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June 2021 Pacific Northwest Obs


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12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

A top tier warm June does not usually lead to a cold July in Seattle.

Just recently we had a top tier warm June in 2009, 2013, and 2015.    And in all those years... July was also significantly warmer than normal.

 

 

What it does lead to is people roasting’ 

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

A top tier warm June does not usually lead to a cold July in Seattle.

Just recently we had a top tier warm June in 2009, 2013, and 2015.    And in all those years... July was also significantly warmer than normal.

 

 

Those make zero sense as analogs, though.

2015 and 2009 were developing strong/super ni√Īos.¬†Pretty much¬†the inverse¬†of the 2021 evolution. And 2013 was +AMM/+PMM by the middle of June. Also inverted from 2021.

Most of the better analogs for this year are clustered in the late 1980s and 1990s.

 

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If any of you missed it, we had a stunning sunset tonight… was outside watching it. No pictures but you can check out social media for some. 
 

despite what’s being shown on the models, this region is just too precious to hate. 

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Speaking of ENSO, the WPAC has been drained pretty well by these downwelling OKWs.

Looks like one final (weak) downwelling wave ongoing at the moment. After which I suspect we’ll see an upwelling wave commence. 

D5CC38A8-E326-465C-87D8-3F709D56142A.gif

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GFS says let's keep it going with 101 in Seattle next Tuesday.    And shows like 6 days in a row above 90.   How did our tropical specialists on here miss what could be the greatest heat wave ever recorded?    We have been warned repeatedly about August and September... but if it's going to be hotter than June then we have a major problem on our hands.   

gfs-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-5011200.png

Goofus.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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39 minutes ago, Phil said:

If it verifies at that longitude, a cooler solution is (climatologically) favored to arise. Wouldn’t be the first time we’ve had systemic errors across guidance.

So soon have we forgotten last February.

February was warmer than normal here.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 58F (Oct 18)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

None of those make any sense as analogs, though.

2015 and 2009 were developing strong/super ni√Īos. Pretty much¬†the inverse¬†of the 2021 evolution. And 2013 was +AMM/+PMM by the middle of June. Also inverted from 2021.

Most of the better analogs for this year are clustered in the late 1980s and 1990s.

 

Did some brute research on SeaTac monthly mean anomalies from 1985-1999. Here are the years with a positive June anomaly, and their following July's anomaly.

1986: June +0.6, July -5.4 (By way of mean temperatures, July was actually colder than June by 0.9F that year)

1987: June +0.6, July -2.9

1989: June +1.2, July -2.6

**1992: June +2.9, July -0.4

1995: June +0.7, July -0.1

Interesting to note that all of these years flipped to a chilly July. And although this is likely an artifact of random variability, it's neat to see that each July's cool anomaly was muted consecutively.

**If any of these years is going to be a Phil analog, it's going to be this one. A pretty hot June average, transcendent mid-month wet period, and a multi-week heat event towards the second half of the month, followed by a muted chilly/normal signal in July. If that analog comes to fruition, it should be pleasing to note that July ended up wetter than normal. For those curious, that August ended up +1.0; and September -3.5 after a moderate heat event  to open the month.

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42 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Did some brute research on SeaTac monthly mean anomalies from 1985-1999. Here are the years with a positive June anomaly, and their following July's anomaly.

1986: June +0.6, July -5.4 (By way of mean temperatures, July was actually colder than June by 0.9F that year)

1987: June +0.6, July -2.9

1989: June +1.2, July -2.6

**1992: June +2.9, July -0.4

1995: June +0.7, July -0.1

Interesting to note that all of these years flipped to a chilly July. And although this is likely an artifact of random variability, it's neat to see that each July's cool anomaly was muted consecutively.

**If any of these years is going to be a Phil analog, it's going to be this one. A pretty hot June average, transcendent mid-month wet period, and a multi-week heat event towards the second half of the month, followed by a muted chilly/normal signal in July. If that analog comes to fruition, it should be pleasing to note that July ended up wetter than normal. For those curious, that August ended up +1.0; and September -3.5 after a moderate heat event  to open the month.

Thank you for this. Excellent post. :)

1989 is in my top-5.

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I can‚Äôt believe¬†what‚Äôs¬†about to happen this summer.¬†ūüėĒ

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 58F (Oct 18)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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The 00z Euro is literally the worst possible summer pattern for the CONUS. Just a sea of orange and red smothering the continent.

The Atlantic Hadley Cell is so d**n wide the trade winds are slamming into the east coast. That doesn’t happen. Stupid.

 

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Probably one of the ugliest Euro runs I’ve seen in my entire life, this fine evening.

Ninja’d me.

It’s the worst run I can remember.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Sadistic summer perfection.

Seems like you are slowly moving from the IceAgeNow!¬†to the ‚Äúwe‚Äôre in it for the long haul‚ÄĚ camp, with regard to the coming years and decades.¬†Welcome aboard!

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5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Seems like you are slowly moving from the IceAgeNow!¬†to the ‚Äúwe‚Äôre in it for the long haul‚ÄĚ camp, with regard to the coming years and decades.¬†Welcome aboard!

High hopes, low expectations.

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714864136_sfct.us_nw(2).thumb.png.064f9b6810ec9aaea2ecc4a0c586c69d.png

I can't stress this enough how revolting this image is, but Sunday somehow one-up's Saturday. Ridge axis stays over the region instead of tilting east like on the 00z.

There aren't many model runs that have genuinely scared me. Maybe October of 2018 before the windstorm bust. But this freaks me out. Hopefully it's just an artifact of the new GFS architecture and its struggles with diabatic heating amplification.

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I feel like I'm living in a nightmare. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Starting to get the feeling it may be September/October before we see any rain or temperatures below normal. Would be interesting to see when the next sub-70 high will be at Portland. Late September? 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just had an outdoor sensor pick up a significant spike in radon which has a weak connection to earthquake forecasting. It has been a while since we had anything regionally shaky.

Probably a good day to stock up on bottled water and granola bars.

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14 minutes ago, iFred said:

Just had an outdoor sensor pick up a significant spike in radon which has a weak connection to earthquake forecasting. It has been a while since we had anything regionally shaky.

Probably a good day to stock up on bottled water and granola bars.

Do you know which isotope?

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54 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Starting to get the feeling it may be September/October before we see any rain or temperatures below normal. Would be interesting to see when the next sub-70 high will be at Portland. Late September? 

We’ll get a smoke inversion high in the 60s before then. 
 

1954. 

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2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Saturday is going to end up even hotter on the 06z than the 00z. Jesus.

$Well I'm a chemtrail cowboy..Love spraying all day long. Emptying my tanks on you while I sing this song 

 

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10 minutes ago, iFred said:

222

Meanwhile as you fiddle with your earthquake doo daddy: $Well I'm a chemtrail cowboy spraying all day long.............emptying my tanks on you while I sing this song. Too many people down there........$ 

Follow the bouncing plane!

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No way the 6z verifies. It just simply doesn’t feel and look right for this climate.
 

But then again, what are we really looking at here? Semantics or the bigger picture? Because a 2-3F difference is not gonna make a difference in bigger scheme of things. It’s going to be hot and I don’t think this model is going to suddenly show a 20F drop into the 80s.

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26 minutes ago, Link said:

Meanwhile as you fiddle with your earthquake doo daddy: $Well I'm a chemtrail cowboy spraying all day long.............emptying my tanks on you while I sing this song. Too many people down there........$ 

Follow the bouncing plane!

Richard?

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Starting to get the feeling it may be September/October before we see any rain or temperatures below normal. Would be interesting to see when the next sub-70 high will be at Portland. Late September? 

Sub-70 high? I can't even imagine a sub-80 high at this point.

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I feel like I am witnessing a death. A death of our ecosystems, our way of life, our region. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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7 hours ago, Phil said:

Speaking of ENSO, the WPAC has been drained pretty well by these downwelling OKWs.

Looks like one final (weak) downwelling wave ongoing at the moment. After which I suspect we’ll see an upwelling wave commence. 

D5CC38A8-E326-465C-87D8-3F709D56142A.gif

I am starting to doubt we can even get down close to normal during the first week of July... let alone some majestic cold trough.   Here is the first 5 days of July per the 00Z EPS... this is not just ensemble spread.   The warmest anomaly is still over the PNW.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-5529600.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I feel like I am witnessing a death. A death of our ecosystems, our way of life, our region. 

Honestly... I am starting to get pretty anxious as well.   This is just stupid.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Fire east of Mt. Hood has grown to 6,700 acres. The one down in Klamath County is at 1,000 acres and threatening 125 homes.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The heat has not even really started yet and I am scouring the models for any hope of rain.   I never do that in the summer.   But I have never seen the models look this hot in June with no end in sight.  It feels pretty surreal right now.   Hopefully July snaps back to normal with a few rain events.    I think what is making me even more anxious is Phil's warning about August and September given what is happening now in June.  

Maybe the rest of summer will be totally different than expected and we look back at this period as just an aberration.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Hopefully this is like some random GFS run in the winter that shows SEA getting down to -10 and has no chance of ever verifying.

But this has to be the most insane GFS run I have ever seen...

gfs-deterministic-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-4255200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Hopefully this is like some random GFS run in the winter that shows SEA get down to -10 and has no chance of ever verifying.

But this has to be the most insane GFS run I have ever seen...

gfs-deterministic-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-4255200.png

It's when the Euro joins the Gfs that I get nervous. The Euro is showing Sacramento hitting 121F on Sunday. Their all time record is 114F. Ummmm ok 

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