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June 2021 Pacific Northwest Obs


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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS... 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1623499200-1623499200-1624795200-10.gif

Time for us to pack fire bags Andrew.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Currently working on the last ever wax job for our 35yr old Bayliner that has been in the family since basically new, getting it ready for our trip over to Lake Entiat next weekend. Going to start used boat shopping in the fall. If anyone wants to buy a piece of Lake Goodwin history, your chance is coming! Almost sunk it on the 4th of July 1992 since I had too many friends up at the bow and had a wave come and nearly swamp it...oh and I accidentally set the cover on fire during the 1993 4th of July fireworks I was lighting from the dock...Oh and blasting MC Hammer “can’t touch this” from the cassette deck trying to impress the girls a few doors down at the lake in around 1991 as I cruised past their dock 52 times...Oh the memories!! 
 

Anyway what a lovely day!! 

BC2D0B46-8768-4D97-A053-E125314C0128.jpeg

506BD7EE-29AA-42B3-A208-AAFE59F5A8F0.jpeg

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF shows temps around 70 tomorrow afternoon with dewpoints into the mid 60s.   With all of that rain falling.   Going to feel downright tropical! 

Here are dewpoint temps at 5 p.m. tomorrow:

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-dew2m_f-3628800.png

You’ve been trying to trigger me with this commentary for a few weeks now. “Mid-60s dewpoints” and “tropical” should not be used in the same sentence or paragraph. Or thesis. Seriously. 😂 

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6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

East valley to get an inch+ below 750'

over +125

under -150

Smash the under.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Sunny and 72 here... heading for the mid to upper 70s.

You would never think today would be my definition of summer perfection looking at the 500mb map.

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3499200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

You’ve been trying to trigger me with this commentary for a few weeks now. “Mid-60s dewpoints” and “tropical” should not be used in the same sentence or paragraph. Or thesis. Seriously. 😂 

Not a terribly common occurrence for this region to be fair.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Speaking of tropical, we’ve still got the classic EHEM MJO precursor signal in VP200 anomalies.

Solid -PNA/western troughing still looks like a safe bet late this month and into July. Could be pretty significant, actually..don’t want to jinx it but I’m starting to get bullish.

445E490F-9BBF-403E-BFA3-11745602FBD1.png

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

You’ve been trying to trigger me with this commentary for a few weeks now. “Mid-60s dewpoints” and “tropical” should not be used in the same sentence or paragraph. Or thesis. Seriously. 😂 

I am not trying to trigger you.   And a few weeks?  This just came into view a few days ago.

Mid 60s is unusual high for here... its going to feel strange to us and it's absolutely worth noting.   The NWS office and local  news have been talking about it as well.   It has nothing to do with you.   I don't give a flying crap what your definition of humidity is... it will be all people are talking about around here tomorrow.    

And then Monday the dewpoints are back to normal in the upper 40s.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Speaking of tropical, we’ve still got the classic EHEM MJO precursor signal in VP200 anomalies.

Solid -PNA/western troughing still looks like a safe bet late this month and into July. Could be pretty significant, too.

445E490F-9BBF-403E-BFA3-11745602FBD1.png

We will see.   It does not look as impressive as previous posts you made and the devil will be in the details.   It probably ends up being a week of cooler than normal with showers... and probably turns nicer on July 5th as usual.  😀

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

You haven’t yet? 

A few things yeah but more will be added this week.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

A few things yeah but more will be added this week.

Dude... there is almost no chance of 60mph east winds and a firestorm in June or July or even August.    A normal fire is not going to force mass evacuations of large cities.   It's only when there is really strong wind.   Let hope we don't have another wicked cold trough diving into Montana in early September.    Then I would worry.   

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13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We will see.   It does not look as impressive and the devil will be in the details.   It probably ends up being a week of cooler than normal with showers... and probably turns nicer on July 5th as usual.  😀

Looks more impressive to me now, actually. We start losing the messy wave-2 VP signature as MJO inception occurs in the IO in constructive interference w/ the Indo standing wave.

As you said..the devil is in the details. 🤓

Models will not catch the subsequent pattern change until the middle of next week, at the earlier, when large scale subsidence develops over the IPWP.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Looks more impressive to me now, actually. We start losing the messy wave-2 VP signature as MJO inception occurs in the IO in constructive interference w/ the Indo standing wave. As you said..devil is in the details. 🤓

Models will not catch the pattern change until the middle of next week, when large scale subsidence develops over the IPWP. Might even take longer.

I am sure it will show up in the models soon enough.    We don't normally have really warm 850mb temps all summer.   It comes and goes.   And late June and early July is a common time for summer troughing here.   I doubt July ends up significantly colder and wetter than normal though.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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28 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Currently working on the last ever wax job for our 35yr old Bayliner that has been in the family since basically new, getting it ready for our trip over to Lake Entiat next weekend. Going to start used boat shopping in the fall. If anyone wants to buy a piece of Lake Goodwin history, your chance is coming! Almost sunk it on the 4th of July 1992 since I had too many friends up at the bow and had a wave come and nearly swamp it...oh and I accidentally set the cover on fire during the 1993 4th of July fireworks I was lighting from the dock...Oh and blasting MC Hammer “can’t touch this” from the cassette deck trying to impress the girls a few doors down at the lake in around 1991 as I cruised past their dock 52 times...Oh the memories!! 
 

Anyway what a lovely day!! 

BC2D0B46-8768-4D97-A053-E125314C0128.jpeg

506BD7EE-29AA-42B3-A208-AAFE59F5A8F0.jpeg

Great stories!  😀

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am sure it will show up in the models soon enough.    We don't normally have really warm 850mb temps all summer.   It comes and goes.   And late June and early July is a common time for summer troughing here.   I doubt July ends up significantly colder and wetter than normal though.  

Could be wrong, but I honestly don’t see anything to support a warm July out there this year. Like, at all. Tropical forcing analogs are almost universally cool/-PNA for July, though some flip later in the month.

Maybe if everything comes together, the cool anomaly can be erased by a late month heatwave? That’s not something I’d wager on, though.

Not sure on precip. There’s a ton of variability in the analogs. I don’t think it’ll be excessively dry, though. Am more worried about Aug/Sep in that regard.

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

Could be wrong, but I honestly don’t see anything to support a warm July out there this year. Like, at all. Tropical forcing analogs are almost universally cool/-PNA for July, though some flip later in the month.

Maybe if everything comes together, the cool anomaly can be erased by a late month heatwave? That’s not something I’d wager on, though.

Not sure on precip. There’s a ton of variability in the analogs. I don’t think it’ll be excessively dry, though. Am more worried about Aug/Sep in that regard.

Probably around normal or slightly below in terms of temps.   And probably drier than normal.   But normal is pretty much dry too.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Massive troughing in late June or July doesn’t mean wet and nasty. The background state is 8 degreees on either side of 70 and drizzle or blazing hot. I expect it to be about like that this year.

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I do hope the 4th is nice. It’s my favorite day of the year.

Fireworks prices are going to be higher this year. You know. Container ships. China. Supply chain issues. Already have my order in so I’m good.

Complete waste of money but so much fun. Beer, dogs and fireworks. The neighborhood depends on me.

Might even burn a cigar or two.

Hope the humidity tomorrow is noticeable. I really like how it feels for a day or two.

Anyone know if capes will be high enough for a light show or some lightning?

 

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Up to 84F. Nice day!

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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71 with a DP of 57 with some high clouds. Feels muggy already but add another 8-10 to the DP it’ll be interesting. 

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-27

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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10 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

71 with a DP of 57 with some high clouds. Feels muggy already but add another 8-10 to the DP it’ll be interesting. 

How dare you trigger Phil with talk of 57 being muggy??   Our PNW weather discussion should be in context of DC weather only.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Clouds thickening... epic June rain event incoming.    A wet June is about to get much wetter for western WA.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Pushing the upper 70s in Kirkland ahead of those clouds streaming in. Wouldn't call it humid yet!

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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After not being able to break 60 yesterday, I’m currently sitting at 73 with clouds rolling in. Warm turnaround! Tomorrow looks to be one of those rare events for the area. Looking forward to see how muggy it’ll be.

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

71 with a DP of 57 with some high clouds. Feels muggy already but add another 8-10 to the DP it’ll be interesting. 

It actually feels surprisingly muggy today. Was doing some indoor chores around the house and I was actually sweating — feels sticky icky. 😂 

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5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wow it clouded up quickly! I even just felt a raindrop...I think... 

Don't worry though Andrew, I’m still planning on BBQing on the deck. 

9EF00D9D-98B0-4401-8CF3-F2F9C09FAA3F.jpeg

Likely gonna be several inches in your area and significant flooding.... As the rest of the region watches from fire shelters.

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29 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wow it clouded up quickly! I even just felt a raindrop...I think... 

Don't worry though Andrew, I’m still planning on BBQing on the deck. 

9EF00D9D-98B0-4401-8CF3-F2F9C09FAA3F.jpeg

Started clouding up for awhile but then went back to fairly sunny with just thin high clouds... at least we got another hour of sun before the clouds really thicken for good.    

I have been moving rock and I am very warm.   I am not a wimp who demands 55 degrees to be comfortable while working outside!   I love sweating and feeling the warmth.  👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

How dare you trigger Phil with talk of 57 being muggy??   Our PNW weather discussion should be in context of DC weather only.  😀

Lol there’s a slight element of humidity but I’ve definitely felt much more noticeable humidity in other places like Hawaii and Texas. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-27

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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1 hour ago, Cloud said:

It actually feels surprisingly muggy today. Was doing some indoor chores around the house and I was actually sweating — feels sticky icky. 😂 

Got up to 72 today now its 71...it’s not particularly warm but it feels pretty warm still. Interested to see how sticky it gets tomorrow evening. 

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-27

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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16 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wow it clouded up quickly! I even just felt a raindrop...I think... 

Don't worry though Andrew, I’m still planning on BBQing on the deck. 

9EF00D9D-98B0-4401-8CF3-F2F9C09FAA3F.jpeg

Got some salmon and halibut and a cedar plank soaking. Mmm boy.  

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Down to 73° in Bothell. Clouds are almost thick enough to block the sun completely. 

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

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The 18z ECMWF is quite bullish on a fairly active thunderstorm on Tuesday tracking over SW WA and into the south and central Puget Sound area.  Still little action shown tomorrow in spite of decent CAPE.  Maybe it will just be too soggy of an environment to favor lightning.  

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 18z ECMWF is quite bullish on a fairly active thunderstorm on Tuesday tracking over SW WA and into the south and central Puget Sound area.  Still little action shown tomorrow in spite of decent CAPE.  Maybe it will just be too soggy of an environment to favor lightning.  

I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a nothing at all or few rumbles of thunder still. Probably nothing too noteworthy...too much low cloud cover and the upper levels will be warm too. Tuesday has always looked like the most likely day. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-27

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 18z ECMWF is quite bullish on a fairly active thunderstorm on Tuesday tracking over SW WA and into the south and central Puget Sound area.  Still little action shown tomorrow in spite of decent CAPE.  Maybe it will just be too soggy of an environment to favor lightning.  

Big cap in place, very little in the way of vertical forcing through the parcel, esp. with near 100% cloud cover. 

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Interestingly the 12z ECMWF showed the warmest day in the next 10 only reaching 75.  Still a tremendous amount of uncertainty regarding any heat possibility in the near future.  Phil has been saying cool for late June / early July.  Probably for good reason.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, JBolin said:

Big cap in place, very little in the way of vertical forcing through the parcel, esp. with near 100% cloud cover. 

Yeah...very cloudy and damp at the low levels.  It is surprising to see the decent CAPE values though. 

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Interestingly the 12z ECMWF showed the warmest day in the next only reaching 75.  Still a tremendous amount of uncertainty regarding any heat possibility in the near future.  Phil has been saying cool for late June / early July.  Probably for good reason.

75 on the ECMWF usually means low 80s.

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Drizzling 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Euro keeps spitting out some eye raising #'s for the central valley next Thursday and Friday. Possible all time record highs for Sacramento in the 115F range. Death valley looks to possibly break the world record for reliable measured temp with a possible 130F or higher. Death valley is about 4 hours from my house. Tempted to drive down there to experience it 

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