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8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's almost like dry weather has become the devil to some people.

Holiday Farm Fire.jpg

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Approaching 24 hours in which it’s been raining for over 90% of the time here. Just glorious and way overdue. Moderate rain currently.

Here are those pictures, I think my favorite is the one where the sunset almost seems to be illuminating the clouds from underneath  

Russell Wilson showed up at my son's flag football game today. Apparently his son plays on one of the other teams in the league. My son lost his game but said it didn't matter since he got to meet Rus

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I agree with all of this with respect to WA. 

Every month and/or season does not need to be wetter than normal.     And SEA is just barely below average rainfall for the year anyways.   And will likely be wetter than normal for the year after this weekend and early next week.

Right...but 3 months in a row below normal isn’t normal. This was one of the driest springs on record nothing normal about it. I’m not saying the situation is critical here in Washington yet...and we’re getting some much needed rain coming up and that’ll significantly help. Again not trying to be argumentative at all here...but taking the entire yearly total of rainfall is flawed logic IMO. Just because we got plenty of rain in January and February doesn’t mean that we don’t need very much rain in the spring. Getting rain to slow the drying process in the spring and early summer is important. We’ve had plenty of average or above average rainfall years recently but we’ve not been getting rainfall when it’s really needed and thats the problem. Our warm seasons have trended drier and warmer. Jim saying the last 7 years have only had 2 below normal rainfall years is also flawed logic. We had like 50” of rain in 2017 and we had a very hot summer and had lots of wildfire problems regionally. 2020 was an average precipitation year here but we didn’t get enough rain in the spring and summer and ended up with major wildfire issues again. What’s the point of saying a whole year was wet but we didn’t get rain when it was critical to prevent or decrease wildfire chances?

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

In the climate world three months is barely a blip.  It's not the end of the world to have a few dry months.  OR has been a much different situation.  The point is the N to S gradient is very real over the past several years.

Getting a few dry months right before summer starts is a problem. Sure there is a N/S gradient to an extent but it’s not as extreme as you seem to think it is especially recently. BC had a record dry spring as well so how does that make sense?

Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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31 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Right...but 3 months in a row below normal isn’t normal. This was one of the driest springs on record nothing normal about it. I’m not saying the situation is critical here in Washington yet...and we’re getting some much needed rain coming up and that’ll significantly help. Again not trying to be argumentative at all here...but taking the entire yearly total of rainfall is flawed logic IMO. Just because we got plenty of rain in January and February doesn’t mean that we don’t need very much rain in the spring. Getting rain to slow the drying process in the spring and early summer is important. We’ve had plenty of average or above average rainfall years recently but we’ve not been getting rainfall when it’s really needed and thats the problem. Our warm seasons have trended drier and warmer. Jim saying the last 7 years have only had 2 below normal rainfall years is also flawed logic. We had like 50” of rain in 2017 and we had a very hot summer and had lots of wildfire problems regionally. 2020 was an average precipitation year here but we didn’t get enough rain in the spring and summer and ended up with major wildfire issues again. What’s the point of saying a whole year was wet but we didn’t get rain when it was critical to prevent or decrease wildfire chances?

I understand your point.     

Important to also keep in mind that fires are part of nature... they are never going away.    I just don't worry about it too much.   We could have a very wet spring and then a hot and dry mid to late summer and still be in the same boat.   2017 is a good example of that.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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A little better. 

gfs_apcpn_nwus_23.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The 18Z GFS goes in a completely different direction next week though... with a ridge building in quickly.    I am sure the next run will be totally different.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Got up to 73F. Nice, standard June day. Partly cloudy.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I understand your point.     

Important to also keep in mind that fires are part of nature... they are never going away.    I just don't worry about it too much.   We could have a very wet spring and then a hot and dry mid to late summer and still be in the same boat.   2017 is a good example of that.  

Yeah I get that. Fires were here long before global warming. I’m just a rain fanatic as well I like big rain storms and keeping statistics on statistics on it. I understand you’re not as big of a rain fan as I am but still glad we can get along and talk about the weather! 
 Anyways 60 and mostly cloudy and breezy out here on Anderson island. Cool clouds out to the SW looks like we are going to stay dry here for now. 

DC86D2B4-1E2A-47F4-9B03-03F4554A8FF5.jpeg

D1EDFDD1-3894-44AA-9C6D-29D61AA8B297.jpeg

020E4405-216B-4A14-987E-171B0C20E819.jpeg

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah I get that. Fires were here long before global warming. I’m just a rain fanatic as well I like big rain storms and keeping statistics on statistics on it. I understand you’re not as big of a rain fan as I am but still glad we can get along and talk about the weather! 
 Anyways 60 and mostly cloudy and breezy out here on Anderson island. Cool clouds out to the SW looks like we are going to stay dry here for now. 

DC86D2B4-1E2A-47F4-9B03-03F4554A8FF5.jpeg

D1EDFDD1-3894-44AA-9C6D-29D61AA8B297.jpeg

020E4405-216B-4A14-987E-171B0C20E819.jpeg

I totally understand being a fanatic about something... nothing wrong with that.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looking like a mostly clear night with sub 540 thicknesses on tap tonight.  Pretty rare for June.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Interestingly... the 00Z GFS is following the new solution that the 18Z run showed.    Quicker return to ridging.

Still shows copious rain before that as well but the weekend will probably not be a total washout.   A good deal of the daytime hours are dry on Saturday and Sunday on this run and it will probably be warm and humid.

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-3844800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It will be fun tracking this system. 

Gorgeous day today with temps pushing 67° on the eastside.

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Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6", 2/15

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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The next 8 days per the 00Z GEFS... very strange progression.     The trough lingers in the same place for a long time and then just exits stage left in a hurry.

Also looks like a hint of the 4CH forming next week?  

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1623283200-1623283200-1623974400-10.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The next 8 days per the 00Z GEFS... very strange progression.     The trough lingers in the same place for a long time and then just exits stage left in a hurry.

Also looks like a hint of the 4CH forming next week?  

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1623283200-1623283200-1623974400-10.gif

Looks ok to me. That’s a discontinuous retrogression.

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54 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The next 8 days per the 00Z GEFS... very strange progression.     The trough lingers in the same place for a long time and then just exits stage left in a hurry.

Also looks like a hint of the 4CH forming next week?  

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1623283200-1623283200-1623974400-10.gif

Looks pretty believable to me. After a week+ of troughing here, it would make sense for that ridging to retrograde over us and bring some heat for the later part of next week.

Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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The ECMWF lightning forecast shows some action Sunday afternoon for the Western Lowlands.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Down to 52F and mostly clear.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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52 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Looks pretty believable to me. After a week+ of troughing here, it would make sense for that ridging to retrograde over us and bring some heat for the later part of next week.

00Z ECMWF has other plans... it brings rain back by the weekend again.   Of course. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

 

I had the pleasure of meeting the man that directed that. Originally from Montana and now lives in the LA area.

He actually didn't want to ever reveal the mystery here but ABC forced him to.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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4 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I had the pleasure of meeting the man that directed that. Originally from Montana and now lives in the LA area.

He actually didn't want to ever reveal the mystery here but ABC forced him to.

Did you tell him about your house burning down?

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6 hours ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Can you post? 

I had to look it up... never saw this before.    I guess it predicts lightning? 

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-lightning_density_inst-1623304800-1623304800-1623628800-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Oh no. It’s raining. Day ruined. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I'm bummed.  The stupid clouds came in here last night and messed up the min.  SEA actually got cooler than it did here.  Pretty impressive run of chilly mins for them.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Pretty decent GOA ridge / weak NW trough signal as we get deeper into week two.  That combo usually brings very pleasant weather and keeps the heat pushed away from us.  Meanwhile SEA is down to just a +0.2 month to date departure now.  Really nice drop after the very warm start.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Just now, AlTahoe said:

My heater kicked on this morning. I currently have it set to 60F. It got down to 26F this morning! 

60 is really cold for a house temperature.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Skies ended up clearing nicely for sunset yesterday. 

C9D12CDB-8C50-4DA4-B4DD-D565277B5603.jpeg

6DB07D7A-E48A-4C3E-A048-1B4635B786A4.jpeg

A97CFB18-85C5-4B7A-BA1E-F3E1E9077B36.jpeg

That is gorgeous... is that public land and do you need a permit to camp there?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is gorgeous... is that public land and do you need a permit to camp there?

Yeah it’s public land it’s Andy’s marine park on the west side of Anderson. There’s only 2 campsites in the whole place. You can reserve online...only drawback is if you come in with a vehicle you need to hike gear 1 mile in. I did that this time but sometimes I bring my gear in by kayak to avoid the hike. Reservation is no cost either. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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