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June 2021 Pacific Northwest Obs


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1 minute ago, Link said:

It's quite comical how 'normal' is considered cooler then average now and near record warmth is the new normal.

It's been colder than normal up here for 11 or 12 days now.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just heard distant thunder... looks like a strong cell is just missing me to the southeast.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Western ridging has consequences. 😞

 

Its been dumping rain in WA which does not really help of course... but there is almost no chance of rain in CA at this time of year regardless of the pattern.   The only hope for the SW is a big 4CH and lots of monsoon moisture. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Its been dumping rain in WA which does not really help... but there is almost no chance of rain in CA at this time of year regardless of the pattern.   The only hope for the SW is a big 4CH and lots of monsoon moisture. 

Doesn’t have to be a big 4CH. Just favorably located. 

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10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Less than a week away from decreasing daylight! 😊🙌

Vampires rejoice!   This summer has been brutal so far.   60s and frequent rain.

Side note... 6 short months until increasing daylight.   Winter better hurry up.  😀

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Looks like the main action is going to bypass the Seattle area.    Might even miss my area to the south.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yep... going to miss my area as well.   Looks like Enumclaw got pounded though.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The sky looks almost capable of delivering some lightning just to the east of here.  All in all the models probably underestimated how fast the cooler / drier low level air would arrive.  If there is any lightning it will be much more isolated than the models had advertised I'm afraid.

As for the next couple of weeks...the 18z GFS shows the offshore ridge making several retrogression attempts during week two.  A significant trough by months end is highly possible.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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53 minutes ago, Phil said:

Western ridging has consequences. 😞

 

Hard to believe much of the West has been in a heatwave.  It's been cool here for quite a while now.  Once that ridge pops up off the West Coast the Western heat will gradually be forced eastward.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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I like the look of the 18Z GEFS for the weekend after this coming weekend... which is almost the end of the month.   

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-4752000.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Vampires rejoice!   This summer has been brutal so far.   60s and frequent rain.

Side note... 6 short months until increasing daylight.   Winter better hurry up.  😀

Have you made your 4th of July reservations yet?

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Have you made your 4th of July reservations yet?

Of course!   Always have a back up plan.    👍

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Kinda disappointing how the storms worked out today but jim made a good call on it earlier. Kind of getting shadowed by the Olympics here. Oh well will probably be more convective chances over the summer not gonna lose sleep over it. 0.06” today and 2.38” for the month. Unless we get some more rain at the tail end of the month that’ll be the final total just 0.03” shy of a record total rainfall for June.

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Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Today has been a flop. 
Currently mostly cloudy and 64. 
0.00” on the day. 

Yeah definitely a flop for all the hype. Lots of times the best storms are the under hyped ones that sneak up on us it seems. I don’t remember much hype before the mega thunderstorm on 9/7/19 and that ended up being one of the best storms in the Seattle area of the 2010s. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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5 minutes ago, The Blob said:

 

 

3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah definitely a flop for all the hype. Lots of times the best storms are the under hyped ones that sneak up on us it seems. I don’t remember much hype before the mega thunderstorm on 9/7/19 and that ended up being one of the best storms in the Seattle area of the 2010s. 

Same goes for many of the big windstorms, the hyped ones usually flop while the under predicted ones end up being extremely impressive! 

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Storms keep missing me to the south this year, and it’s happening again today. Enumclaw got rocked and we just missed it here. Oh well, got plenty of rain Sunday, so can enjoy the upcoming warm stretch without concern.

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2 hours ago, T-Town said:

Gonna try to lure it this way by starting to mow the lawn. 

D36AC792-9415-437D-A8C2-84F38AEB8305.jpeg

That's a really good shot!

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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0.13” today. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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31 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Had quite the downpour here a bit ago but no thunder. Just plain ol rain. 

Disappointed with the lack of thunderstorm development today. Hopefully we can get some good storms later this summer.

2019 and 2020 had quite a few good ones. So far nothing really noteable in 2021. 

Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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Nice little downpour here now to put an exclamation point on this very rainy early summer period.   

I sort of feel that little bit of excitement that some people feel when a marine push arrives after a warm spell... knowing that this band of rain moving through signals the beginning of gorgeous weather ahead.    In my opinion... the best part of living in the PNW is when it turns really nice in the summer.    🥰

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Well that was fun.  I'm not sure if there was any lightning anywhere in the Puget Sound region.

On another note SEA has averaged below normal 10 of the last 11 days and has not reached 70 since the 3rd.  Pretty impressive run of cool weather.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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3 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah definitely a flop for all the hype. Lots of times the best storms are the under hyped ones that sneak up on us it seems. I don’t remember much hype before the mega thunderstorm on 9/7/19 and that ended up being one of the best storms in the Seattle area of the 2010s. 

September was on a roll for thunder for a few years there.  That one was insane.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Nice little downpour here now to put an exclamation point on this very rainy early summer period.   

I sort of feel that little bit of excitement that some people feel when a marine push arrives after a warm spell... knowing that this band of rain moving through signals the beginning of gorgeous weather ahead.    In my opinion... the best part of living in the PNW is when it turns really nice in the summer.    🥰

I was thinking about that earlier actually. I'm excited and really looking forward to the change from rainy/cold to sunny/warm (but not too hot) weather after today. Eager to get back to the perfect summer weather that we get here in the PNW.

Down vote away, Jesse.

 david schwimmer middle finger GIF

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I was thinking about that earlier actually. I'm excited and really looking forward to the change from rainy/cold to sunny/warm (but not too hot) weather after today. Eager to get back to the perfect summer weather that we get here in the PNW.

Down vote away, Jesse.

 david schwimmer middle finger GIF

Same. My corn and peppers in the garden need some sun and warmth 

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18 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I was thinking about that earlier actually. I'm excited and really looking forward to the change from rainy/cold to sunny/warm (but not too hot) weather after today. Eager to get back to the perfect summer weather that we get here in the PNW.

Down vote away, Jesse.

 david schwimmer middle finger GIF

But Jesse might be bored.  Oh no!   I guess the weather must always be nasty so he is entertained.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This post was a response to Jesse and did not age well... the first half of June might be considered "yucky" by some for the opposite reason you were thinking.   In reality the first half of June has been wet and troughy and the third week of June looks warmer and drier.    Likely comes down to your timing being off.    I am trying to extrapolate that to your next predicted troughy period.

post.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This post was a response to Jesse and did not age well... the first half of June might be considered "yucky" by some for the opposite reason you were thinking.   In reality the first half of June has been wet and troughy and the third week of June looks warmer and drier.    Likely comes down to your timing being off.    I am trying to extrapolate that to your next predicted troughy period.

post.png

If Phil stuck to the tried and dew method of predicting warm ups followed by cool downs, he'd never miss.

A forum for the end of the world.

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My response back to Phil on 5/23 took into account his timing issues and I was able to correctly predict the timing of this recent troughy period almost perfectly.   I was a little too slow on the improvement part though.     Phil guides us... but his timing almost always needs to be adjusted.  😀

 

post 1.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I was thinking about that earlier actually. I'm excited and really looking forward to the change from rainy/cold to sunny/warm (but not too hot) weather after today. Eager to get back to the perfect summer weather that we get here in the PNW.

Down vote away, Jesse.

 david schwimmer middle finger GIF

Dog Swimming GIF by The Dodo

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34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This post was a response to Jesse and did not age well... the first half of June might be considered "yucky" by some for the opposite reason you were thinking.   In reality the first half of June has been wet and troughy and the third week of June looks warmer and drier.    Likely comes down to your timing being off.    I am trying to extrapolate that to your next predicted troughy period.

post.png

Yeah, E-Hem standing wave overperformed just enough. In recent years I’ve become so accustomed to watching the WPAC take off with every intraseasonal trigger I was (erroneously) hedging in that direction. Live and learn!

The fact it didn’t take that route, however, speaks volumes (to me) as to the nature of the background state this year. As I suspect you will see as the pattern evolves late this month into July.

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