 inches of rain in an hour at my house but a good soaking for the lawn would be nice. 

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2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Well, I don’t particularly want 5.8 inches of rain in an hour at my house but a good soaking for the lawn would be nice. 

I want a foot of rain in 30 minutes. I want all the rain.

Sick of this Tim weather.

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54 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Looks like they are starting to hold together a little more but showery days seems to miss us more than hit this spring. 

The rain that was rapidly approaching here just fell apart as it moved in and the sun is partially out again.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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26 minutes ago, Phil said:

I want a foot of rain in 30 minutes. I want all the rain.

Sick of this Tim weather.

My oldest moved to DC last August. She spent five years in Ohio so she’s acclimated to heat and humidity but I know it’s a bit more relentless in DC. She’ll roll with it but I know she misses the PNW summertime. 

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A heavy shower has developed over my house and has dumped almost a 1/2" of rain.  Peak rainfall rate was 4.24"/hour.  The best part is during all of this I can see blue sky just to the west!

Untitled.jpg

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Fairly heavy shower moving in over the south sound. Best of it is to the west of here but still getting a bit of rain currently. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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Looks like we actually might get clipped just enough here in a bit. Fingers crossed it hits us!

 Looks like it’s starting to develop nicely now across the whole south sound into the EPSL. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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67/43 today. Not a bad spread still a negative departure. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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Looks like we got missed lol maybe later. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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49 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Fairly heavy shower moving in over the south sound. Best of it is to the west of here but still getting a bit of rain currently. 

Dripping pretty good here as well right now. High of 70 a bit ago but now 61*

low this morning was 45*

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Beautiful evening. The puppy is 8 months old today. Molly is the last of the original 4 dogs. She ll be 10 this summer, still as hyper as a puppy. 

C28DD989-3AEA-40C9-BF02-0141641A8BC0.jpeg

E9766D6B-8E0C-430B-8DE0-C339841D6E0C.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Kinda bummed we only ended up with sprinkles today but oh well. Will be getting more rain soon anyways. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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I'm a big fan of the GFS during week two.  A cool Canadian cold front drops in.  Looks delightful if it happens.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Kind of interesting how the showers around the area caused the temp to crash in the late afternoon, and now with skies clearing out it should be another chilly evening.  The month to date average is down to about normal now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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11 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Kinda bummed we only ended up with sprinkles today but oh well. Will be getting more rain soon anyways. 

We just had a pretty big rain.  At least here we did.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We just had a pretty big rain.  At least here we did.

I just like heavy rain showers and we got missed by like 5 miles to the west. Despite the decent rain a couple days ago we still could use more it’s been pretty dry lately. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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No rain here today and I am good with that after the big soaking over the last few days! Keep that rain to the south and north where it’s needed! 

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00Z ECMWF shows a very wet weekend... most of which falls from late Saturday afternoon into Monday morning.   Luckily we are heading to Spokane and Couer D'Alene from Sunday - Tuesday.  👍

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_48hr_inch-3672000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z ECMWF shows a very wet weekend... most of which falls from late Saturday afternoon into Monday morning.   Luckily we are heading to Spokane and Couer D'Alene from Sunday - Tuesday.  👍

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_48hr_inch-3672000.png

Lol dang that’d really be something, we will see how wet it actually ends up but I’d be pretty happy with this obviously. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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