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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Quite an OMG change on the 6z GFS.  No heat at all.  Kind of moving toward the much troughier ECMWF solution  for week two.

Quite an OMG change on the 12Z run compared to the 06Z run... much warmer and more ridgy in the mid range.  👍

Actually its not really OMG.     Its more in line with the EPS.    And that does not mean ridiculous heat either.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Approaching 24 hours in which it’s been raining for over 90% of the time here. Just glorious and way overdue. Moderate rain currently.

Here are those pictures, I think my favorite is the one where the sunset almost seems to be illuminating the clouds from underneath  

Russell Wilson showed up at my son's flag football game today. Apparently his son plays on one of the other teams in the league. My son lost his game but said it didn't matter since he got to meet Rus

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Quite an OMG change on the 12Z run compared to the 06Z run... much warmer and more ridgy in the mid range.  👍

Actually its not really OMG.     Its more in line with the EPS.    And that does not mean ridiculous heat either.

Tim just pulled off the reverse OMG move. Today is going to be wild. 

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The 06z was a blessing. It would also be a major lesson in humility for one of our members. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The 06z was a blessing. It would also be a major lesson in humility for one of our members. 

Dude... I expect crappy weather here through July 5th.   Anything else is just a gift.   

I am just teasing Jim on his "OMG" declarations which he should know by now are the ultimate kiss of death.  😃

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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FWIW, the MJO is not in phase-8/1 right now. This is an artifact of CCKW dissociating from mean intraseasonal state. But these unfiltered RMMs cannot see that.

The higher amplitude orbit into phase-1 after D10 *is* real, however.

97209099-3381-43C1-8FB3-3584607C5D6B.gif

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One thing for sure is it's going to get dry after early next week.  Mega surface high dominates the NE Pacific after that.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Wow.  The GFS is off by 8 degrees for SEA right now.  Terrible performance.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Yeah that 12z run is the inverse-equivalent of the 06z run.

IE: Not gonna happen.

Gfs switches up so much not very consistent. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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27 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Tim just pulled off the reverse OMG move. Today is going to be wild. 

The point I was making is obviously nothing is etched in stone right now.  Much uncertainty for week two.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

Gfs switches up so much not very consistent. 

In general I'm not impressed with the GFS "upgrade".

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The point I was making is obviously nothing is etched in stone right now.  Much uncertainty for week two.

You literally just said its "for sure" going to get dry... but nothing is "for sure" in the weather world.   As we have all learned over the years.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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27 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Wow.  The GFS is off by 8 degrees for SEA right now.  Terrible performance.

Its probably a minor placement issue... its currently 63 out here with the sun still poking through the clouds.   So it was close with the low to mid 60s this morning.   

Currently 64 in North Bend:

 

nb 6-11.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its probably a minor placement issue... its currently 63 out here with the sun still poking through the clouds.   So it was close with the low to mid 60s this morning.   

16 DAY FORCAST SUN TAX SKYFALL SEA SNOT - YouTube I skipped to the part about world  news something about charging for exporting energy. 🤔

"Two thirds of households would be less likely to buy rooftop solar under a plan that could see panel owners charged for exporting energy." So WTF Tim  do you think is THAT all about? I was about to click away skimming thru it until I saw that and was like WTF? Does that sound backwards from getting people to do alt energy?

Hey I know! Let's scare newcomers back to the old grid by charging them more!

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50 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Wow.  The GFS is off by 8 degrees for SEA right now.  Terrible performance.

Looking at current temps and the projected temps at 11 a.m... it really was not terrible at all.    Lots of low to mid 60s in the north sound right now and SEA was shown to be right on the line of the cooler temps and precip.    It appears to have been just a little too far south with the warm air... but really close overall.   Just a big difference for SEA specifically since it is right on the line.    A cold anomaly lovers dream!  

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-t2m_f-3434400.png

temp 6-11.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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57° here in Shoreline with light rain. Got down to 52° for a morning low.

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6", 2/15

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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The 12Z ECMWF leaves that little ULL behind as the main trough lifts out.. like previous runs.   This keeps any ridging from forming.    Already evident that the 12Z ECMWF run will be much cooler than the GFS.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3931200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Heavier showers moving in now. Rain coming down at a nice clip. 👏

Yeah moderate rain with fat raindrops currently. Temps down to 55 now after getting to 57 earlier and 0.07” so far this morning. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Heavier showers moving in now. Rain coming down at a nice clip. 👏

Still dry here... must be an offshore flow component today.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It appears both the ECMWF and GFS were too warm for today.  The ECMWF shows SEA should be 57 right now and it's only 54.  Might have a shot at a sub 60 high today.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It appears both the ECMWF and GFS were too warm for today.  The ECMWF shows SEA should be 57 right now and it's only 54.  Might have a shot at a sub 60 high today.

Looks like the precipitation should keep going for awhile to keep the temps down. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z ECMWF leaves that little ULL behind as the main trough lifts out.. like previous runs.   This keeps any ridging from forming.    Already evident that the 12Z ECMWF run will be much cooler than the GFS.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3931200.png

CA still roasts... but the heat abruptly stops at the border. Maybe just Euro cutoff bias at play?

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Interesting...The ECMWF shows some thunder potential for the EPSL later today.  It also has higher CAPE for Sunday vs the 0z, but not much thunderstorm action being shown.  It appears Tuesday will be the best chance.  The main problem is the flow never becomes quite straight southerly enough for a major event.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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I love where the ECMWF goes in week two.  The best pattern you can have for enjoyable (not hot but sunny) weather in the summer.  A big GOA ridge is good any time of year!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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FWIW... the 12Z EPS washes out that ULL late next week and is trending in the other direction compared to its previous runs.  But the general theme of building a GOA appears to be in place on the EPS later on.  

ECMWF on top and EPS on the bottom for one week from today...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-4060800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-4060800.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Can’t wait for Saturday night-Tuesday. I get the feeling it’s going to be very active! 

91E6D723-D046-4447-A7C1-805501A9BA54.jpeg

Yeah... its a pretty interesting set up.    And exactly what was needed for western Oregon.   

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3 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

EFADCD28-EFE0-42D5-A471-EE7CBFD726A1.thumb.jpeg.38412d7a9395cf37c85e32ff8498b074.jpeg

Tiger just can’t catch a break

(yeah, I know this happens because there’s no radar near Eugene)

There’s only been 0.05” so far so that’s a pretty accurate picture.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Been raining steadily since I left it 12:30. There is seriously some people that can't drive in the rain around here. Seen 4 accidents already!

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Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6", 2/15

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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Were up to 0.84” on the month. Could definitely go over 2” on the month by the end of Tuesday. Have only had 2 June’s in the last 15 years go over 2” of rainfall. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.32”

Warm Season Rainfall-5.20”

Warmest high temp-84

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1 minute ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Somehow, Olympia, Tacoma and Seattle will trounce Eugene, Salem and Portland for rain despite models heavily favoring the I-5 corridor in Oregon leading up this event. 

Seems in Oregon it's a coast and Cascades event but all western Washington gets blasted.

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The 12z EPS has a much more impressive GOA ridge signal for week 2 than the 0z.  I'm liking this!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Can’t wait for Saturday night-Tuesday. I get the feeling it’s going to be very active! 

91E6D723-D046-4447-A7C1-805501A9BA54.jpeg

I just hope we can get some negative tilt on the trough.  That almost has a pineapple express look to it.  Interestingly 1968 and 1985 are a couple of other years that had a major moisture plume set up in June.  Years that went on to lead to some fun stuff.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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