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That 4-corners drought is getting real ugly already. The 00z ECMWF shows the type of pattern I was concerned would set up this summer..monster 4CH and NPAC ridge tendency that may spare PNW region, but roast the rest of the West (and eventually the rest of country as the high grows).

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Approaching 24 hours in which it’s been raining for over 90% of the time here. Just glorious and way overdue. Moderate rain currently.

Russell Wilson showed up at my son's flag football game today. Apparently his son plays on one of the other teams in the league. My son lost his game but said it didn't matter since he got to meet Rus

Here are those pictures, I think my favorite is the one where the sunset almost seems to be illuminating the clouds from underneath  

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Just now, Farmboy said:

Miserable, cold, wet and nasty day in central Idaho. It's been non-stop rain since about 2am.  Current temp: 37°. Upside is it's only one day.

That’s beautiful weather, what on earth u smoking man.

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

That 4-corners drought is getting real ugly already. The 00z ECMWF shows the type of pattern I was concerned would set up this summer..monster 4CH and NPAC ridge tendency that may spare PNW region, but roast the rest of the West (and eventually the rest of country as the high grows).

Hopefully we stay in the goldilocks zone. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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28 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hopefully we stay in the goldilocks zone. 

I think you will, at least until August. Going to be tough to avoid some late-summer hot garbage, though.

Or I could be full of it. Who knows.

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2 minutes ago, Farmboy said:

I thought the rain was stopping, but it is actually beginning to switch over to snow!  

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_1.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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EPS still gung-ho on late month WPAC subsidence, more of a west-based -ENSO VP200 signature.

In all likelihood this coming warm up will be brief.

C6FE8AA0-A4DD-4A6D-9FCC-B4ED89A3F782.png

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The control run really takes it up a notch at the end. Lots of ensemble members with a similar signature.

0F71EC5D-A918-4252-9EC3-F253BEB5A25F.png

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33 minutes ago, Farmboy said:

I was in Stanley, Idaho a few days ago and saw that sub freezing lows were coming so I high tailed it outta there.  Stanley is at 6,200 feet.  

 

Stanley literally has a subalpine climate with some of the coldest low temps of any inhabited town in the US.  This is not surprising.

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Very interested to see how this pattern coming up progresses. Should wind up with a pretty good amount of rain...anomalously high DPs and possibly some thunderstorms. Basically a June Pineapple Express. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.14”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.02”

Warmest high temp-84

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21 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Sub-arctic?

Wikipedia likes to use subarctic as a blanket term, but Stanley is at 44°N, nowhere near the sub-Arctic (likewise Crater Lake, Leadville, West Yellowstone, Tioga Pass, etc). Subarctic better fits places like Yellowknife, Anchorage, and Fort McMurray that are at high latitude.

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The models have kind of backed away from the flow becoming SSE early next week.  Might be kind of marginal for thunder.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The models have kind of backed away from the flow becoming SSE early next week.  Might be kind of marginal for thunder.

It’s still a few days out so it’s early to call it either way at this point.

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.14”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.02”

Warmest high temp-84

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

The control run really takes it up a notch at the end. Lots of ensemble members with a similar signature.

0F71EC5D-A918-4252-9EC3-F253BEB5A25F.png

Quite the La Nina signal there.  Positive 200mb Z is a hallmark of a Nina.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 hour ago, Farmboy said:

I was in Stanley, Idaho a few days ago and saw that sub freezing lows were coming so I high tailed it outta there.  Stanley is at 6,200 feet.  

 

What's wrong with sub freezing lows?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 hours ago, Phil said:

That 4-corners drought is getting real ugly already. The 00z ECMWF shows the type of pattern I was concerned would set up this summer..monster 4CH and NPAC ridge tendency that may spare PNW region, but roast the rest of the West (and eventually the rest of country as the high grows).

It's a very good question whether the Pacific High will be able to pull off over-ruling the 4CH here.  It used to happen much more often.  I think this is a cyclical thing.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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18 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Wikipedia likes to use subarctic as a blanket term, but Stanley is at 44°N, nowhere near the sub-Arctic (likewise Crater Lake, Leadville, West Yellowstone, Tioga Pass, etc). Subarctic better fits places like Yellowknife, Anchorage, and Fort McMurray that are at high latitude.

There are temperature parameters that have to be met.  Latitude has nothing to do with it.  Technically there is a pretty good area in WA that is sub-Arctic.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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25 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Wikipedia likes to use subarctic as a blanket term, but Stanley is at 44°N, nowhere near the sub-Arctic (likewise Crater Lake, Leadville, West Yellowstone, Tioga Pass, etc). Subarctic better fits places like Yellowknife, Anchorage, and Fort McMurray that are at high latitude.

On a similarly pedantic note, California (eeeeee!!!!) is thousands of miles from the Mediterranean.

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The latest GFS runs are going for a max 10 to 15 below normal for the Puget Sound area tomorrow.  The ECMWF isn't quite on board with that however...at least through the 6z run.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Medford had a t'storm with hail yesterday. None of that over here but there may have been lightning strikes south of the border.

 

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (1)
05/14, 06/--
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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Not liking the trend for thunder.  The ECMWF is still reasonably wet, but nothing exceptional.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Looks tomorrow will be another quite cool day.  The ECMWF is going for 60 and the GFS around 55.  Normal is 70.  Month to date averages should be below normal after tomorrow.  Maybe even after today.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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58 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks tomorrow will be another quite cool day.  The ECMWF is going for 60 and the GFS around 55.  Normal is 70.  Month to date averages should be below normal after tomorrow.  Maybe even after today.

Might not stay that way... some warm nights this weekend and early next week and then a generally warmer pattern.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1623326400-1623326400-1624622400-10.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12z EPS still bullish on the late month p8-1-2 transition. Should see the next troughy/active period come into the picture soon, I suspect sometime around the 25th, +/- a few.

EC648D86-8B3F-4100-9A59-1A6CC49AE51B.png

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

12z EPS still bullish on the late month p8-1-2 transition. Should see the next troughy/active period come into the picture soon, I suspect sometime around the 25th, +/- a few.

EC648D86-8B3F-4100-9A59-1A6CC49AE51B.png

So I assume red is bad for the people who like summery weather?   Why would it take until well after it transition to red to show up in the models as a troughy pattern over the West?    And why are we in a very troughy pattern now give that the current situation in the WPAC?

Side note... you mentioned 2011 previously but there was a 2-week stretch in late June through the first week of July that was totally dry and pleasant here that year.   The 4th of July was actually gorgeous.     And it only rained on 5 days in July here that year and only 2 days in August which is below the statistical normal for the number of rainy days in both those months.   Of course September was the really warm and dry month.     Total rainfall at SEA was well below normal in the JAS period in 2011.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So I assume red is bad for the people who like summery weather?   Why would it take until well after it transition to red to show up in the models as a troughy pattern over the West?    And why are we in a very troughy pattern now give that the current situation in the WPAC?

Side note... you mentioned 2011 previously but there was a 2-week stretch in late June through the first week of July that was totally dry and pleasant here that year.   The 4th of July was actually gorgeous.     And it only rained on 5 days in July here that year and only 2 days in August.    Of course September was the really warm and dry month.     Total rainfall at SEA was well below normal in the JAS period in 2011.  

Red is upper level convergence/+VP, IE: subsidence/sinking (relative to climo). It’s the location that matters..in this case it’s propagating eastward over the West-Pacific associated with a developing MJO over Africa/IO.

Typically, warm season western ridging is associated with enhanced convection over the West-Pacific/Dateline region (phase 6-7). The referenced EPS graphic reflects more of a phase 8-1 transition (which often precedes an IO MJO wave).

Of course I don’t know precisely what will happen in your backyard..you mentioned 2016 ended up close to average despite upper level troughing, so perhaps that’s a possibility as well. What I do think is safe to say is the pattern should evolve into a more -PNA type state late this month, into July.

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And to answer your other question, there are variable/state-dependent lag(s) between MJO/tropics and tendencies of the middle latitude wavetrain(s). Not to mention ensemble smoothing that can cloud the propagatory components. 

We have a spurt of WPAC forcing coming up, associated with the current MJO/CCKW transit, which is why I had highlighted mid-June for a warm-up.

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6 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Breathe Johan Glans GIF by SVT

Yeah... you should talk.   That is you every single day thinking about dry weather. 😃 

I just want to learn more about it.     

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So I assume red is bad for the people who like summery weather?   Why would it take until well after it transition to red to show up in the models as a troughy pattern over the West?    And why are we in a very troughy pattern now give that the current situation in the WPAC?

Side note... you mentioned 2011 previously but there was a 2-week stretch in late June through the first week of July that was totally dry and pleasant here that year.   The 4th of July was actually gorgeous.     And it only rained on 5 days in July here that year and only 2 days in August which is below the statistical normal for the number of rainy days in both those months.   Of course September was the really warm and dry month.     Total rainfall at SEA was well below normal in the JAS period in 2011.  

July 2011 is the wettest July this century here at this location. Not saying much obviously but it was objectively a cool/wet month statistically for the region.

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8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Red is upper level convergence/+VP, IE: subsidence/sinking (relative to climo). It’s the location that matters..in this case it’s propagating eastward over the West-Pacific associated with a developing MJO over Africa/IO.

Typically, warm season western ridging is associated with enhanced convection over the West-Pacific/Dateline region (phase 6-7). The referenced EPS graphic reflects more of a phase 8-1 transition (which often precedes an IO MJO wave).

Of course I don’t know precisely what will happen in your backyard..you mentioned 2016 ended up close to average despite upper level troughing, so perhaps that’s a possibility as well. What I do think is safe to say is the pattern should evolve into a more -PNA type state late this month, into July.

Yeah... the summer of 2016 turned pretty pleasant after July 10th and then really warm in late July and August.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

July 2011 is the wettest July this century here at this location. Not saying much obviously but it was objectively a cool/wet month statistically for the region.

Interesting... was it thunderstorm related?  

SEA actually ended up perfectly normal for rainfall in July 2011 with .70 and there was only 1.03 inches out here in the Snoqualmie Valley which is drier than normal.    

Of course days with rain is what I really care about.   A month like August 2015 was dry for the vast majority of the month but still ended up much wetter than normal up here due to 3 days.   And then you have a month like July 1993 when it rained on the majority of the days.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

July 2011 is the wettest July this century here at this location. Not saying much obviously but it was objectively a cool/wet month statistically for the region.

FWIW there was a much stronger -ENSO low pass in July of 2011, so I doubt we’ll be able to match that. But it does look like a -ENSO leaning system state.

There is more WPAC OHC/+SSTA this year, however, which could be problematic heading into the tail end of summer (Aug/Sep) if there’s any sort of coupling there. Both 2016 and 2017 were -ENSO summers w/ WPAC pulses in August.

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I’ve posted this link before (Dr. Roundy’s website) but it’s a good reference for the seasonality in MJO relationships over North America.

The late July/early August period is when you really see the differences in correlations between IO/EHEM (phase 1-4) and WPAC/WHEM (phase 5-8) convection.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html

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