Jump to content
The Weather Forums

June 2021 Pacific Northwest Obs


Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I was looking at the satellite loop and it shows a lot of clearing with dissipating clouds overall.

Well there is some heavy rain just about up to Puyallup... it will be over you soon.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Jesse said:

That could be true for annual averages since more warm AR type events in the winter will make up for the expansion of the warm/dry season to some degree. But summers are definitely getting longer/hotter/drier and that has been going on since well before the current drier period started in 2017. Decades really.

Hotter definitely, but the drier isn't as big of a slam dunk. July/August precip has gone down slightly over the last century, but not by too much and even in the 1800s we had a very Mediterranean precip profile with bone dry midsummers.

 And the other ends of the warm season haven't shown a really discernible long term drying trend at all really, though again the warming is apparent.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Hotter definitely, but the drier isn't as big of a slam dunk. July/August precip has gone down slightly over the last century, but not by too much and even in the 1800s we had a very Mediterranean precip profile with bone dry midsummers.

 And the other ends of the warm season haven't shown a really discernible long term drying trend at all really, though again the warming is apparent.

 

If that's indeed the case that sort of calls into question what seems to be the prevailing conventional wisdom here that a warming climate simply represents a northward march of existing climates up the I-5 corridor. Maybe it isn't that linear. Medford and Roseburg have pretty long dry seasons surrounding the summer.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

45 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

WFO SEA near your location is at 400% of normal for June right now and heavy rain is moving into Seattle now.

And plenty more tomorrow and Sunday and into Monday.

 

Ya I am also quite a bit above normal both this month and May but even with me being in the one of the wettest areas compared to normal in the PNW the last year or so.  It has still felt much drier than normal for summer than in past summers to the point where I am much more excited for rain than I ever remember being in the past during the summer months.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Hotter definitely, but the drier isn't as big of a slam dunk. July/August precip has gone down slightly over the last century, but not by too much and even in the 1800s we had a very Mediterranean precip profile with bone dry midsummers.

 And the other ends of the warm season haven't shown a really discernible long term drying trend at all really, though again the warming is apparent.

 

I really enjoy the non-trolling, non-sarcastic Justin... a wealth of weather knowledge.

  • Sad 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Hotter definitely, but the drier isn't as big of a slam dunk. July/August precip has gone down slightly over the last century, but not by too much and even in the 1800s we had a very Mediterranean precip profile with bone dry midsummers.

 And the other ends of the warm season haven't shown a really discernible long term drying trend at all really, though again the warming is apparent.

 

Jesse is right, the rain has been coming in larger chunks and not spread out as much. That is one of the expectations for the northwest in relation to global warming. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I had to turn on my windshield wipers once today....just one sweep...actually I didn't really have to, I was just curious if they still worked.

0.00" in the rain bucket, hit 68 briefly just before lunch but has been between 58-62 most of the day since.  

I'm not overly optimistic about rain chances this weekend, its not looking as bad as he WV, but definitely a step back from what I was seeing earlier in the week.

  • Sun 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

 

Ya I am also quite a bit above normal both this month and May but even with me being in the one of the wettest areas compared to normal in the PNW the last year or so.  It has still felt much drier than normal for summer than in past summers to the point where I am much more excited for rain than I ever remember being in the past during the summer months.  

I don't think its even seemed that dry since the middle of May... we had a stretch of 12 consecutive below normal days in the last part of May at SEA and many of those days with rain showers.    And then its been cool this week with rain on Saturday and then the cold rain event on Sunday and now lots of rain today and more coming this weekend.    Everything was still pretty dormant back in March and the first half of April when it was really dry.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I don't think its even seemed that dry since the middle of May... we had a stretch of 12 consecutive below normal days in the last part of May and many of those days with rain showers.    And then its been cool this week with rain on Saturday and then the cold rain event on Sunday and now lots of rain today and more coming this weekend.    Everything was still pretty dormant back in March and the first half of April when it was really dry.

We have not had the typically June gloom that I used to. Much more dynamic which I like but I was talking about our recent summers. They may have been wetter than normal for some summers but overall they have felt drier snd have definitely had more dry streaks than past summers. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

We have not had the typically June gloom that I used to. Much more dynamic which I like but I was talking about our recent summers. They may have been wetter than normal for some summers but overall they have felt drier snd have definitely had more dry streaks than past summers. 

2015, 2017, and 2018 for sure.   2019 was just the opposite.   Frequent rain and each month was progressively wetter through the summer which is very rare.     June of last year was also quite wet.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

2015, 2017, and 2018 for sure.   2019 was just the opposite.   Frequent rain and each month was progressively wetter through the summer which is very rare.     June of last year was also quite wet.

For sure but the rain has come in heavier amounts which to be honest I enjoy but number of rainy days is what has felt different in recent summers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, jcmcgaffey said:

Anyone else feel like tracking rain in the summer is becoming more and more like tracking snow in the winter around here…

Exactly what I was thinking. I don't post or usually even come to these forums in the summer but the drought situation and the desperate desire for rain is so bad that I'm here model riding in hope of seeing some decent rain. Really frustrating how we keep getting shafted....

😟

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Jesse said:

A lot of unapproved opinions flying around in here right now. Stressful night!

This is fun and interesting banter, not stressful, at least to me.  It is really interesting tracking any long term weather changes and reading others thoughts on it. Isn’t that what this forum is for?

  • Like 2
  • Troll 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow!  I was just checking out the precip for Eugene and they are having some crazy dry weather that began several years ago.  Their annual average is considerably higher than SEA, and yet most of their recent years have been much drier than SEA.  This could well be a climate shift that will last for quite some time.  Reconstructed climate data indicates droughts in the SW that lasted for centuries in the past, and it's likely that dryness did extend northward to some extent.  This is a natural cycle.  Probably too soon to say whether it's "permanent" or not, but this could be a major long lasting shift.

  • Sad 1
  • Downvote 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Wow!  I was just checking out the precip for Eugene and they are having some crazy dry weather that began several years ago.  Their annual average is considerably higher than SEA, and yet most of their recent years have been much drier than SEA.  This could well be a climate shift that will last for quite some time.  Reconstructed climate data indicates droughts in the SW that lasted for centuries in the past, and it's likely that dryness did extend northward to some extent.  This is a natural cycle.  Probably too soon to say whether it's "permanent" or not, but this could be a major long lasting shift.

New to the forum?    Tiger has been telling us this for years.   How could you just become aware of this now?  😀

  • Thanks 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

This is fun and interesting banter, not stressful, at least to me.  It is really interesting tracking any long term weather changes and reading others thoughts on it. Isn’t that what this forum is for?

I agree... I love discussing different perspectives.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The ECMWF is a bit hard to figure out.  It's showing better CAPE for Sunday with some decent rainfall, but little lightning for the Western Lowlands.  Tuesday continues to be the best chance for lightning.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pouring again in Kirkland.

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

New to the forum?    Tiger has been telling us this for years.   How could you just become aware of this now?  😀

I thought he was blowing it out of proportion.  I was pretty stunned to see just how lopsided it has been between here and there.  The people denying the N to S anomaly gradient are fooling themselves.  Obviously I knew there was some dryness going on down there, but this is pretty noteworthy.  

  • Thanks 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I thought he was blowing it out of proportion.  I was pretty stunned to see just how lopsided it has been between here and there.  The people denying the N to S anomaly gradient are fooling themselves.  Obviously I knew there was some dryness going on down there, but this is pretty noteworthy.  

Compare SEA to SLE... I am not sure I trust the EUG rain data.  

The north/south gradient is real but probably not that extreme.

Here is the big picture for the last 2 years:

 

anomimage (3).png

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF is a bit hard to figure out.  It's showing better CAPE for Sunday with some decent rainfall, but little lightning for the Western Lowlands.  Tuesday continues to be the best chance for lightning.

Great! Then it will knock out power right when Nintendo holds E3 with their Treehouse stream! Better not knock out power and we all miss out on The Switch Pro news or Switch 2,whatever.

My name for it is Switch 2 U.  Switch to You!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

This is fun and interesting banter, not stressful, at least to me.  It is really interesting tracking any long term weather changes and reading others thoughts on it. Isn’t that what this forum is for?

No. You are supposed to be angry at everyone and your posts are supposed to show that anger. 😡 

Sun is dumb. 
In other news it’s raining again! Moderate rain to be exact. 

  • Like 2
  • Sun 1
  • Weenie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

No. You are supposed to be angry at everyone and your posts are supposed to show that anger. 😡 

Sun is dumb. 
In other news it’s raining again! Moderate rain to be exact. 

Its best to downvote everything that does not match your exact preferences.    👍

  • Excited 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A 50% chance of showers on Sunday and Tuesday seems to be understating the situation a little bit...

Screenshot_20210612-000946_Google.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Caught a bit of sunlight streaming in from the west and reflecting on the mountain north and east of Snohomish this evening.

 

20210611_205656.jpg

  • Like 2

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Compare SEA to SLE... I am not sure I trust the EUG rain data.  

The north/south gradient is real but probably not that extreme.

Here is the big picture for the last 2 years:

 

anomimage (3).png

The airport shows that we have had more precip than Springfield. The data is correct but if you’re just going to blow off what I’ve ethnographically experienced then that makes me feel sad. And if our house is destroyed then I’ll take a picture in front of it and make sure you believe me.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Low of 49 this morning with some fog after that heavy rain last night. Up to 1.14” on the month and we’ve still got the next few days to get through! 

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-26

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Looking like it might be game over the Portland area. The 06z GFS gives us .10” - .30” through close to the end of June. Tonight/tomorrow keeps getting pushed further west. What a monumental bust if this verifies.

I’d bet on the euro in this situation...and the euro is farther east with the band of rain. 

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-26

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I’d bet on the euro in this situation...and the euro is farther east with the band of rain. 

Yes it is. But, it also has been trending west. Even more so with the 6z run. I’m thinking that we’re going to get clipped by this thing and end up with a quarter inch of so at PDX. The western burbs might do a lot better.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Pretty morning. Fog on the sound receding rapidly. 

7B43C519-6992-4315-A331-E2C863F1ED16.jpeg

2D030246-1B14-4550-B4E3-7BAA8DE58A60.jpeg

DBEB2189-E9B2-4307-AA15-6625FF97BBF6.jpeg

Similar low level fog layer in the valley out here too...

 

nb 6-23.png

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Looking like it might be game over the Portland area. The 06z GFS gives us .10” - .30” through close to the end of June. Tonight/tomorrow keeps getting pushed further west. What a monumental bust if this verifies.

Total rain through Tuesday per 06Z ECMWF...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-3801600.png

  • Like 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Look at it compared to the 00z. Trending west. The GFS is wayyyy west. The 12z NAM mirrors the GFS. Way west. Me thinks the Euro will continue heading west until we’re left with table scraps. 

Just saw the 12Z NAM... that is a pretty big westward shift up here from the 00Z run leading up to game time.    The 00Z run was actually a little too far west for Portland as well.

One thing to note... all of the models except for the ECMWF seem to really struggle with tropical moisture.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Also remember that the total precip maps will look less impressive overall now that the rain event yesterday and overnight last night are removed from the totals.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just saw the 12Z NAM... that is a pretty big westward shift up here from the 00Z run leading up to game time.    The 00Z run was actually a little too far west for Portland as well.

One thing to note... all of the models except for the ECMWF seem to really struggle with tropical moisture.

Seems like we’re still on track to be nailed despite a farther west track. 

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-26

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Seems like we’re still on track to be nailed despite a farther west track. 

Here is total precip just during the day tomorrow per the 06Z ECMWF... looks like your area might get significantly more rain than my area tomorrow.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_12hr_inch-3628800.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Estimated radar per the 12Z NAM at 11 p.m. tonight and 2 p.m. tomorrow... tonight might be the main event for Portland.

 

nam-nest-washington-refc_ptype-3564000.png

nam-nest-washington-refc_ptype-3618000.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • iFred unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...